243k jobs created in US; unemp at 8.3 - BIG number for Obama

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7BM0AB20120203

Nate Silver says that the break even point for Obama's re-election is 150k/month.* I tend to agree with the sentiment, though if anything he may be understating Obama's position (I think that if job growth averages 150k in the months before the election, Obama has about a 60% change to be re-elected; I would but the 50-50 point lower - maybe 100k.)

In either case, if job growth continues to surge at this rate through the election, we could see another 2008 type election.



* http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/obamas-magic-number-150000-jobs-per-month/

Of course, this belies the hysterical claims of Chicken Littles like Paul Krugman.

We are already in new great depression

Originally posted by sh76
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7BM0AB20120203

Nate Silver says that the break even point for Obama's re-election is 150k/month. I tend to agree with the sentiment, though if anything he may be understating Obama's position (I think that if job growth averages 150k in the months before the election, Obama has about a 60% chang ...[text shortened]... continues to surge at this rate through the election, we could see another 2008 type election.

The labor force was reduced by 1.8 million says the talking head on TV. That taints the number a bit eh?

Originally posted by sh76
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7BM0AB20120203

Nate Silver says that the break even point for Obama's re-election is 150k/month.* I tend to agree with the sentiment, though if anything he may be understating Obama's position (I think that if job growth averages 150k in the months before the election, Obama has about a 60% chan ...[text shortened]... http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/obamas-magic-number-150000-jobs-per-month/

In other news...

The number of Republicans in the country inched up half a percentage point in January, while the number of Democrats dipped to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

During January, 35.9% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.4% in December and the highest number of Republicans measured since December 2010.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
In other news...[quote]The number of Republicans in the country inched up half a percentage point in January, while the number of Democrats dipped to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

During January, 35.9% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.4% in December and the highest number of Republicans measured si ...[text shortened]...
Edit: And I wonder how many of them are just Dems switching parties to vote for Ron Paul!!11!!

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
The labor force was reduced by 1.8 million says the talking head on TV. That taints the number a bit eh?

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
"A survey of households showed the unemployment rate declined even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force. Economists had expected the jobless rate, which has now fallen 0.8 percentage point since August, to hold steady."

Sorry to disappoint.

Originally posted by sh76
Holding steady would not be great news. It wasn't that long ago that unemployment was 4%. Holding steady at 8.3% and thinking that is good news is a terrible lowering of expectations. There's no fundamental reason that unemployment can't go back to 4%.

Here is a chart to worry Romney.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/02/heres_what_to_watch.php?ref=fpblg

However, a few days ago the CBO reported that all the deficit-obsessive cuts to government spending over the next few months may slow or even reverse the recovery. All hope is not yet lost for the Republicans!

Originally posted by sh76
Holding steady would not be great news. It wasn't that long ago that unemployment was 4%. Holding steady at 8.3% and thinking that is good news is a terrible lowering of expectations. There's no fundamental reason that unemployment can't go back to 4%.

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
"A survey of households showed the unemployment rate declined even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force. Economists had expected the jobless rate, which has now fallen 0.8 percentage point since August, to hold steady."

Sorry to disappoint.

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-

I'm going to expect that if the economy continues to improve that Republicans will continue the desperate spins and whining.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/03/1061394/-Initial-Republican-response-to-jobs-report:-uher?via=blog_1

Originally posted by Sleepyguy
From Zero Hedge...

[quote]A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 milli ...[text shortened]... dge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/People%20Not%20In%20Labor%20Force.jpg