Originally posted by Kunsoo
It's only a day's data, which could be statistical noise, but every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras. Even Gallup is falling into line with the mean.
Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning at just under 70 percent. He say ...[text shortened]... n it around for Romney at this point - short of Obama being caught in bed with a 14 year old?
I think, all in all, Obama is in fair shape.
A bulk of the "bounce" Romney got soon after the first debate (and persists to this day) has more to do with the polls switching from reporting results for "registered voters" to "likely voters". And that is scarcely mentioned in the media, oddly. This is why races often tighten at the beginning of October. And determining which respondents to a poll are "likely" to vote is a damned tricky thing. In 2010 polls, as an aggregate, underestimated Democratic turnout (and/or overestimated Republican turnout) by at least a couple points. The same could happen in 2012, I believe.
Meanwhile, voting is and has been going on in Ohio and many other battleground states for many weeks now. Weeks during which Obama has been leading in the polls. And indeed, polls of those who have already voted in these states are largely showing big advantages for Obama by double-digit margins. The fact is the Democrats, and the Obama campaign, have seasoned and well-oiled get-out-the-vote machines in operation that have proven quite adept at navigating around the voter-suppression/voter-intimidation tactics of Rethuglicans. This is good for democracy, though quite a few "conservatives" certainly hate and fear it.
There has been much talk in cyberspace about the Gallup poll that recently had Romney ahead by 7% nationally. This may have been pointed out here already, but there's a funny thing about that poll. This was the breakdown by region:
East: Obama +4
West: Obama +6
Midwest: Obama +4
South: Obama -22
So Romney came out ahead by 7 points on account of Obama being, apparently, vastly disfavored in the South. But Obama does not need a single southern state to win. Not even Florida. Of course, now Gallup only gives Romney a 3 point lead.
Finally, I think it is inevitable that Obama will get a little bounce from the 3rd debate, but it will take a full week, at least, before it enters into the moving averages of many of the major polls.