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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 02:14
    Might as well get the ball rolling: as of now with 13% of the vote in, Paul has a slim lead with Romney and Santorum neck and neck (each is around 23. Gingrich has about 13% and Perry 10% with Bachmann trailing the field at 6%. My source is: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia

    If the results hold like this, what is the effect on the race? Will Bachmann and/or Perry bow out? Can Paul and Santorum build any momentum? Is a close second or even third good enough for Mitt?

    Discuss.
  2. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    04 Jan '12 02:24 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Might as well get the ball rolling: as of now with 13% of the vote in, Paul has a slim lead with Romney and Santorum neck and neck (each is around 23. Gingrich has about 13% and Perry 10% with Bachmann trailing the field at 6%. My source is: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia

    If the results hold like this, what is the ef ...[text shortened]... uild any momentum? Is a close second or even third good enough for Mitt?

    Discuss.
    It's too early to tell who will win except that it's a big night for Santorum. For the first time, people are going to be taking him seriously. I will be very interested to see how he reacts.

    Bachmann needs to drop out. She won the straw poll last year and now will finish 6th. Perry won't drop out (he'll hope for a big showing in SC).

    Of course Gingrich is another big loser tonight.
  3. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 02:31 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by sh76
    It's too early to tell who will win except that it's a big night for Santorum. For the first time, people are going to be taking him seriously. I will be very interested to see how he reacts.

    Bachmann needs to drop out. She won the straw poll last year and now will finish 6th. Perry won't drop out (he'll hope for a big showing in SC).

    Of course Gingrich is another big loser tonight.
    With 22% in, the top 3 are separated by 57 votes!

    I read a few articles that stated that contrary to what you and I think, Perry would be most likely to drop out if he didn't have a "good" showing (generally defined as finishing ahead of Newt). The rationale seemed to be that he already has a cushy job in Texas and no need to batter his head against a wall in a quixotic quest.

    EDIT: Here's an article rating Perry's chances of dropping as "high" if he finishes fifth. http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/01/let-post-iowa-drop-out-sweepstakes-begin/46912/
  4. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    04 Jan '12 02:56
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    With 22% in, the top 3 are separated by 57 votes!

    I read a few articles that stated that contrary to what you and I think, Perry would be most likely to drop out if he didn't have a "good" showing (generally defined as finishing ahead of Newt). The rationale seemed to be that he already has a cushy job in Texas and no need to batter his ...[text shortened]... /www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/01/let-post-iowa-drop-out-sweepstakes-begin/46912/
    Wow. For a guy who was the front runner just a few short months ago, it's amazing he'd drop out before the first vote in Dixie is cast.
  5. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 03:10
    Close to half the votes in now and Santorum has pulled slightly ahead of Romney with Paul falling back. It seems highly unlikely Perry can catch Gingrich for 4th.

    I'd say it's a good night for Mitt.
  6. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 03:14
    It's really interesting that evangelical Christians (who represent 57% of the caucus voters according to entrance polls) are going big for a Roman Catholic like Santorum.
  7. 04 Jan '12 03:14
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Close to half the votes in now and Santorum has pulled slightly ahead of Romney with Paul falling back. It seems highly unlikely Perry can catch Gingrich for 4th.

    I'd say it's a good night for Mitt.
    I just saw Perry interviewed by Meghan Kelly moments ago and he says he has no intention of dropping out of the race
  8. 04 Jan '12 03:15
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    It's really interesting that evangelical Christians (who represent 57% of the caucus voters according to entrance polls) are going big for a Roman Catholic like Santorum.
    apparently religion is not the issue for them.
  9. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 03:17 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    apparently religion is not the issue for them.
    I wonder if they are even aware of that fact. Romney's Mormonism has been reported about a thousand times more prominently than Santorum's Catholicism. Romney got only 14% of white evangelical votes compared to 38% of all others according to Fox entrance polls. Of course, Mitt's prior pro-choice position might be a significant factor.
  10. 04 Jan '12 03:21
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I wonder if they are even aware of that fact. Romney's Mormonism has been reported about a thousand times more prominently than Santorum's Catholicism.
    mormonism and catholicism is still christianity .
  11. 04 Jan '12 03:22
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I wonder if they are even aware of that fact. Romney's Mormonism has been reported about a thousand times more prominently than Santorum's Catholicism. Romney got only 14% of white evangelical votes compared to 38% of all others according to Fox entrance polls. Of course, Mitt's prior pro-choice position might be a significant factor.
    It could be. I am a little weary of his flip flopping myself.
  12. 04 Jan '12 03:24
    Santorum and mitt dead even now at 24% each with 48% reporting
  13. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Jan '12 03:28
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    mormonism and catholicism is still christianity .
    You should visit Spirituality. A lot of the born agains over there vehemently disagree.

    It's a positive development if people, even very religious people, are looking past candidate's religions, however. Maybe we can get that Muslim President in 2016 or 2020.
  14. Donation rwingett
    Ming the Merciless
    04 Jan '12 04:10
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    You should visit Spirituality. A lot of the born agains over there vehemently disagree.

    It's a positive development if people, even very religious people, are looking past candidate's religions, however. Maybe we can get that Muslim President in 2016 or 2020.
    Keith Ellison.
  15. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    04 Jan '12 04:27 / 2 edits
    sh76 network is now ready to call the race for Santorum.

    At 92% in, Romney has a slight lead, but I'm looking at the map and most of the areas that have not reported are strong Santorum areas.

    Santorum could win by a few hundred votes.

    Edit:

    Maybe that was too hasty. I didn't weight the counties correctly in my previous analysis. This is too complex to do on the fly. I just noticed that Dubuque County still has 26% to report and is a big Romney county and that it is a relatively large county. I still think Santorum has an edge, but maybe still too close to call.