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  1. Subscriberkmax87
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    29 Jul '18 21:00
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Trump already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Trump will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn maxim, it's the economy stupid, has Trump produced a get out of Jail Free card, and will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
  2. Standard memberwolfgang59
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    29 Jul '18 21:08
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Trump already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Trump will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn maxi ...[text shortened]... will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
    GDP is a pretty poor indicator.
    For instance NZ GDP grew subsequent to the Christchurch Earthquakes.
    Did rebuilding a broken city make the economy better.
    see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

    You can extend this to growing GDP by getting people to build walls. ๐Ÿ˜€
  3. Standard memberDeepThought
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    29 Jul '18 21:25
    Originally posted by @wolfgang59
    GDP is a pretty poor indicator.
    For instance NZ GDP grew subsequent to the Christchurch Earthquakes.
    Did rebuilding a broken city make the economy better.
    see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

    You can extend this to growing GDP by getting people to build walls. ๐Ÿ˜€
    You may be right, but the question kmax87 asked was whether it would affect the mid-term elections. I don't know, but confirmation bias is a powerful thing.
  4. Subscriberno1marauder
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    29 Jul '18 23:39
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Trump already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Trump will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn maxi ...[text shortened]... will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
    The economy has looked strong all year, but Democrats are still out performing their recent results in special election districts by an average 15-20 points. There's little reason to think this trend won't continue:

    Republicans have reason to doubt the efficacy of an economic message in hotly contested midterm campaigns, which have historically been referendums on the sitting president. The last time the economy grew 4 percent in a quarter was in the middle of 2014, under President Barack Obama, just before Senate Democrats lost nine seats — and their majority — that fall.

    For their part, Democrats are weaponizing the tax law — which is mired in only middling popularity — against Republican opponents in some key races. Their critiques have been fed by government statistics showing that wages for typical American workers have not risen over the past year, after adjusting for inflation, even though Republicans promised the tax cuts would unleash rapid wage growth.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/us/politics/economy-politics-midterms.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
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    29 Jul '18 23:58
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Trump already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Trump will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn maxi ...[text shortened]... will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
    The next quarterly report comes out about one week before the mid term elections in November. If the number looks good, 3% let's say, the GOP will win seats.
  6. Subscriberno1marauder
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    30 Jul '18 02:26
    Originally posted by @phranny
    The next quarterly report comes out about one week before the mid term elections in November. If the number looks good, 3% let's say, the GOP will win seats.
    It's highly unlikely and would be virtually historically unprecedented for a President's party to gain seats in the House in a mid-term election:

    As stated in PolitiFact, since the Roosevelt era, the President’s Party has only gained seats in the House and Senate during the midterm elections twiceโ€Š—โ€Šin 1934 and 2002. Those gains were relatively meager, with Bush II gaining 8 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate in 2002, and FDR gaining 9 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate in 1934. Bush II’s 2002 mid-term election stands out as a particular anomaly, since the country was still emotionally recovering from 9/11, and the Republican Party was able to capitalize and brand the party as synonymous with patriotism. Clinton’s 1998 midterms also warrant a look, as Democrats gained 5 seats in the House while losing none in the Senate. But excluding the midterm election following 9/11, we’re looking at the President’s party gaining seats in both chambers only once since Roosevelt began the modern era of the Presidency. Midterm losses are far more common and tend to be massive, especially in the House. For instance, Roosevelt lost 71 seats in the House in the 1938 midterms, which is the biggest loss of House seats since. Roosevelt lost 55 House seats in 1942. Eisenhower lost 48 House seats in 1958. Lyndon B. Johnson lost 47 House seats in 1966. Bush II ended up losing 30 House seats in 2006, after escaping midterm losses directly after 9/11. Midterm losses aren’t just common, they are the rule. All Presidents since Roosevelt who have served two terms have had at least one midterm election where they lost seats in the House and Senate. Johnson essentially served Kennedy’s second term, and he lost seats in both the House and Senate in 1966. Ford did the same for Nixon, and he lost seats in the House and Senate in 1974. Carter and Bush I only served single terms, and they also both lost seats in the House and Senate in 1978 and 1990, respectively.

    https://medium.com/@marcushjohnson/why-does-the-presidents-party-lose-seats-in-the-midterm-elections-ee84760a69ae

    There's a nice chart underneath that paragraph laying out the results since 1934.

    I still think the odds are good for a "blue wave" election in the House. The Senate is a tough climb for the Dems; they have 25 Senate seats up compared to only 8 for the GOP, so gains are unlikely.
  7. Subscriberkmax87
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    30 Jul '18 04:50
    Originally posted by @no1marauder
    ....Bush II’s 2002 mid-term election stands out as a particular anomaly, since the country was still emotionally recovering from 9/11, and the Republican Party was able to capitalize and brand the party as synonymous with patriotism. Clinton’s 1998 midterms also warrant a look, as Democrats gained 5 seats in the House while losing none in the Senate.
    It seems since Obama, partisanship in America has moved up a notch. And whether he's deserved it or not Trump has inherited an èconomy nursed back to health and ready to boom. The economy only has to keep keeping on for another 4 months for Trump to 'prove' that old GOP trope of the Republicans being good with money and the Democrats
    by contrast wanting to tax and spend.

    Even though pay packets may not reflect the celebration the media is giving the economy at the moment, it nevertheless must sound good to hear that market indicators are the best they have been for
    the past 10 years.

    It seems unfortunate that the incoming President inherits a bonus or a liability in terms the economy he has to deal with and how it aligns with the business cycle when coming into office.

    The incumbent either blames his predecessor or takes all the credit. Given the loyal following among his base, the midterms may not deliver the Trump administration such a black eye. People may feel that while their wage packets show very little change, better the devil you know and not change the composition of the house in case that stifles legislation that would lead to greater economic and job growth.

    I think the greater likelihood will be the midterms turning out to be a wash.
  8. Subscriberno1marauder
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    30 Jul '18 05:002 edits
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    It seems since Obama, partisanship in America has moved up a notch. And whether he's deserved it or not Trump has inherited an èconomy nursed back to health and ready to boom. The economy only has to keep keeping on for another 4 months for Trump to 'prove' that old GOP trope of the Republicans being good with money and the Democrats
    by contrast wanting to ...[text shortened]... and job growth.

    I think the greater likelihood will be the midterms turning out to be a wash.
    Your "analysis" seems to ignore the almost disastrous special election results over the last year for the GOP (a Democratic Senator in Alabama!) and Trump's continued historically low net approval rating (you have to go back to Truman to find a President this unpopular at this point in his term). Last I checked, the percentage of Americans who think Trump should be impeached is about the same as those that approve of him.

    So no, a "wash" is extremely unlikely.

    EDIT: Including the margin swing in Texas’s 27th, the average swing toward Democrats in this cycle’s special elections is now “only” 16 points. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/saturdays-special-election-in-texas-could-be-a-good-sign-for-the-gop-or-not/
  9. Standard membershavixmir
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    30 Jul '18 05:08
    You’re a hell of a lot more optimistic than I.
  10. Standard memberDeepThought
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    30 Jul '18 06:07
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    It seems since Obama, partisanship in America has moved up a notch. And whether he's deserved it or not Trump has inherited an èconomy nursed back to health and ready to boom. The economy only has to keep keeping on for another 4 months for Trump to 'prove' that old GOP trope of the Republicans being good with money and the Democrats
    by contrast wanting to ...[text shortened]... and job growth.

    I think the greater likelihood will be the midterms turning out to be a wash.
    The difficulty for the GOP is that Trump's support base isn't going to be voting for the Donaldo but for "establishment" Republicans. So any perception that Trumps tax cutting has helped the economy won't necessarily translate into votes for Congressional candidates.
  11. Standard memberLundos
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    30 Jul '18 07:251 edit
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Trump already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Trump will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn maxi ...[text shortened]... will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
    Consumer spending is up and so is the public spending. One from reduced taxes (which is most likely a short term thing) and public spending was approved in the fiscal plan. Both parts increase debt so the bill will be paid later.
    Take a deeper look at the economy and you'll probably find quite a lot of economists concerned about an unstable and/or overheating economy. (I haven't checked).
  12. Subscriberkmax87
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    30 Jul '18 07:391 edit
    Originally posted by @lundos
    Consumer spending is up and so is the public spending. One from reduced taxes (which is most likely a short term thing) and public spending was approved in the fiscal plan. Both parts increase debt so the bill will be paid later.
    Take a deeper look at the economy and you'll probably find quite a lot of economists concerned about an unstable and/or overheating economy. (I haven't checked).
    The economy overheating was a point mentioned in the article I read this morning.
    But given the irrationality that overtakes people when they are in the booth, contrary to how they may poll etc, I think a lot of people will be taken with the idea that if it wasn't for Trump shaking up things and playing outside of the rules, maybe they wouldn't have the tax rates you currently have, and if and as he walks back his tariff war rhetoric, the economy will probably grow a lot more.

    I hope not. I hope he has to take a haircut, but traditional punditry and common sense have not counted for much lately.

    EDIT: I hope that people are not fooled when they face the onslaught of electioneering ads. I hope America's economy grows!
  13. Subscriberkmax87
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    30 Jul '18 07:48
    Originally posted by @no1marauder
    Your "analysis" seems to ignore the almost disastrous special election results over the last year for the GOP (a Democratic Senator in Alabama!) and Trump's continued historically low net approval rating (you have to go back to Truman to find a President this unpopular at this point in his term). Last I checked, the percentage of Americans who think Tru ...[text shortened]... yeight.com/features/saturdays-special-election-in-texas-could-be-a-good-sign-for-the-gop-or-not/
    I want to believe you, but you and sh76 and others were also this confident in the lead up to the general election....
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    30 Jul '18 08:25
    Originally posted by @kmax87
    The NYT reports a massive bounce to the economy that has Drumpf already taking a bow. While the economists and naysayers caution that the 4.1% GDP figure that Drumpf will sound to the heavens is most likely a one off due to tax cuts, if the trade war launches the longevity and strength of this economic recovery will be short lived.

    Given the well worn ma ...[text shortened]... will the 2018 half term elections be less of a Democratic landslide that everyone has predicted.
    the economy was "good" when obama left as well. the problem is the poor don't feel the economy is good. they don't care that wall street is making profits.
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    30 Jul '18 10:08
    I was waiting for someone to make a thread about this. This could mean that the U.S achieves an annualized growth rate of 3%+ this year, although it's still speculation as to whether the second quarter's rate can be sustained. 3%+ for a country already as rich as America is would be... stellar, to say the least.
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