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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    08 Mar '16 20:56 / 1 edit
    Primaries for both parties in Michigan and Mississippi.

    Primary for the GOP in Idaho; caucus in Hawaii (won't be staying up waiting for the results in that one).

    For the Dems, Mississippi should be another Southern walkover for Hillary. Michigan is a critical test; Bernie desperately needs to at least be competitive there to re-establish some momentum and derail the Clinton inevitability train. There's some polling showing the race tightening there though Hillary's lead still looks like it is in low double digits.

    There's been no polling in Idaho and Hawaii and I have no idea who might win there. Mississippi is Cruz's last chance to steal a Deep South State away from the Donald; the last poll there showed Trump with a huge lead over Cruz and Rubio but that was taken 8 days ago and the dynamics of the race have certainly changed since then with Cruz surging and Rubio falling. A win for the Canadian there is a possibility.

    Most of the Michigan polls still show Trump with a solid lead over Cruz and Kasich but there are some indications of movement towards both esp. Kasich. He could vault into the first tier of the Anti-Trumpians if he could win here and his home State of Ohio next week (which is winner take all). A Cruz win in Michigan would seriously change the race as he hasn't done very well in the North so far; if he did finish first there, he might very well eclipse Trump as the front runner.

    Gotta love it.
  2. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    08 Mar '16 23:56
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Primaries for both parties in Michigan and Mississippi.

    Primary for the GOP in Idaho; caucus in Hawaii (won't be staying up waiting for the results in that one).

    For the Dems, Mississippi should be another Southern walkover for Hillary. Michigan is a critical test; Bernie desperately needs to at least be competitive there to re-establish some momen ...[text shortened]... did finish first there, he might very well eclipse Trump as the front runner.

    Gotta love it.
    Go Kasich!!

    The new great white hope.
  3. Standard member bill718
    Enigma
    09 Mar '16 02:00 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Primaries for both parties in Michigan and Mississippi.

    Primary for the GOP in Idaho; caucus in Hawaii (won't be staying up waiting for the results in that one).

    For the Dems, Mississippi should be another Southern walkover for Hillary. Michigan is a critical test; Bernie desperately needs to at least be competitive there to re-establish some momen ...[text shortened]... did finish first there, he might very well eclipse Trump as the front runner.

    Gotta love it.
    Kasich and Trump are doing well so far, Rubio seems to be fading. Bernie ahead of Hillary in MI by a nose w/ the polls just closing. Unless there is revolt on the floor of the GOP convention (which is a real possibility) It still looks like Trump vs Clinton.

    P.S. If Donald Trump gets to the convention with the majority of the delegates, but not enough to lock up the nomination...be prepared for some fireworks.
  4. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    09 Mar '16 02:11
    It's been called for Trump in Mississippi and he's pulling away from Kasich in Michigan (Cruz has been holding about 15,000 behind Kasich). Rubio is not going to make the 15% threshold and thus will get zero delegates there. A bad night for Anti-Trumpism.

    Hillary won crushingly in Mississippi as expected. Bernie looks like he may pull off a stunner in Michigan though it's still within 10,000 votes. If he does, Clinton doesn't look quite as inevitable with Ohio next week.
  5. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    09 Mar '16 02:12
    Originally posted by bill718
    Kasich and Trump are doing well so far, Rubio seems to be fading. Bernie ahead of Hillary in MI by a nose w/ the polls just closing. Unless there is revolt on the floor of the GOP convention (which is a real possibility) It still looks like Trump vs Clinton.

    P.S. If Donald Trump gets to the convention with the majority of the delegates, but not enough to lock up the nomination...be prepared for some fireworks.
    I assume you mean a plurality of the delegates; if he has a majority of them he wins.

    Michigan has been called for Trump who's performing there almost exactly at his 37.3% RCP polling average.
  6. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    09 Mar '16 02:19
    I'm reading that there have been few votes counted from Detroit which is heavily African-American and thus likely to go big for Clinton if prior trends hold. Thus Bernie's lead might be somewhat of a mirage.
  7. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    09 Mar '16 04:38
    Just watched Trump's speech/press conference/stream of consciousness/infomercial.

    Surreal. Starting to think this guy might actually be president. A Trump Steak in every pot. It's Bizzaro world.
  8. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    09 Mar '16 04:54
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I'm reading that there have been few votes counted from Detroit which is heavily African-American and thus likely to go big for Clinton if prior trends hold. Thus Bernie's lead might be somewhat of a mirage.
    AP calls MI for Sanders. Amazing upset though he still has little hope of winning the nomination.
  9. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    09 Mar '16 05:20 / 1 edit
    Bernie wins Michigan. Wow. Can anyone recall a bigger upset victory in a large state primary? The polls had Hillary ahead in Michigan by over 20 points.

    Hillary lied in the debate when she said Bernie did not support the auto industry bailout. Maybe that backfired.
  10. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    09 Mar '16 05:40
    Originally posted by Soothfast
    Bernie wins Michigan. Wow. Can anyone recall a bigger upset victory in a large state primary? The polls had Hillary ahead in Michigan by over 20 points.

    Hillary lied in the debate when she said Bernie did not support the auto industry bailout. Maybe that backfired.
    Nate Silver said it was the biggest ever in terms of polls topping Gary Hart's win over Mondale in New Hampshire when he was down by a polling average of 12 points.

    It's amazing how quickly Rubio has crashed.
  11. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    09 Mar '16 06:07
    Bernie also looks set to win the Democrats Abroad primary by a two-to-one margin, which is worth a total of 13 pledged delegates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_Abroad_primary,_2016
  12. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    09 Mar '16 09:36
    To finish up, Cruz won Idaho and the Donald took Hawaii.

    The Anti-Trumps must be a bit disheartened; they desperately need for a nonTrump to win the winner take alls next week in Florida and Ohio but favorite son Rubio has completely collapsed and Kasich's third place finish in Michigan well behind Trump doesn't encourage a lot of confidence that he can rally from behind in his home state.
  13. Standard member shavixmir
    Guppy poo
    09 Mar '16 12:02
    Come on Trump! You can do it!
  14. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    09 Mar '16 12:47
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    It's amazing how quickly Rubio has crashed.
    Makes sense to me. He never had the base to begin with. Right wing extremists such as myself had already written him off for his immigration heresy, and then Christie unmasked him as a shallow motor-mouth for everyone else.
  15. 09 Mar '16 17:12
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    To finish up, Cruz won Idaho and the Donald took Hawaii.

    The Anti-Trumps must be a bit disheartened; they desperately need for a nonTrump to win the winner take alls next week in Florida and Ohio but favorite son Rubio has completely collapsed and Kasich's third place finish in Michigan well behind Trump doesn't encourage a lot of confidence that he can rally from behind in his home state.
    Clinton is uncorking an extra bottle tonight.