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Debates Forum

  1. Subscribersonhouse
    Fast and Curious
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    08 Aug '18 07:16
    As of midnight the vote is on the repub's side by less than 2000 votes the election now won't be decided for at least 10 days and maybe longer and even if O'Conner loses he will have round two in November because this election is not for 6 years, ONLY till November when another vote will take place to decide who will hang around there for the next 6.
    Thing is, in THAT election, that district will not get the millions pumped into it by republicans and the democrats will be on even ground financially so it will be toe to toe without big republican money to sully it.
    And the whole thing is the result of gerrymandering in the first place, adding all those other counties was a Republican tactic to keep that district in repub hands but the latest result shows it is almost neck and neck, when it was supposed to be more like 70/30 in favor of repubs but now only 1% separates the two and 3000 or more absentee and other kinds of votes have yet to be counted so it could (probably will be a repub win by maybe 500 votes when all is counted and recounted) To get to a recount Democrats have to come within 0.5 % of the republican vote and as of right now they are maybe 0.9% away so they have to gain another four tenths to get into the state mandated recount procedure but repubs will probably still eek out a very very narrow victory but it will still not be over because this election is only good till November when a new vote will come in for the same race with the same dudes contesting it.

    Either way, a win for Democrats who did FAR better than they were projected to do by the pundits, coming within one percent when they were supposed to have lost by 30%, so Republicans have a lot to worry about nation wide when democrats come this close in a state where they have not won since 1980......
  2. Behind the scenes
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    08 Aug '18 08:31
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    As of midnight the vote is on the repub's side by less than 2000 votes the election now won't be decided for at least 10 days and maybe longer and even if O'Conner loses he will have round two in November because this election is not for 6 years, ONLY till November when another vote will take place to decide who will hang around there for the next 6.
    Thin ...[text shortened]... t nation wide when democrats come this close in a state where they have not won since 1980......
    For a group that loves to brandish their Christian credentials the GOP engages in some pretty un Christian practices. Gerrymandering of political districts, taking children away from their mothers at the border, trashing our environment (the one God created) all in the name of profits, worshiping a President that fathered 5 children by 3 different women, and uses more filthy language than any other, not to mention all those conservative closet gay and lesbian lawmakers. Now our beloved President wants to shut down our government if he doesn't get funding for his wall (wasn't Mexico supposed to pay for that??) Oh well, as you said, the Democrats did pretty well in Ohio despite the gerrymandering. I think it's silly that they have to repeat this exercise in a couple of months though.
  3. Joined
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    08 Aug '18 12:23
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    As of midnight the vote is on the repub's side by less than 2000 votes the election now won't be decided for at least 10 days and maybe longer and even if O'Conner loses he will have round two in November because this election is not for 6 years, ONLY till November when another vote will take place to decide who will hang around there for the next 6.
    Thin ...[text shortened]... t nation wide when democrats come this close in a state where they have not won since 1980......
    so now you are celebrating "coming close" ? LMFAO
  4. Subscriberno1marauder
    Humble and Kind
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    08 Aug '18 21:07
    Originally posted by @mott-the-hoople
    so now you are celebrating "coming close" ? LMFAO
    If you can still think, think about this:

    This should have been a Republican cakewalk. The district hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in more than three decades. The Republican incumbent, whose retirement is why the special election was necessary, won in 2016 by more than 35 points. In that same year’s presidential election, Trump won the district by 11.

    And he and Republicans pulled out all the stops to help Balderson. The president swept into town for a big rally on Saturday night. Vice President Mike Pence made his own trip. And Republican groups from outside the district pumped millions into the race, hugely outspending their Democratic counterparts.

    Even so, Balderson seemed to be barely squeezing out a victory. It’s a terrible sign for Republicans, a promising one for Democrats and a fascinating, revelatory turn of events on a night when the country’s mood in general — and voters’ attitudes about Trump in particular — came into slightly sharper focus.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/opinion/balderson-oconnor-ohio-election.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
  5. Zugzwang
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    08 Aug '18 21:191 edit
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    As of midnight the vote is on the repub's side by less than 2000 votes the election now won't be decided for at least 10 days and maybe longer and even if O'Conner loses he will have round two in November because this election is not for 6 years, ONLY till November when another vote will take place to decide who will hang around there for the next 6.
    Thin ...[text shortened]... t nation wide when democrats come this close in a state where they have not won since 1980......
    "Either way, a win for Democrats who did FAR better than they were projected to do by the pundits..."
    --Sonhouse

    How much do 'moral victories' count? Did Hillary Clinton celebrate *almost* defeating Donald Trump?
    The bottom line is if there's another Republican in Congress, it does not matter how one got there.

    At the Battle of the Alamo, the Texians won a 'moral victory' but still ended up dead.
  6. Subscriberno1marauder
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    08 Aug '18 21:281 edit
    Originally posted by @duchess64
    "Either way, a win for Democrats who did FAR better than they were projected to do by the pundits..."
    --Sonhouse

    How much do 'moral victories' count? Did Hillary Clinton celebrate *almost* defeating Donald Trump?
    The bottom line is if there's another Republican in Congress, it does not matter how one got there.

    At the Battle of the Alamo, the Texians won a 'moral victory' but still ended up dead.
    The point is there are many districts in play that were far more competitive in the past then Ohio 12th was. If the Republicans can barely eke out a win there, even with a massive spending edge and visits by Trump and Pence, then they are in big trouble in literally dozens of other districts:

    It was a measure of the difficult environment confronting Republicans that Democrats effectively competed for this district at all. Since the seat was reconfigured in 2010 to make it more safely Republican, former Representative Pat Tiberi never carried less than 64 percent of the vote. Trump carried the district by 11 percentage points four years after Mitt Romney won it by 10. Moreover, the seat is preponderantly white (86 percent) and contains substantial numbers of the small-town and rural voters who have flocked to Trump.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    By the count of David Wasserman, the House race analyst for The Cook Political Report, there are 68 House Republican districts whose voting history leans less reliably toward the GOP than Ohio-12. “We won a district where we can nominate a bag of cement … and we won by [about] 1,000 votes,” says the longtime GOP strategist Mike Murphy, a Trump critic. “That means … they are playing 50 seats deep in our infield and almost winning. What does that tell you about our midterms?”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trump-oconnor-balderson-ohio-special-election/567050/
  7. Zugzwang
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    08 Aug '18 21:39
    Originally posted by @no1marauder
    The point is there are many districts in play that were far more competitive in the past then Ohio 12th was. If the Republicans can barely eke out a win there, even with a massive spending edge and visits by Trump and Pence, then they are in big trouble in literally dozens of other districts:

    It was a measure of the difficult environment confronting ...[text shortened]... w.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trump-oconnor-balderson-ohio-special-election/567050/
    "If the Republicans can barely eke out a win there, even with a massive spending edge and
    visits by Trump and Pence, then they are in big trouble in literally dozens of other districts."
    --No1Marauder

    I prefer to wait until the Republicans are defeated in these districts before I would celebrate.
    Did not some of Hillary Clinton's supporters begin celebrating her victory over Donald Trump?
  8. Joined
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    08 Aug '18 21:40
    Originally posted by @no1marauder
    If you can still think, think about this:

    This should have been a Republican cakewalk. [b]The district hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in more than three decades. The Republican incumbent, whose retirement is why the special election was necessary, won in 2016 by more than 35 points. In that same year’s presidential election, Trump won the dist ...[text shortened]... e=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
    I 'think" I will celebrate my win while you celebrate your loss... 😉
  9. Standard membershavixmir
    Guppy poo
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    08 Aug '18 21:43
    Originally posted by @mott-the-hoople
    I 'think" I will celebrate my win while you celebrate your loss... 😉
    Moron.
  10. Subscriberno1marauder
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    08 Aug '18 21:45
    Originally posted by @duchess64
    "If the Republicans can barely eke out a win there, even with a massive spending edge and
    visits by Trump and Pence, then they are in big trouble in literally dozens of other districts."
    --No1Marauder

    I prefer to wait until the Republicans are defeated in these districts before I would celebrate.
    Did not some of Hillary Clinton's supporters begin celebrating her victory over Donald Trump?
    I'll mention your skepticism to Conor Lamb. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone

    And Doug Jones.https://www.politico.com/interactives/elections/2017/alabama/special-election/dec-12/
  11. Subscriberno1marauder
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    08 Aug '18 21:55
    From 538:

    While the loss will doubtlessly disappoint Democrats, it was still just a 1 percentage-point Republican win in a district with an R+14 partisan lean. That’s a Democratic overperformance of 13 points — not too far off the average Democratic overperformance (16 points) in federal special elections going into this week.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-mattered-most-in-ohio-kansas-and-tuesdays-other-elections/

    There were some good progressive results in Missouri; voters crushingly defeated an attempt to pass a "right to work" anti-union provision and defeated the "prosecutor" in the Michael Brown case (who didn't want to prosecute) replacing him with Wesley Bell, "who pledged to install a special independent prosecutor to investigate incidents of alleged police misconduct, not push for the death penalty against defendants and eliminate cash bail."
  12. Zugzwang
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    08 Aug '18 22:001 edit
    Originally posted by @no1marauder
    I'll mention your skepticism to Conor Lamb. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone

    And Doug Jones.https://www.politico.com/interactives/elections/2017/alabama/special-election/dec-12/
    As usual, No1Marauder seems eager to stuff 'strawmen' into my mouth.
    I wrote nothing about predicting that Democrats cannot defeat Republicans in political contests.
    And I wrote nothing, of course, about claiming that Democrats never have defeated Republicans.

    No1Marauder may already have eagerly begun celebrating, for instance, the many gold
    medals supposedly won by African American students at International Mathematical
    Olympiads, but more objective observers may prefer to wait at least until any African
    American ever qualifies for a US team at any IMO.
  13. Subscriberno1marauder
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    08 Aug '18 22:44
    Originally posted by @duchess64
    As usual, No1Marauder seems eager to stuff 'strawmen' into my mouth.
    I wrote nothing about predicting that Democrats cannot defeat Republicans in political contests.
    And I wrote nothing, of course, about claiming that Democrats never have defeated Republicans.

    No1Marauder may already have eagerly begun celebrating, for instance, the many gold
    medals ...[text shortened]... ay prefer to wait at least until any African
    American ever qualifies for a US team at any IMO.
    Yes, them Africans sure are dumb; guess they didn't leave that continent soon enough like the intellectually superior East Asians.
  14. Zugzwang
    Joined
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    08 Aug '18 23:072 edits
    nOriginally posted by @no1marauder
    Yes, them Africans sure are dumb; guess they didn't leave that continent soon enough like the intellectually superior East Asians.
    "No1Marauder may already have eagerly begun celebrating, for instance, the many gold
    medals supposedly won by African American students at International Mathematical
    Olympiads, but more objective observers may prefer to wait at least until any African
    American ever qualifies for a US team at any IMO."
    --Duchess64

    The racist No1Marauder again conflates 'African Americans' (which I wrote) with 'Africans'.
    Most African Americans evidently have some white European ancestry.
    (I would add that writers like Ash and Twhitehead are Africans, citizens of African countries.)

    In the USA, recent black immigrants from Africa or the Caribbean tend to perform better
    academically than African Americans (descended from slaves), perhaps on account of
    cultural differences (which some black immigrant writers have commented upon).

    IF, as No1Marauder dogmatically believes, the US academic system is fundamentally racist
    against everyone of black African ancestry (but never prejudiced at all against Asian Americans,
    whom the racist No1Marauder fantasizes can succeed only because they are all very
    wealthy, privileged, and unfair advantages over everyone else, including white people),
    then why do children of recent black immigrant families perform better academically than
    African Americans (descended from slaves), who have more allegedly 'superior' white genes?

    Is it plausible that racist American teachers give preferential treatment to recent black
    immigrants from Africa or the Caribbean over US-born African Americans?

    As usual, the racist No1Marauder condescendingly treats all African Americans as
    completely helpless and unable to do anything to affect their own educational outcomes,
    even though some African Americans have written that's far from their reality.

    Until about a generation ago, the US teams in the International Olympiads in mathematics
    and science were overwhelmingly white (and largely Jewish). Then the proportion of
    Asian Americans increased until they recently about completely dominate such teams.
    This demographic trend was not foreseen (even by Asian Americans) a generation ago.

    In 2018 (as in 2017), evidently all the students except one (who's white) selected to represent
    the USA in the International Olympiads in mathematics, physics, chemistry (boycotted by
    the USA because it was held in Iran), biology, and informatics were Asian Americans.
    Some of these students were of South Asian (Indian or Pakistani) heritage.
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