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  1. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    31 Oct '11 00:32
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/30/cain_momentum_continues_south_could_be_key_111870.html

    He’s carving out an unorthodox — and some say impossible — path to the White House, largely eschewing early voting states to focus heavily on the South — where tea party groups, social conservatives and evangelical voters that make up the backbone of his support hold sway. It’s been weeks since Cain has set foot in Iowa or New Hampshire. Instead, he’s barnstormed through Tennessee and Alabama, states that don’t hold primaries until March.

    “The South looks very, very good for us,” Mark Block, Cain’s campaign manager, said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Do the early states matter? Of course. But they are not everything.”

    Block argues that next year’s compressed primary calendar means more states will play larger roles. So instead of tromping around New Hampshire trying to win over skeptics, the campaign team is revving up support in states where Cain’s small government, anti-tax message and church revival-style delivery resonate with voters.

    Cain was trying to show that in Alabama, which won’t hold its primary until March 13, and where he was greeted with enthusiastic overflow crowds at every stop. In Talladega, residents were visibly excited by the first visit from a presidential candidate in modern memory.


    I guess Mr. Cain didn't get the memo about southern whites being a bunch of racists, eh?

    Or is the memo simply a baseless stereotyping canard?
  2. 31 Oct '11 00:57
    Originally posted by sh76
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/30/cain_momentum_continues_south_could_be_key_111870.html

    [quote]He’s carving out an unorthodox — and some say impossible — path to the White House, largely eschewing early voting states to focus heavily on the South — where tea party groups, social conservatives and evangelical voters that make up the backbo ...[text shortened]... n whites being a bunch of racists, eh?

    Or is the memo simply a baseless stereotyping canard?
    I've always questioned the conventional wisdom of NH and Iowa being so important. NH is a 2 electoral vote state. Iowa I don't know, but it can't be that large.

    Why don't we ever hear about Florida, or Ohio as important primary States?
  3. 31 Oct '11 01:55
    Originally posted by normbenign
    I've always questioned the conventional wisdom of NH and Iowa being so important. NH is a 2 electoral vote state. Iowa I don't know, but it can't be that large.

    Why don't we ever hear about Florida, or Ohio as important primary States?
    I think because the nomination often occurs before the primaries in Ohio and elsewhere. For example, by the time the GOP primaries hit Ohio in 2008, McCain was the only game in town.
  4. Standard member wittywonka
    Chocolate Expert
    31 Oct '11 06:48
    Originally posted by normbenign
    I've always questioned the conventional wisdom of NH and Iowa being so important. NH is a 2 electoral vote state. Iowa I don't know, but it can't be that large.

    Why don't we ever hear about Florida, or Ohio as important primary States?
    Because they're not "first."

    Even if I buy into the premise (and I don't that much) that staggering primary election dates enables weaker and lesser-known candidates to have a chance, I see no reason why certain states have "earned" monopoly status on the whole theater production.
  5. 31 Oct '11 07:22
    Why aren't all the primaries held at the same time?
  6. Subscriber FMF
    a.k.a. John W Booth
    31 Oct '11 07:34
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    Why aren't all the primaries held at the same time?
    Showbusiness is not your thing, I take it.
  7. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    31 Oct '11 13:23
    Originally posted by normbenign
    I've always questioned the conventional wisdom of NH and Iowa being so important. NH is a 2 electoral vote state. Iowa I don't know, but it can't be that large.

    Why don't we ever hear about Florida, or Ohio as important primary States?
    In 2008 Florida was very important.
  8. Donation rwingett
    Ming the Merciless
    31 Oct '11 13:51
    Originally posted by sh76
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/30/cain_momentum_continues_south_could_be_key_111870.html

    [quote]He’s carving out an unorthodox — and some say impossible — path to the White House, largely eschewing early voting states to focus heavily on the South — where tea party groups, social conservatives and evangelical voters that make up the backbo ...[text shortened]... n whites being a bunch of racists, eh?

    Or is the memo simply a baseless stereotyping canard?
    Sounds a lot like Giuliani's strategy in 2008. Eschew the early voting states and concentrate on the Super Tuesday states. We all know how well that worked out.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    31 Oct '11 13:58
    Originally posted by rwingett
    Sounds a lot like Giuliani's strategy in 2008. Eschew the early voting states and concentrate on the Super Tuesday states. We all know how well that worked out.
    Giuliani made Florida his firewall, which was prior to Super Tuesday. In retrospect, of course, that was a terrible move. He should have competed in New Hampshire, even if not Iowa and SC. There's no reason he couldn't have at least run second in NH.
  10. 31 Oct '11 15:55
    Originally posted by sh76
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/30/cain_momentum_continues_south_could_be_key_111870.html

    [quote]He’s carving out an unorthodox — and some say impossible — path to the White House, largely eschewing early voting states to focus heavily on the South — where tea party groups, social conservatives and evangelical voters that make up the backbo ...[text shortened]... n whites being a bunch of racists, eh?

    Or is the memo simply a baseless stereotyping canard?
    Certainly the media fantasy that the south is conservative/Republican because of racism is a canard.

    But don't worry my liberal friends. For the foreseeable future, outlets such as the NY Times will always be able to scrounge up a few racists so that unthinking liberals don't have to doubt their moral superiority, nor actually think about what any conservatives actually say.
  11. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    31 Oct '11 16:33
    Originally posted by techsouth
    Certainly the media fantasy that the south is conservative/Republican because of racism is a canard.

    But don't worry my liberal friends. For the foreseeable future, outlets such as the NY Times will always be able to scrounge up a few racists so that unthinking liberals don't have to doubt their moral superiority, nor actually think about what any conservatives actually say.
    If think that if Cain wins big in the south, even the NY Times will have trouble perpetuating the idea that southern whites are a bunch of racists.
  12. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    31 Oct '11 17:32 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    If think that if Cain wins big in the south, even the NY Times will have trouble perpetuating the idea that southern whites are a bunch of racists.
    Well I know you don't like evidence but some research methodologies have reached the conclusion that racism among Southern Whites is significantly higher than racism among Whites in general (though admitting that precise measurement is difficult):

    More relevant here, the regression coefficient indicates that about 42 percent of white southerners express
    anger at the idea of a black family moving in next door. Merely asking about a single black family moving in
    elicits a strong visceral reaction from nearly half of the South’s white adult population.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    this
    iterative procedure estimates that one in ten white non-southerners expresses prejudice as we measure it.
    Some will deem this estimate low, and we ourselves expected a higher percentage. On the other hand, our
    requirement for being placed in the prejudiced category— get angry at the idea of a single black family
    moving in next door— is demanding, as we have already noted. Moreover, even 10 percent translates into
    millions of non-southern whites who express out-and-out hostility toward blacks.


    http://www.uky.edu/AS/PoliSci/Peffley/pdf/491H%26PCh3KuklinskiCobb.pdf

    at Page 9.

    Their conclusion:

    But sizeable numbers of white southerners say they continue to hold animosity toward blacks. Many
    get angry at the idea of a black family moving in next door; even more react negatively to interracial dating
    among teenagers. As best we can ascertain, the percentages reach their peak among white southern men, the
    group who maintain most of the economic and political power in the region.

    p. 18.
  13. 31 Oct '11 17:40
    Originally posted by FMF
    Showbusiness is not your thing, I take it.
    No, I like to think politics is a serious affair.
  14. 31 Oct '11 17:55
    Originally posted by sh76
    If think that if Cain wins big in the south, even the NY Times will have trouble perpetuating the idea that southern whites are a bunch of racists.
    Do you really buy into the notion that those who vote in a primary actually reflect a proportional representation of the demographics in a given region? This is the same simpleminded manner of thinking that compels people to say since Obama is President that racism is officially over.
  15. 31 Oct '11 18:41
    Pretty much moot now. His campaign imploded this morning.