Please turn on javascript in your browser to play chess.
Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. 17 Aug '11 16:36
    ABO is not running.

    The latest polls have Obama beating each of leading Republican candidates.

    Obama 45, Perry 41 Obama +4
    Obama 45, Romney 43 Obama +2
    Obama 48, Bachmann 41 Obama +7

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    If you vote in the Republcian primary, who will you vote for? And please, can we hear from more than the loyal Paul suppporter.
  2. 17 Aug '11 17:07 / 1 edit
    Where is the Obama vs. Ron Paul poll numbers? That link omitted it or decided not to poll that.

    I have seen polls where Ron Paul was the only republican candidate that could beat Obama. Even the polls omit him when he would surely do well. Unbelievable!

    That poll is crap!

    This one is a few months old but still.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/7382-cnn-poll-ron-paul-stands-best-chance-against-obama
  3. 17 Aug '11 17:16
    Originally posted by Metal Brain
    Where is the Obama vs. Ron Paul poll numbers? That link omitted it or decided not to poll that.

    I have seen polls where Ron Paul was the only republican candidate that could beat Obama. Even the polls omit him when he would surely do well. Unbelievable!

    That poll is crap!
    True, it did not compare Paul against the President. It did compare Republicans. If you noticed. Not too bad for Paul, he came in fourth behind Bachmann and is almost double digits.

    Perry 29
    Romney 18
    Bachmann 13,
    Paul 9,
    Cain 6,
    Gingrich 5,
    Huntsman 1,
    Santorum 1
  4. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    17 Aug '11 18:16
    Originally posted by moon1969
    ABO is not running.

    The latest polls have Obama beating each of leading Republican candidates.

    Obama 45, Perry 41 Obama +4
    Obama 45, Romney 43 Obama +2
    Obama 48, Bachmann 41 Obama +7

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    If you vote in the Republcian primary, who will you vote for? And please, can we hear from more than the loyal Paul suppporter.
    I noticed you put in the RR poll about the GOP nominees but missed the RR poll about Generic R beating Obama by 6 points.

    Even in the PPP poll, Obama's 2 point lead over Romney is statistically insignificant. Most other recent polls between Obama and Romney are also within the margin of error.

    Oh, and I support Romney for the nomination.
  5. 17 Aug '11 19:05
    Originally posted by Metal Brain
    Where is the Obama vs. Ron Paul poll numbers? That link omitted it or decided not to poll that.

    I have seen polls where Ron Paul was the only republican candidate that could beat Obama. Even the polls omit him when he would surely do well. Unbelievable!

    That poll is crap!

    This one is a few months old but still.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/7382-cnn-poll-ron-paul-stands-best-chance-against-obama
    The RCP poll is liberally biased crap, and the New American is John Birch Society, and favoring Ron Paul due to his stand on the Fed. Neither is reliable, in fact there aren't any polls this far ahead of the first primary that mean anything.

    Polls of the incumbent against a generic opposition candidate tend to tell you nothing, and when you plug in specifics this early the vote is divided among the favorites.
  6. 17 Aug '11 19:10
    Originally posted by moon1969
    ABO is not running.

    The latest polls have Obama beating each of leading Republican candidates.

    Obama 45, Perry 41 Obama +4
    Obama 45, Romney 43 Obama +2
    Obama 48, Bachmann 41 Obama +7

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    If you vote in the Republcian primary, who will you vote for? And please, can we hear from more than the loyal Paul suppporter.
    One other poll at that link:

    President Obama vs. Republican Candidate Obama 42, Republican 48 Republican +6

    cited: Rasmussen Reports
  7. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    17 Aug '11 20:48
    Originally posted by sh76
    I noticed you put in the RR poll about the GOP nominees but missed the RR poll about Generic R beating Obama by 6 points.

    Even in the PPP poll, Obama's 2 point lead over Romney is statistically insignificant. Most other recent polls between Obama and Romney are also within the margin of error.

    Oh, and I support Romney for the nomination.
    If every single poll has Obama beating Romney, that is significant even if the individual polls fall within the margin of error.

    What can be reliably said is that Obama, even at the nadir of his approval ratings, is still ahead of every Republican candidate.
  8. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    17 Aug '11 20:55
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    If every single poll has Obama beating Romney, that is significant even if the individual polls fall within the margin of error.

    What can be reliably said is that Obama, even at the nadir of his approval ratings, is still ahead of every Republican candidate.
    Whether he's at the nadir of his approval ratings is yet to be seen.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    17 Aug '11 20:56 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by normbenign
    The RCP poll is liberally biased crap, and the New American is John Birch Society, and favoring Ron Paul due to his stand on the Fed. Neither is reliable, in fact there aren't any polls this far ahead of the first primary that mean anything.

    Polls of the incumbent against a generic opposition candidate tend to tell you nothing, and when you plug in specifics this early the vote is divided among the favorites.
    RCP is an aggregator; they do not poll themselves. The organization that supplied the polls in question, PPP, is a fairly good pollster.
  10. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    17 Aug '11 20:56
    Originally posted by sh76
    I noticed you put in the RR poll about the GOP nominees but missed the RR poll about Generic R beating Obama by 6 points.
    Someone should wake up Mr. (or Mrs.) Generic R and relate the great news.

    But then, this mythical beast will likely be a composition of all of the most "ideal" attributes that an R can have. No such animal...
  11. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    17 Aug '11 20:58
    Originally posted by Soothfast
    Someone should wake up Mr. (or Mrs.) Generic R and relate the great news.

    But then, this mythical beast will likely be a composition of all of the most "ideal" attributes that an R can have. No such animal...
    Generic party candidates are used all the time in polling, rarely with the favorable effect your argument would indicate they should have.
  12. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    17 Aug '11 21:38
    Originally posted by sh76
    Generic party candidates are used all the time in polling, rarely with the favorable effect your argument would indicate they should have.
    Generics usually do better in polling than actual candidates (they have no personal negative factors).
  13. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    17 Aug '11 21:41 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    Whether he's at the nadir of his approval ratings is yet to be seen.
    If your one scenario for Romney to win is that Obama's approval rating will be lower than 39% next November, then I'd say you're going to be very disappointed.

    The debt ceiling mess dropped everybody's ratings who was involved in it; Obama's by about 5 percent. This is a temporary glitch; I expect him to be back where he has been for the last year or so soon - mid 40's. He had a temporary "bump" after OBL got killed of about the same amount which soon dissipated.
  14. 17 Aug '11 21:51
    Originally posted by normbenign
    The RCP poll is liberally biased crap, and the New American is John Birch Society, and favoring Ron Paul due to his stand on the Fed. Neither is reliable, in fact there aren't any polls this far ahead of the first primary that mean anything.

    Polls of the incumbent against a generic opposition candidate tend to tell you nothing, and when you plug in specifics this early the vote is divided among the favorites.
    Here is a Rasmussen poll that has Ron Paul in a near tie.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41
  15. 17 Aug '11 21:58
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    If every single poll has Obama beating Romney, that is significant even if the individual polls fall within the margin of error.

    What can be reliably said is that Obama, even at the nadir of his approval ratings, is still ahead of every Republican candidate.
    You can say that if you want, but a known incumbent is almost always going to poll ahead of a half dozen or more possibles. When the field shakes out to one on one, the polls mean more.