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  1. 24 Oct '12 19:29
    It's only a day's data, which could be statistical noise, but every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras. Even Gallup is falling into line with the mean.

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

    Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning at just under 70 percent. He says that even a bounce of one percent will up his percentage to 80 percent. If Obama did get a bounce, and remains ahead in Ohio and Virginia, as the latest polls indicate, is there anything that can turn it around for Romney at this point - short of Obama being caught in bed with a 14 year old?
  2. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    24 Oct '12 19:33
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    ... is there anything that can turn it around for Romney at this point...
    How about Nate Silver just being wrong?

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan
  3. 24 Oct '12 19:34
    Kos noticed it too, and adds even more data.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149494/-Hints-of-a-post-third-debate-Obama-bump
  4. 24 Oct '12 19:34
    Originally posted by Sleepyguy
    How about Nate Silver just being wrong?

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan
    Well, that could happen. Doesn't happen often though.
  5. 24 Oct '12 19:44
    If Obama did get caught in bed with a 14-year old, it would be what God intended.
  6. Standard member vivify
    rain
    24 Oct '12 20:00 / 1 edit
    I was hoping this thread was about a new dance craze.
  7. 24 Oct '12 20:26
    Originally posted by vivify
    I was hoping this thread was about a new dance craze.
    It may be in two weeks.
  8. 24 Oct '12 20:37 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    It's only a day's data, which could be statistical noise, but every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras. Even Gallup is falling into line with the mean.

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

    Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning at just under 70 percent. He say ...[text shortened]... n it around for Romney at this point - short of Obama being caught in bed with a 14 year old?
    I'm following

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

    which is estimating electoral college votes. They don't show the O'bounce yet. Obama 253, Romney 191 as of now and for about a day and actually down from previous 271.

    I see that some of the smaller states' estimates are not from polls, but why is there so much focus on the pop national vote and not on the electoral score?

    Edit: Click on a state, say, Florida, to see where they get their data.
  9. 24 Oct '12 21:08
    Originally posted by Sleepyguy
    How about Nate Silver just being wrong?

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan
    That actually looks like a very weak article to me. It tries to show that the 538 model has a bias in favour for Obama, but it just doesn't supply any convincing arguments supporting it's position. It seems to focus on a small handful of polls, of which the author thinks they get more or less weight than they ought to. What the author fails to show is that even if Silver's model is wrong in weighting polls with these kinds of results, this mistake biases his forecast in favour of Obama. As far as I can tell, the weighting is based on a model which does not distinguish between D and R, so it's very likely that both sides have had polls that are positive for them overweighted. The "if Silver's model is wrong in weighting polls" is also a very big if. There is no argument given for this position except for "I think this is wrong".
  10. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    24 Oct '12 21:12
    Silver's model is probably not perfect, but I sincerely doubt his model is biased based on his own personal beliefs.
  11. 24 Oct '12 22:27 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by sh76
    Silver's model is probably not perfect, but I sincerely doubt his model is biased based on his own personal beliefs.
    I actually don't get his incorporation of economic data into a regression analysis with polling data, but apparently it worked well in 08 and 10. And I doubt he liked the 10 results, but he predicted them fairly accurately anyway. For the Senate he predicted a 7 seat Republican pickup, but it was only six. He came in at 55 house seats however, and the final number was 63. He accurately predicted all but one of the Governors races, but almost all of them were gimmees. And the one he missed was Illinois, which was extremely close.
  12. Standard member sasquatch672
    Don't Like It Leave
    24 Oct '12 23:20 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    It's only a day's data, which could be statistical noise, but every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras. Even Gallup is falling into line with the mean.

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

    Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning at just under 70 percent. He say ...[text shortened]... n it around for Romney at this point - short of Obama being caught in bed with a 14 year old?
    The University of Colorado projects the likelihood of a Romney popular vote win at 77%. They're not the Daily Kos, and they're 6 for 6 since the model started.
  13. 25 Oct '12 00:09
    Originally posted by sasquatch672
    The University of Colorado projects the likelihood of a Romney popular vote win at 77%. They're not the Daily Kos, and they're 6 for 6 since the model started.
    Well then. That's that.
  14. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    25 Oct '12 06:16 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    It's only a day's data, which could be statistical noise, but every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras. Even Gallup is falling into line with the mean.

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

    Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning at just under 70 percent. He say ...[text shortened]... n it around for Romney at this point - short of Obama being caught in bed with a 14 year old?
    I think, all in all, Obama is in fair shape.

    A bulk of the "bounce" Romney got soon after the first debate (and persists to this day) has more to do with the polls switching from reporting results for "registered voters" to "likely voters". And that is scarcely mentioned in the media, oddly. This is why races often tighten at the beginning of October. And determining which respondents to a poll are "likely" to vote is a damned tricky thing. In 2010 polls, as an aggregate, underestimated Democratic turnout (and/or overestimated Republican turnout) by at least a couple points. The same could happen in 2012, I believe.

    Meanwhile, voting is and has been going on in Ohio and many other battleground states for many weeks now. Weeks during which Obama has been leading in the polls. And indeed, polls of those who have already voted in these states are largely showing big advantages for Obama by double-digit margins. The fact is the Democrats, and the Obama campaign, have seasoned and well-oiled get-out-the-vote machines in operation that have proven quite adept at navigating around the voter-suppression/voter-intimidation tactics of Rethuglicans. This is good for democracy, though quite a few "conservatives" certainly hate and fear it.

    There has been much talk in cyberspace about the Gallup poll that recently had Romney ahead by 7% nationally. This may have been pointed out here already, but there's a funny thing about that poll. This was the breakdown by region:

    East: Obama +4
    West: Obama +6
    Midwest: Obama +4
    South: Obama -22

    So Romney came out ahead by 7 points on account of Obama being, apparently, vastly disfavored in the South. But Obama does not need a single southern state to win. Not even Florida. Of course, now Gallup only gives Romney a 3 point lead.

    Finally, I think it is inevitable that Obama will get a little bounce from the 3rd debate, but it will take a full week, at least, before it enters into the moving averages of many of the major polls.
  15. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    25 Oct '12 06:33
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    every tracking poll has movement for Obama with the exception of the Republican leaning House of Ras.
    If you're referring to the Rasmussen poll, it is, in my opinion, a polling firm that is biased toward Republicans to a degree that can only be attributed to sheer mendacity, and not mere incompetence. According to Rasmussen, Romney has been winning the race for most of the year, even when every other poll in the universe had Obama ahead by at least 6 points. As you may know Rasmussen only ever reports results for respondents they deem to be "likely" voters, which certainly gives them almost limitless license to cherry-pick the data.