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  1. 02 Feb '16 01:10
    In 'Scientific American' (February 2016), there's an article about the projected
    population in Africa by 2100. Africa now has about 1.2 billion people.
    According to the UN, Africa's projected to have 3 - 6 billion people by 2100.
    An African woman has 4.7 children on average. What should be done?
    Robert Engelman (the author) has this answer: 'Empower women.'
    He points out that African men want to have more children than women do,
    given that the burdens of pregnancy, giving birth (which often is hazardous),
    and child care are assigned to women. Most modern women prefer
    not to be destined to become 'baby factories'.

    Nearly all of this planet's growth in population is projected to come in Africa.
    How will the rest of the world address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
  2. Standard member DeepThought
    Losing the Thread
    02 Feb '16 02:26
    Originally posted by Duchess64
    In 'Scientific American' (February 2016), there's an article about the projected
    population in Africa by 2100. Africa now has about 1.2 billion people.
    According to the UN, Africa's projected to have 3 - 6 billion people by 2100.
    An African woman has 4.7 children on average. What should be done?
    Robert Engelman (the author) has this answer: 'Empower ...[text shortened]... come in Africa.
    How will the rest of the world address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
    Engelman's solution sounds likely to be the only ethical one. Unless things change over the next century or so the rest of the world will ignore it until a migrant crisis appears as the consequence of an overpopulation crisis. I'm assuming that 6 billion in Africa is not sustainable with that statement.
  3. 02 Feb '16 07:08
    Originally posted by Duchess64
    He points out that African men want to have more children than women do,
    I wonder where he got that from. In my own experience I have known women who wanted more children than their husbands, and in my own marriage the pressure to have children or more children came almost entirely from women.
    It is true that in many cases the men do not participate very much in child rearing and that gives them the false impression that it is easy, so they have more. However, this largely applies to the poor where having more children is seen as financially beneficial. The moment people enter the middle class they discover that raising children is enormously expensive and they have a lot less children.
    Also related to poverty is not thinking ahead. I experienced a culture shock when moving to South Africa in that South Africans think much further ahead than Zambians largely because they are wealthier. Most Zambians are too busy worrying about where their next meal will come from to be concerned about what the school fees might be 10 years from now.

    Another major factor that has been noted globally is child survival rates. If children die at high rates people have more children to compensate and usually over compensate. If you improve child health and stop wars, then population growth rates tend to drop.

    I do think educating and empowering women does help significantly in reducing population growth but I am not convinced that it is for the reason Engleman gives.
  4. 02 Feb '16 07:09 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by DeepThought
    I'm assuming that 6 billion in Africa is not sustainable with that statement.
    6 Billion is potentially sustainable. One could argue that the current population of Africa is not currently sustainable given that most people are poor and most would migrate if given the chance.

    However, countries like Zambia would probably benefit from a larger population. One of the many causes of poverty in Zambia is low population density which is a very expensive way to live. Most people seriously under estimate the economic benefits of cities. If Zambia moved 99% of its population into one compact city its GDP would increase dramatically as would the wealth of the population. The problem is that easily available land encourages urban sprawl. In the short term it is cheaper to buy a farm house outside town than to live in the city centre. In the longer term that can be very expensive for both the person and the country.
    This is one area that Europe has an advantage over the USA. Europe has less land available so they have more compact cities. And Japan beats them both.
  5. 02 Feb '16 07:34
    Originally posted by Duchess64

    Nearly all of this planet's growth in population is projected to come in Africa.
    How will the rest of the world address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
    Africa is fairly sparsely populated and birth rates on the continent are falling rapidly. There is unlikely to be an "overpopulated Africa" any time soon (or late).
  6. 02 Feb '16 07:46
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    Africa is fairly sparsely populated and birth rates on the continent are falling rapidly. There is unlikely to be an "overpopulated Africa" any time soon (or late).
    It all depends on how you define overpopulation.
    Current projections do show Africa as having a dramatic increase in population and the six billion quoted in the thread title is a reasonable estimate.
    Birth rates are falling in some parts of Africa but not others. War, disease and poverty tend to keep birth rates high.
  7. 02 Feb '16 11:47
    it will be a disaster for the rest of the planet, they will cover the globe:
    http://www.amren.com/features/2016/01/an-african-planet-part-ii/
  8. 02 Feb '16 12:56
    Oh my goodness. 6 Billion farts per hour from Africa is likely to heat the planet. We should empower women at once!!!!
  9. 02 Feb '16 13:00
    Does anyone really think that with 6 billion people they will be staying in Africa?
    They will be swarming over the entire planet.
    Won't the world be a wonderful place then?
  10. Subscriber Ponderable
    chemist
    02 Feb '16 13:01
    Originally posted by joe beyser
    Oh my goodness. 6 Billion farts per hour from Africa is likely to heat the planet. We should empower women at once!!!!
    A word to the unweary:
    Sign sarcasm as such, people here are not very strong in recognising that Feature...
  11. 02 Feb '16 13:25
    Originally posted by FishHead111
    it will be a disaster for the rest of the planet, they will cover the globe
    Most of the rest of the globe will be experiencing a population crisis and will probably welcome them.
  12. 02 Feb '16 13:37 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by twhitehead
    Most of the rest of the globe will be experiencing a population crisis and will probably welcome them.
    Oh hell yeah when they are experiencing a crisis from over population I'm sure they'll welcome a few billion more Africans into their countries.
    You can't possibly be that thick witted.

    Edit: Wait....you aren't actually suggesting the western countries will be SHORT of people in 2100 and need more?
    Look at population growth charts for the last century and get back to us when you know what you're talking about.
  13. Standard member Quarl
    Quarl
    02 Feb '16 14:24
    Originally posted by Duchess64
    Nearly all of this planet's growth in population is projected to come in Africa.
    How will the rest of the world address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
    Should not your question be:
    How will Africa address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
  14. 02 Feb '16 14:30
    Originally posted by Quarl
    Should not your question be:
    [b]How will Africa address the problems of an overpopulated Africa?
    [/b]
    They'll wait for the West to save them, then complain about how racist they are.
    It's what they do.
  15. Standard member Quarl
    Quarl
    02 Feb '16 14:30
    Originally posted by Ponderable
    A word to the unweary:
    Sign sarcasm as such, people here are not very strong in recognising that Feature...
    "A word to the UNWARY"

    btw: This is sarcasm.