I was looking over at 538 which is one of the two most accessible poll aggregates. I found this interesting:
On July 21, 2024, the day before Biden dropped out, the numbers looked like this:
Trump 43.5%
Biden 40.2%
RFK, Jr. 8.7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/
Here's the averages today:
Harris 46.4%
Trump 43.4%
RFK, Jr. 5.2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
So Trump has held absolutely steady, but Harris has gained over 6 points, about half of that from previous RFK, Jr. supporters.
I had made a prediction here that as the race got closer to November, RFK, Jr.'s percentage would fall (as 3rd party candidates invariably do) and that the Democratic candidate (who was Biden at the time) would pick off the great majority as well as flipping undecided independents. Obviously that has happened, but at a much faster pace since Harris replaced Biden.
Many polls consistently say that the majority have an unfavorable view of Trump and have since he entered politics. That leads me to suspect that Trump has a ceiling not much higher then he is at now. Since it's almost certainly going to take over 50% of the vote to win this time, I don't see how he can do it.
Rational analysis and critiques welcomed.
@no1marauder
Polls lie and liars poll. Nobody really wants Prison Slavery Kamala. A vote for Kamala is nothing more than a vote against Trump and independents will vote for Trump, not Prison Slavery Kamala. She stole Trump's no taxes on tips idea. Then Trump stole Kennedy's Bitcoin idea.
Go with the guy that is not stealing political opponent's ideas. Kennedy is the only candidate that is not a shameless thief.
@no1marauder saidThis makes sense. It is unlikely anyone would switch from Trump to Harris.
So Trump has held absolutely steady, but Harris has gained over 6 points, about half of that from previous RFK, Jr. supporters.
@Soothfast saidThe good news being she doesn't need anyone to in order to win decisively.
This makes sense. It is unlikely anyone would switch from Trump to Harris.
@no1marauder saidThat is not true. She needs independents and you know it.
The good news being she doesn't need anyone to in order to win decisively.
I suppose your next lie will be that independents like Kamala.
When you lie is it meant to deceive others or yourself? I have to ask because you are not fooling anyone but democrats who lie to themselves regularly.
@Metal-Brain saidVoters who defined themselves as true Independents (not leaning Democratic or Republican) favored Harris 33% to 20% in this YouGov poll which had Harris leading overall by 2 points. https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf
@no1marauder
Polls lie and liars poll. Nobody really wants Prison Slavery Kamala. A vote for Kamala is nothing more than a vote against Trump and independents will vote for Trump, not Prison Slavery Kamala. She stole Trump's no taxes on tips idea. Then Trump stole Kennedy's Bitcoin idea.
Go with the guy that is not stealing political opponent's ideas. Kennedy is the only candidate that is not a shameless thief.
@Metal-Brain saidI realize you are abundantly stupid, but if you knew how to read you'd understand what I said is she doesn't need to flip any Trump supporters at all.
That is not true. She needs independents and you know it.
I suppose your next lie will be that independents like Kamala.
When you lie is it meant to deceive others or yourself? I have to ask because you are not fooling anyone but democrats who lie to themselves regularly.
@no1marauder saidDo the basic math you moron. 53%
Voters who defined themselves as true Independents (not leaning Democratic or Republican) favored Harris 33% to 20% in this YouGov poll which had Harris leading overall by 2 points. https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf
What about the other 47%? LOL!
No independent would prefer prison slavery kamala to the guy that was almost assassinated. Polls lie and liars poll and you know it.
@Metal-Brain saidYou have got to be the most ignorant tool in this forum.
Do the basic math you moron. 53%
What about the other 47%? LOL!
No independent would prefer prison slavery kamala to the guy that was almost assassinated. Polls lie and liars poll and you know it.
Just admit you don't understand polls.
@Metal-Brain saidStop spamming the forum.
@no1marauder
Polls lie and liars poll. Nobody really wants Prison Slavery Kamala. A vote for Kamala is nothing more than a vote against Trump and independents will vote for Trump, not Prison Slavery Kamala. She stole Trump's no taxes on tips idea. Then Trump stole Kennedy's Bitcoin idea.
Go with the guy that is not stealing political opponent's ideas. Kennedy is the only candidate that is not a shameless thief.
You've said all this before.
@Metal-Brain saidIt's in the crosstabs of the link I gave you, Question 5 on page 9.
Do the basic math you moron. 53%
What about the other 47%? LOL!
No independent would prefer prison slavery kamala to the guy that was almost assassinated. Polls lie and liars poll and you know it.
If you weren't an utter moron you'd be able to read it yourself.
I trust scientific polls by well regarded pollsters more than I trust the ravings of an internet lunatic like yourself.
According to you, we should have "enjoyed" four more years of Trump because Biden was going to be completely destroyed by his "racial jungle" comment from almost 50 years ago. How'd that work out, genius?
@no1marauder saidIsn't it obvious to you that Trump never intended to take down Biden?
It's in the crosstabs of the link I gave you, Question 5 on page 9.
If you weren't an utter moron you'd be able to read it yourself.
I trust scientific polls by well regarded pollsters more than I trust the ravings of an internet lunatic like yourself.
According to you, we should have "enjoyed" four more years of Trump because Biden was going to be completely destroyed by his "racial jungle" comment from almost 50 years ago. How'd that work out, genius?
He didn't say "Racial Jungle Joe" when he could have. Now he will not call Kamala "Prison Slavery Kamala" when he can easily at any time.
Why do you think Trump is holding back his attacks on Kamala? And don't lie and say it is a nothing burger. Tulsi destroyed Kamala when she brought it up and Trump can do the same thing if he chooses to.
Also, Walz is a pathological liar much like Biden. Walz claimed that he was in the PRC during the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square Massacre. One of the authors interviewed him in 2014 when he made this statement, and he later repeated the same falsehood to the media. In reality, Walz did not enter China until September 1989, several months after the massacre
@no1marauder
"I trust scientific polls by well regarded pollsters more than I trust the ravings of an internet lunatic like yourself."
The same pollsters that said Hillary would beat Trump in 2016?
Got you there dude.
@Metal-Brain saidHow do you get through a single day? I mean how do you do it, considering all the wacky things you assume daily?
Isn't it obvious to you that Trump never intended to take down Biden?
He didn't say "Racial Jungle Joe" when he could have. Now he will not call Kamala "Prison Slavery Kamala" when he can easily at any time.
Why do you think Trump is holding back his attacks on Kamala? And don't lie and say it is a nothing burger. Tulsi destroyed Kamala when she brought it up and Trum ...[text shortened]... media. In reality, Walz did not enter China until September 1989, several months after the massacre
For example, how do you drive your car even a short distance without killing numerous pedestrians, considering you probably think cars naturally drive on the sidewalk?
You're so far off-base with even simple concepts, I just don't see how you even manage to feed yourself. What kind of job do you have when you clearly have a completely wacked out idea of what your job even is?
One might think your bad ideas would eventually succumb to gravity and crash down all around you, preventing you from doing even the simplest of tasks. Don't you have to be routinely hospitalized to prevent harm to yourself and others, like they have to do with profoundly stupid people?