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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    06 May '09 17:27 / 2 edits
    Prediction:

    The Canadian Dollar will rise above the US dollar before the end of 2009.

    Why?

    Commodity markets are improving, Oil prices are increasing, Oil Sands mergers will increase providing more transactional demand for Canadian dollars, and a general decline in the value of the US dollar from a massive dollar supply increase over the past year.


    Anyone care to disagree?


    EDIT: Canadian dollar was valued at 80 cents last week.
  2. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    06 May '09 17:41 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by uzless
    Prediction:

    The Canadian Dollar will rise above the US dollar before the end of 2009.

    Why?

    Commodity markets are improving, Oil prices are increasing, Oil Sands mergers will increase providing more transactional demand for Canadian dollars, and a general decline in the value of the US dollar from a massive dollar supply increase over the past year.


    Anyone care to disagree?


    EDIT: Canadian dollar was valued at 80 cents last week.
    The Canadian Dollar passed the US dollar for a ahort time last year.

    I wouldn't bet on it maintaining a higher rate than the USD in the short term. In the long term, when the US economy recovers and all these extra trillions of stimulus dollars are floating around, I suspect we'll see massive inflation. The ones who will really suffer are the ones holding the lion's share of the treasury notes; i.e, the Chinese.

    But, in any case, who care which dollar is worth more? It's just an arbitrary figure. The key is which direction the relative values fluctuate, not which piece of paper is worth more in a vacuum.
  3. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    06 May '09 19:22 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    .

    But, in any case, who care which dollar is worth more? It's just an arbitrary figure. The key is which direction the relative values fluctuate, not which piece of paper is worth more in a vacuum.
    Dollar values are important in predicting import/export values and trade imbalance implications.
  4. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    07 May '09 08:38
    If that's what you believe, buy some put options and make a mint.
  5. Standard member telerion
    True X X Xian
    07 May '09 13:08
    Originally posted by uzless
    Dollar values are important in predicting import/export values and trade imbalance implications.
    If that's the case then it's funny how major indicators like current accounts don't do such a good job predicting spot values in currency markets even at frequencies like 1 or 2 years.
  6. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    07 May '09 13:57 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by telerion
    If that's the case then it's funny how major indicators like current accounts don't do such a good job predicting spot values in currency markets even at frequencies like 1 or 2 years.
    I was looking at it from a gov policy perspective. If you think the Canadian dollar will increase and thus hurt exports to the US, you may want to start getting programs in place to offset that impact.
  7. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    07 May '09 13:59
    Originally posted by Palynka
    If that's what you believe, buy some put options and make a mint.
    steps ahead of you
  8. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    07 May '09 14:05
    Originally posted by uzless
    steps ahead of you
    At what price and strike did you get them?
  9. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    07 May '09 18:02
    Originally posted by Palynka
    At what price and strike did you get them?
    went a different route. nothing like a good hedge to that hog.
  10. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    07 May '09 18:12
    Originally posted by uzless
    went a different route. nothing like a good hedge to that hog.
    Forward rates? Why so mysterious?
  11. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    08 May '09 02:15
    Originally posted by Palynka
    Forward rates? Why so mysterious?
    Wasn't the "hedge" obvious enough? Pooled funds hedged against a rise in the Canadian Dollar versus the US dollar.
  12. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    21 May '09 17:59
    Originally posted by uzless
    Prediction:

    The Canadian Dollar will rise above the US dollar before the end of 2009.

    Why?

    Commodity markets are improving, Oil prices are increasing, Oil Sands mergers will increase providing more transactional demand for Canadian dollars, and a general decline in the value of the US dollar from a massive dollar supply increase over the past year.


    Anyone care to disagree?


    EDIT: Canadian dollar was valued at 80 cents last week.
    Canadian dollar is already up almost 12%.

    As of this moment the Canadian dollar is worth 87.7 cents against the US dollar.

    Anyone else's money getting caught rolling in over their hands and fists?
  13. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    22 May '09 16:34
    Originally posted by uzless
    Canadian dollar is already up almost 12%.

    As of this moment the Canadian dollar is worth 87.7 cents against the US dollar.

    Anyone else's money getting caught rolling in over their hands and fists?
    it topped 89 cents today!
  14. Standard member Palynka
    Upward Spiral
    22 May '09 18:46
    Everybody is on the edge of their seats.
  15. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    22 May '09 18:50
    Originally posted by Palynka
    Everybody with money is on the edge of their seats.
    fixed