05 Feb '17 13:12>1 edit
Originally posted by finneganI'm not hopeful at all, it's just that it's becoming clear that the damage will take subtle rather than the leaden forms initially predicted, in the form of tariff wars, and I have no faith whatsoever that Leave voters will change their minds even in the event of such a crash or tariff war emerging - people hate to admit they're wrong (just look at retrospective polling on the Iraq War, which had roughly 65% support in polls at the time despite the fact that polling now indicates that a huge of the electorate "remember" that it opposed it at the time). The Referendum itself was a rejection of material self-interest anyway, although there is polling that shows that Leave voters actually believed that they could exit the world's greatest trading bloc and either maintain or increase their standard of living. That seems incredible, but it isn't quite so incredible outside of London, where misallocation of resources left people unimpressed by the EU, and high migration levels without obvious compensation alienated them, largely because Cameron and May were busy stigmatizing migrants while simultaneously imposing austerity on Labour councils. In hindsight it's more extraordinary that Remain achieved 48% of the vote, given that we've had nearly 40 years of anti-EC, EEC and EU propaganda from the yellow press and frontline politicians like William Hague, David Cameron and Michael Howard.
Migration may be reversed in the face of economic decline and also devaluation, both of which appear certain to continue. After all, migrants are searching for better opportunities. On the other hand, migrants play such a key role in many industries, not only as low paid labour, but also in highly skilled work and in education, that the impact of England's ...[text shortened]... here.
Multinationals can just walk away at a whim. Each time they do, whole towns can die.
On regulation, I wasn't attacking the EU, on the contrary - EU regulations and harmonization were of course profoundly beneficial to the UK, which will now face massive (and increasingly massive as time passes) problems exporting to a gigantic marketplace with regulations and a commercial judicial system not only separate but divergent from our own, and therefore subject to petty (or in some cases justified) challenges from continental competitors. This, along with the disappearance of inward investment and most likely productivity and competition is the most significant economic effect of Brexit, rather than tariffs, which are unlikely to rise significantly (at least, unless Trump triggers a catastrophic trade war, which is always possible). And of course politically we're now more servile than ever, since "taking back control" was based on exiting a powerful bloc which could and did stand up to the same nations to whom we're now beholden.
Even so, Corbyn was right. Burnham was right, and Starmer is right, the politics of Remain are dead now, and Tim Farron is deluding himself: there's no going back. Best we can hope for is membership of the single market a decade or two down the line, and it'll be hard enough selling that to a Likudified electorate.