A few months ago, the chances of a historical midterm for the Republicans was looking good. To make it a historical election, the GOP would have to gain 10 seats in the senate to wrest control from the Dems. Anything less than that and you have just another midterm.
Since then, the GOP has:
- Nominated intellectual lightweight Carly Fiorina in CAL, which means that Boxer gets a bye when she could have faced a serious challenge
- Nominated wingnut Sharron Angle in Nevada, giving Dirty harry a new lease on life
- Nominated Rand Paul in KY, who had a "macaca" moment when he froze in response to the Rachel Maddow softball about segregated lunch counters. In a race that the Dems should have no business competing in this year, even this race could be competitive
- Failed to recruit Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, giving Feingold a bye, when Thompson probably would have beaten him
- Failed to recruit George Pataki in NY to go after Hillary's old seat, now in the unsteady hands of Kristen Gillinbrand
- Had incumbent dead duck Chris Dodd drop out, installing a much stronger candidate in his place (this was bad luck, not the GOP's fault).
- Had incumbent Arlen Specter primaried when he probably would have been easy meat for Toomey (again, bad luck)
It's amazing that nobody seems to be noticing. Everyone seems to be moseying along, assuming a big GOP year this November. But, whereas my projected range was, a few months ago, GOP +7 to GOP +10; I have to revise that downward right now to GOP +3 to GOP +6
Plus, Obama does seem to be getting stronger now that the healthcare bill is out of the news cycle. This might be a very disappointing November for Republicans.