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  1. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 01:561 edit
    Exit polls have been released. They predict Clinton and Trump will both win by about 6% and that Rubio may edge out Cruz for 2nd on the GOP side. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/IA

    EDIT: Sorry, I meant entrance polls.
  2. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 02:12
    CNN entrance polls have it a tossup between Trump and Cruz with Rubio close behind.http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep
  3. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 02:25
    Half the Democratic precincts reporting; Hillary leads by less than 3%

    Quarter of the GOP precincts reporting: Cruz 30% Trump 27% Rubio 19% Carson 10%
  4. Standard memberDeepThought
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    02 Feb '16 02:30
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Exit polls have been released. They predict Clinton and Trump will both win by about 6% and that Rubio may edge out Cruz for 2nd on the GOP side. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/IA

    EDIT: Sorry, I meant entrance polls.
    According to your link you had it right first time. The page said exit polls. I can't help noticing the Republicans have a lot more candidates than the Democrats, is that normal?
  5. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 02:32
    Originally posted by DeepThought
    According to your link you had it right first time. The page said exit polls. I can't help noticing the Republicans have a lot more candidates than the Democrats, is that normal?
    Not really. But Hillary was seen as just about inevitable.
  6. Standard membersh76
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    02 Feb '16 02:34
    This is fascinating stuff.

    I'm looking at the maps and though I'm no expert on modeling, I don't see Trump catching Cruz. I also think Rubio has a chance to go over 20%.

    If Trump does underperform, as it looks like he might, that would be the best news of the night.
  7. Standard memberSoothfast
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    02 Feb '16 02:38
    Originally posted by DeepThought
    According to your link you had it right first time. The page said exit polls. I can't help noticing the Republicans have a lot more candidates than the Democrats...
    Heh heh. You're only just now noticing this?

    You mean the world does not revolve around the clown circus that is American politics?
  8. Standard memberSoothfast
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    02 Feb '16 02:40
    Originally posted by sh76
    This is fascinating stuff.

    I'm looking at the maps and though I'm no expert on modeling, I don't see Trump catching Cruz. I also think Rubio has a chance to go over 20%.

    If Trump does underperform, as it looks like he might, that would be the best news of the night.
    Eh. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008, and Sanitarium won it in 2012. Notice a pattern? Evangelical nutters tend to win Iowa on the GOP side, then proceed to fizzle out after that. Trump's only viable potential competition is Rubio.
  9. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 02:41
    It certainly starting to appear that Trump will lose to Cruz; perhaps ducking the debate wasn't such a great idea after all.
  10. Standard membersh76
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    02 Feb '16 02:441 edit
    Linn County, home to Cedar Rapids, which should be strong for rubio, has barely started reporting.

    I don't think it will happen, but there might be an outside chance that Rubio could catch Trump.

    That would be huge.
  11. Standard membersh76
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    02 Feb '16 02:46
    Rubio's 20.4% showing in Polk county (Des Moines) so far is disappointing. If Polk starts breaking towards Rubio, that could help close the gap with Trump.
  12. Standard membersh76
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    02 Feb '16 02:47
    Clinton is doing better in Des Moines than Sanders is in Cedar Rapids.

    On that rock, the Dem caucus will be decided.
  13. Zugzwang
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    02 Feb '16 03:071 edit
    Originally posted by Soothfast to DeepThought
    Heh heh. You're only just now noticing this?
    You mean the world does not revolve around the clown circus that is American politics?
    I suspect that many non-Americans begin to tune into US presidential politics when
    the Democratic and Republican Party's nominees are finally selected. I expect that few
    non-Americans are obsessed about the results of the earliest primaries and caucuses.
  14. Standard memberSoothfast
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    02 Feb '16 03:09
    Bernie is only 1.3 points behind Hillary with 78% of precincts reporting. Nice.
  15. Subscriberno1marauder
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    02 Feb '16 03:15
    Reports are that O'Malley will drop out.

    Also Carson will fly home rather than head to New Hampshire. Assuming he drops, do others agree that is good for Cruz?
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