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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Standard member wittywonka
    Chocolate Expert
    09 Sep '12 08:38 / 1 edit
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/sept-8-conventions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/#more-34262

    It looks like the post-convention trend is in the Democrats' favor. According to Silver's blog (on his 11/6 forecast, as of 3:36 a.m. U.S. Central time), if you give Romney every state in which he has at least a 25% chance of winning, he still loses to Obama 268-270.

    Of course, even Silver's predictions are a collection of snapshots in time--and the debates no doubt will play a major role. But I think this is bad news for the GOP going into the final stretch.
  2. 09 Sep '12 18:29
    I think that if you look at history the Dems will quite often come out of the conventions ahead of the Republicans. In 1980 Carter had a 4 point lead over Reagan and in 1988 Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Bush.
  3. 09 Sep '12 23:11
    Originally posted by Eladar
    I think that if you look at history the Dems will quite often come out of the conventions ahead of the Republicans. In 1980 Carter had a 4 point lead over Reagan and in 1988 Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Bush.
    This is a different time, and Obama has held the electoral college lead for months now. There are 8 to 10 "battleground states" and Romney has to win like 7 or 8 of them.

    Dukakis blew it by not responding well to the Horton ad, and by a soulless debate performance. Voters are more sophisticated now, and Obama's team is seasoned and brilliant. It's really Obama's to lose right now.
  4. Donation rwingett
    Ming the Merciless
    10 Sep '12 02:09
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    This is a different time, and Obama has held the electoral college lead for months now. There are 8 to 10 "battleground states" and Romney has to win like 7 or 8 of them.

    Dukakis blew it by not responding well to the Horton ad, and by a soulless debate performance. Voters are more sophisticated now, and Obama's team is seasoned and brilliant. It's really Obama's to lose right now.
    Voters are more sophisticated now? Really? I don't know what planet you're living on.
  5. 10 Sep '12 02:46
    Originally posted by rwingett
    Voters are more sophisticated now? Really? I don't know what planet you're living on.
    That would be planet Kunsoo.

    Anyway, the GOP must know that they have a weak candidate when the jobs go south but Obama's support gains at the same time.

    The GOP is the only organization on earth that could screw this up.
  6. 10 Sep '12 02:51 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    . Voters are more sophisticated now, and Obama's team is seasoned and brilliant. It's really Obama's to lose right now.
    Try going to Youtube and typing in Howard Stern and black voters.

    Basically it shows how voters vote. He went to a black part of the city where he knew support for Obama could be high. However, he goofed on them by taking McCains positions and switching them to Obama and vice versa. So he would walk up to somebody and ask them if the supported President Obama's position to ban abortions and to keep Gitmo open. 100% said that they supported President Obama's positions and would vote for him. He later went to white section of town that was a GOP stronghold and did the exact same thing with the same results.

    Lemmings.

    Yep, it's not hard to see how "W" got elected for two terms and it is not hard to see how his twin will do the same.
  7. Standard member wittywonka
    Chocolate Expert
    10 Sep '12 12:26
    FiveThirtyEight now shows Romney's odds at below 1:4.
  8. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    10 Sep '12 13:09
    Originally posted by wittywonka
    FiveThirtyEight now shows Romney's odds at below 1:4.
    The only thing that can save Romney now is some major revelation or scandal or an economic collapse. Obama is too polished to choke in the debates.
  9. 10 Sep '12 13:26
    Originally posted by sh76
    The only thing that can save Romney now is some major revelation or scandal or an economic collapse. Obama is too polished to choke in the debates.
    And that is the problem. People should pay attention to his policies, not his polished image. But that would require a brain cell or two.
  10. Subscriber FMF
    a.k.a. John W Booth
    10 Sep '12 13:42
    Originally posted by whodey
    And that is the problem. People should pay attention to his policies, not his polished image. But that would require a brain cell or two.
    You use your "brain cell or two" to regularly inform us that President Obama's policies are Marxist.
  11. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    10 Sep '12 15:51
    Originally posted by sh76
    The only thing that can save Romney now is some major revelation or scandal or an economic collapse. Obama is too polished to choke in the debates.
    What IYO so dramatically shifted the odds? Obviously the Dem Convention, but why?
  12. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    10 Sep '12 15:57
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    What IYO so dramatically shifted the odds? Obviously the Dem Convention, but why?
    Because Clinton spoke very well and Obama was good enough. Though Romney's speech was good IMO, it was not that well received and the GOP convention in general did not appeal to moderates. The Eastwood fiasco also probably hurt. There was more energy at the Dem convention and Michele also contributed. I still intend to vote for Romney, but the Dems had a better convention.
  13. 10 Sep '12 16:36
    Originally posted by sh76
    The only thing that can save Romney now is some major revelation or scandal or an economic collapse. Obama is too polished to choke in the debates.
    Oh, I wouldn't go that far. Convention bounces can be fleeting as people have mentioned. But Obama does appear to have convinced many voters that the jobs problems are the fault of Republican obstructionism, and/or that they would make things worse if the were in power of the Presidency. One thing Obama did was to lay out more details of an economic plan, and basically dared Romney to come up with a plan that involves more than tax cuts and deregulation. Memories may be short in America, but most people remember that it was deregulation of the finance industry that made the 08 collapse possible.

    Romney has to come out with more details of an economic plan, and risk pissing off his base hoping that they will vote for him on cultural issues.
  14. 10 Sep '12 16:39
    I'm curious how Romney will perform in the debates. I'm not particularly impressed by Obama's performance in terms of policy, but he seems like a solid debater and orator.
  15. 10 Sep '12 16:41
    Originally posted by sh76
    Because Clinton spoke very well and Obama was good enough. Though Romney's speech was good IMO, it was not that well received and the GOP convention in general did not appeal to moderates. The Eastwood fiasco also probably hurt. There was more energy at the Dem convention and Michele also contributed. I still intend to vote for Romney, but the Dems had a better convention.
    Obama's decision to give a low key speech was probably deliberate in anticipation of the jobs report, and that may have been a good move.