Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscribermchill
    Cryptic
    Behind the scenes
    Joined
    27 Jun '16
    Moves
    1500
    15 Jan '19 19:58
    I just watched British Prime Minister Theresa May suffer a big defeat on the latest Brexit plan. If the British people voted to leave the EU and the British government can't agree on how to do it, what happens??
  2. Joined
    04 Feb '05
    Moves
    29132
    15 Jan '19 20:11
    @mchill said
    I just watched British Prime Minister Theresa May suffer a big defeat on the latest Brexit plan. If the British people voted to leave the EU and the British government can't agree on how to do it, what happens??
    no deal brexit happens

    The full brexit experience, all features unlocked.
  3. Subscribermoonbus
    Uber-Nerd
    Joined
    31 May '12
    Moves
    3025
    15 Jan '19 20:16
    @mchill said
    I just watched British Prime Minister Theresa May suffer a big defeat on the latest Brexit plan. If the British people voted to leave the EU and the British government can't agree on how to do it, what happens??
    Muddle through ... as Britain always does.
  4. Joined
    07 Feb '09
    Moves
    141084
    15 Jan '19 22:06
    @mchill
    Exit-Brexit an option ?
  5. Joined
    15 Jun '10
    Moves
    33499
    15 Jan '19 22:21
    @mchill said
    I just watched British Prime Minister Theresa May suffer a big defeat on the latest Brexit plan. If the British people voted to leave the EU and the British government can't agree on how to do it, what happens??
    Everything is still speculation, but she may well win the vote of no confidence, such is the parlous state of the opposition, so parliament may have rejected her deal, but not rejected her. There could even now be some renegotiation with the EU, but it seems that things are pretty much set in stone, so it looks like that way leads to a hard 'Brexit'.

    If she loses the vote then there could be a general election, which would be a hard one to call, but Mr Corbyn is more of a Eurosceptic than Ms May, who was actually a 'remainer', so that probably wouldn't make any difference to 'Brexit' anyway.

    There are still outside possibilities of a second referendum or even stopping 'Brexit' altogether, but these options now look very unlikely, as they always have.

    So, probably hard 'Brexit' here we come, with all that that implies (and even that isn't really known yet, and I won't get into it), anyway I've moved all of my movable money from London to Singapore, just in case, you know....
  6. Joined
    02 Jan '06
    Moves
    10912
    16 Jan '19 00:402 edits
    @mchill said
    I just watched British Prime Minister Theresa May suffer a big defeat on the latest Brexit plan. If the British people voted to leave the EU and the British government can't agree on how to do it, what happens??
    She has them vote on it again, and again, and again, and AGAIN!!! until they become so annoyed that they change their minds.

    A democratic socialist is all about democracy, until it steps on their toes. Then all of a sudden, they either need a recount or a revote, or they just need better educated.
  7. SubscriberSuzianne
    Misfit Queen
    Isle of Misfit Toys
    Joined
    08 Aug '03
    Moves
    36172
    16 Jan '19 02:00
    @whodey said
    She has them vote on it again, and again, and again, and AGAIN!!! until they become so annoyed that they change their minds.

    A democratic socialist is all about democracy, until it steps on their toes. Then all of a sudden, they either need a recount or a revote, or they just need better educated.
    Hey, whodey, I know you think you can tell everyone what to do, but for the love of God, leave them alone. Let them fight it out among themselves. It's their country, not yours.
  8. Standard membershavixmir
    Guppy poo
    Sewers of Holland
    Joined
    31 Jan '04
    Moves
    58573
    16 Jan '19 04:43
    A hard brexit has to be explained. The reality of that is so stupid, only the mad would choose it over anything else.

    If there are no trade deals with the EU set in place, what happens?
    WTO guidelines is what happens.
    Unless you have trade agreements, you (in this case the EU) have to treat every country exactly the same. So no benefits, equal import taxation, etc.
    43% of exports and more than 49% of imports are with the EU.
    This will essentially cripple the UK economy and hamper the EU economy.

    Then there are things like aeroplanes. The UK has EU agreements about flying. With a hard brexit, the UK will have to renegotiate with each seperate country about using its airspace. Until they have, they can’t fly over Europe and Europe can’t fly over Britain.

    Then there’s the Irish border.

    And more than 200 such important matters (like exchange students, travel, living in other countries, fishing, agriculture, etc.) that will stop. Some will fall back on WTO rules, some may even have basic international frameworks to rely on, most don’t.

    Something simple like the GDPR (privacy laws) demands an adequacy ruling for non-EU (+3) countries. Hard brexit = no privacy adequacy or “meanwhile” agreement.
    This means that data processing can’t have anything to do with Britain.

    To sum it up: idiocy.
    Nobody in their right minds would opt for it.
    Anybody shouting for a hard brexit does not know what the consequences are or are so wrapped up in a union jack that there’s no more oxygen reaching their brains or are so full of rage and hatred that they shouldn’t be listened to.

    Before this whole malarkey started, I wrote: nothing much will change. Slightly less foreigners in Britain, slightly less trade (but most will be secured by leaving human mobility open for the most part) and Britain will adhere to most EU rules, without having any say in it anymore.

    This, in my opinion, is still the only outcome of the brexit.
    And goodbye and good riddence, if you ask me.

    However, a hard brexit would indeed dash my predictions on it. It’s just so mental that nobody would really actually choose it.
  9. Subscribermoonbus
    Uber-Nerd
    Joined
    31 May '12
    Moves
    3025
    16 Jan '19 06:01
    @shavixmir

    These things could and should have been explained to British voters in the run-up to the referendum. It was Cameron's failure that that did not happen. Instead, the pre-referendum debate descended into a gut-fear dis-information campaign: "Immigrants are invading our country! We have to get control over our laws and our borders!"

    As another world leader is also currently discovering, getting control over one's borders cannot be accomplished unilaterally, because there is always another country involved on the other side of the border.

    Yup, Britain got control over its laws, all right — the current state of Parliament shows exactly what that really looks like in Britain: the inmates are running the asylum.
  10. Joined
    15 Jun '10
    Moves
    33499
    16 Jan '19 06:50
    @shavixmir said
    A hard brexit has to be explained. The reality of that is so stupid, only the mad would choose it over anything else.

    If there are no trade deals with the EU set in place, what happens?
    WTO guidelines is what happens.
    Unless you have trade agreements, you (in this case the EU) have to treat every country exactly the same. So no benefits, equal import taxation, etc.
    4 ...[text shortened]... d indeed dash my predictions on it. It’s just so mental that nobody would really actually choose it.
    And yet, it could happen...The angels could yet descend and blow the magic dust of common sense and broader horizons over London, but this, too, is only speculation at this stage.
  11. Subscribermoonbus
    Uber-Nerd
    Joined
    31 May '12
    Moves
    3025
    16 Jan '19 06:551 edit
    @indonesia-phil said
    And yet, it could happen...The angels could yet descend and blow the magic dust of common sense and broader horizons over London, but this, too, is only speculation at this stage.
    Angel dust ? Are you ... experienced ? O ha, purple haze, those were the daze.
  12. Standard memberVelns
    Latvian Trickster
    Latvia
    Joined
    19 Feb '09
    Moves
    321
    16 Jan '19 06:57
    In reality there is no such thing as “hard” Brexit, or a soft Brexit; there is only hard and soft negotiation. There is well ‘prepared’ Brexit and there is poorly or ‘unprepared’ Brexit. If one is ‘prepared’ then one is not beholden and therefore one is in a position to hard negotiate. The UK’s problem is not “brexit” it is one of preparedness to hard negotiate.

    To be able to hard negotiate a protagonist must have a clearly defined ‘walk away’ position and this must be resolute and made clear to the other side, the other protagonist, at the outset. They must believe it too. The UK has taken a diplomatic approach to the negotiations and found itself in a situation with no time (the most valuable resource in any negotiation), no prepared ‘walk away’ position and therefore with its metaphorical testicles in the clutches of the opposition.

    The solution is therefore quite clear; obtain more time, be more prepared and resolute to ‘walk away’. Or...go for a second referendum. However the latter will cause the nation to consume itself in a civil war of sorts and the former is unpalatable to the power-brokers who are really pulling the strings.

    It’s all very interesting.
  13. Standard membershavixmir
    Guppy poo
    Sewers of Holland
    Joined
    31 Jan '04
    Moves
    58573
    16 Jan '19 06:58
    @moonbus said
    @shavixmir

    These things could and should have been explained to British voters in the run-up to the referendum. It was Cameron's failure that that did not happen. Instead, the pre-referendum debate descended into a gut-fear dis-information campaign: "Immigrants are invading our country! We have to get control over our laws and our borders!"

    As another world leader is a ...[text shortened]... Parliament shows exactly what that really looks like in Britain: the inmates are running the asylum.
    They were explained.
    Many people chose not pay it any attention.
  14. Subscribermoonbus
    Uber-Nerd
    Joined
    31 May '12
    Moves
    3025
    16 Jan '19 07:08
    @velns said
    In reality there is no such thing as “hard” Brexit, or a soft Brexit; there is only hard and soft negotiation. There is well ‘prepared’ Brexit and there is poorly or ‘unprepared’ Brexit. If one is ‘prepared’ then one is not beholden and therefore one is in a position to hard negotiate. The UK’s problem is not “brexit” it is one of preparedness to hard negotiate.

    To be able ...[text shortened]... unpalatable to the power-brokers who are really pulling the strings.

    It’s all very interesting.
    In other words, there is short-term prevaricating, and there is long-term prevaricating.
  15. Subscribermoonbus
    Uber-Nerd
    Joined
    31 May '12
    Moves
    3025
    16 Jan '19 07:292 edits
    @shavixmir said
    They were explained.
    Many people chose not pay it any attention.
    It is possible to run a country's foreign policy based on a complicated system of bi-lateral agreements. It is possible to run a country's internal policies based on stable coalition governments. It is possible to keep all of these arrangements consistent without alienating half of the voting population -- provided there is the political will to work towards consensus, which every political party can sign on to in good faith, instead of compromise (where no one gets what he really wants). The Swiss have been doing it very successfully for years.

    I think that a lot of UK Leave voters were profoundly ignorant of what would be involved, legally, politically, and economically, in getting dis-engaged from the EU. They apparently believed that the UK could become politically independent without any unpleasant legal or economic consequences. It is becoming clearer by the day that simply walking away from 50+ years of international treaties with 25+ other nations is anything but simple. (Switzerland could not simply walk away from 50+ years of bi-lateral treaties with 25+ other countries either.) It is going to be very messy for the UK, and I'm sorry to say it, but a lot people warned of this before the referendum.
Back to Top