Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Standard membersh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
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    16 Nov '18 17:56
    Let's assume Trump is the 2020 nominee. We don't know who the Dem nominee will be, of course.

    Okay, to start with, the 2 most traditional tipping point states, Florida and Ohio, both look like strong GOP states right now. Nelson and Gillum going down in FL in a very bad GOP environment can't look good for the Dems. Dewine's win and Hillary getting trounced in Ohio likewise show the state as leaning R. I'm not saying that the Dems can't win these states, but I don't see them as tipping point states right now. If the Dems win or almost win FL and especially OH, it probably means they've already won the election elsewhere.

    So, the Dems have to look elsewhere.

    The path of least resistance might be to win back the upper midwest. Win PA, WI and MI back and that's enough to put the Dems over the top if everything else holds.

    But let's assume Trump holds in the upper midwest. Where else can the Dems turn? Could Florida and North Carolina and maybe Georgia be in play? FL and one of the others would do it, even if the GOP runs the table in the upper midwest.

    What about the southwest? Arizona and maybe even Texas. Dems performed very well in TX this election.

    Does it matter who runs? Biden would presumably have an advantage in Pennsylvania. A black candidate like Harris or Booker might turn out the black vote in Michigan and Georgia. Maybe Betomania takes hold and Beto gets the nom, putting TX in play. What advantages does a northeast liberal like Warren or Sanders bring to the table?

    Discuss.
  2. Behind the scenes
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    16 Nov '18 18:40
    @sh76 said
    Let's assume Trump is the 2020 nominee. We don't know who the Dem nominee will be, of course.

    Okay, to start with, the 2 most traditional tipping point states, Florida and Ohio, both look like strong GOP states right now. Nelson and Gillum going down in FL in a very bad GOP environment can't look good for the Dems. Dewine's win and Hillary getting trounced in Ohio likewise sh ...[text shortened]... lay. What advantages does a northeast liberal like Warren or Sanders bring to the table?

    Discuss.
    I predict Democrats will win back the rust belt states, simply because the Trump administration has done next to nothing to better the lives of those steel and factory workers as promised. Florida is always a toss up, so I won't try to predict. With a few more Democratic Governors, you can bet some GOP gerrymandering of districts will go away.

    As I said before, best candidates for Democrats are Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand. Jr. Senators like these don't have a long track record the GOP can attack. The way things are going for Trump though, I wouldn't bet too heavily on the GOP in 2020.
  3. Joined
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    16 Nov '18 19:12
    @sh76 said
    Let's assume Trump is the 2020 nominee. We don't know who the Dem nominee will be, of course.

    Okay, to start with, the 2 most traditional tipping point states, Florida and Ohio, both look like strong GOP states right now. Nelson and Gillum going down in FL in a very bad GOP environment can't look good for the Dems. Dewine's win and Hillary getting trounced in Ohio likewise sh ...[text shortened]... lay. What advantages does a northeast liberal like Warren or Sanders bring to the table?

    Discuss.
    Think for a minute man!

    We need to get rid of the Electoral College to end slavery!

    I know I'm tired of all the cotton pick'in poo everyday.
  4. Subscriberno1marauder
    Humble and Kind
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    17 Nov '18 09:43
    @sh76 said
    Let's assume Trump is the 2020 nominee. We don't know who the Dem nominee will be, of course.

    Okay, to start with, the 2 most traditional tipping point states, Florida and Ohio, both look like strong GOP states right now. Nelson and Gillum going down in FL in a very bad GOP environment can't look good for the Dems. Dewine's win and Hillary getting trounced in Ohio likewise sh ...[text shortened]... lay. What advantages does a northeast liberal like Warren or Sanders bring to the table?

    Discuss.
    Before assuming Florida is favorable for Republicans, you should consider the effect that the passage of Amendment 4 might have. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/florida-felons-want-their-voting-rights-restored/570103/

    21% of that State's adult black population will be eligible to vote in 2020 rather than banned as they previously were. I think that can't help but have a measurable effect.

    Nate Silver came up with an interesting map based on the popular vote in the House in 2018:

    here’s the map you come up with if you count up the popular vote. It ought to look familiar. In fact, it’s the same exact map by which Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012, except with Ohio going to Republicans. It would have equated to 314 electoral votes for Democrats and 224 for the GOP.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/

    To me, such a map looks easily repeatable against Trump.
  5. Standard membervivify
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    17 Nov '18 10:42
    @sh76 said
    Florida and Ohio, both look like strong GOP states right now. Nelson and Gillum going down in FL in a very bad GOP environment can't look good for the Dems.
    I don't think Dems can count Florida out just yet. The difference between Hillary and Trump was about the difference in votes for a third party, Gary Johnson. Arguably, had Johnson (or Stein) not entered the race Hillary could've won Florida, and possibly the election, since some states were decided by less than 1 percent.

    Before that, Florida voted twice for Obama, even though they elected Republican governors.
  6. Standard membercaissad4
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    18 Nov '18 14:02
    @sh76
    The election in Texas this time showed some hope for the Dems. I live in Bexar County (San Antonio) and every (yes every) race which Dems contested was won by Dems. The key city is Houston which leaned Dem this time. As Houston goes so goes Texas. Here in Texas we all know that if the Reps put up Lucifer B. Satan for office all the fascists in north and west Texas would vote for him as long he was Republican. Beto did better than any Dem has done and if he were the Dem VP nominee and Houston continues the blue trend, Texas could actually be in play for the Dems. It is possible.
  7. Standard membersh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
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    18 Nov '18 18:01
    @no1marauder said
    Before assuming Florida is favorable for Republicans, you should consider the effect that the passage of Amendment 4 might have. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/florida-felons-want-their-voting-rights-restored/570103/

    21% of that State's adult black population will be eligible to vote in 2020 rather than banned as they previously were. I think that ...[text shortened]... 012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/

    To me, such a map looks easily repeatable against Trump.
    Midterms typically work against the sitting President. Of course if 2020 is like 2018, Trump will lose. But Obama rebounded in 2012 from 2010 and history indicates that there's at least a fair chance that Trump will as well.

    In a very close election, line 2016, I'm wondering if there will be any new surprise tipping point states (like Wisconsin in 2016). I'm wondering if it might be Arizona or North Carolina if Trump stays strong in the midwest.

    If Trump loses Georgia or Texas or Ohio, he's already been cooked before those states were called, in my estimate.
  8. Standard membersh76
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    18 Nov '18 18:02
    @vivify said
    I don't think Dems can count Florida out just yet. The difference between Hillary and Trump was about the difference in votes for a third party, Gary Johnson. Arguably, had Johnson (or Stein) not entered the race Hillary could've won Florida, and possibly the election, since some states were decided by less than 1 percent.

    Before that, Florida voted twice for Obama, even though they elected Republican governors.
    What makes you think Gary Johnson took more votes from Hillary than from Trump?
  9. Standard membersh76
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    18 Nov '18 18:03
    @caissad4 said
    @sh76
    The election in Texas this time showed some hope for the Dems. I live in Bexar County (San Antonio) and every (yes every) race which Dems contested was won by Dems. The key city is Houston which leaned Dem this time. As Houston goes so goes Texas. Here in Texas we all know that if the Reps put up Lucifer B. Satan for office all the fascists in north and west Texas wou ...[text shortened]... and Houston continues the blue trend, Texas could actually be in play for the Dems. It is possible.
    If Beto wins the nomination, perhaps. If it's Warren or Biden or some other northeasterner and Texas is in play, it means Trump's already lost, probably by a landslide.
  10. Germany
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    18 Nov '18 18:14
    @sh76 said
    If Beto wins the nomination, perhaps. If it's Warren or Biden or some other northeasterner and Texas is in play, it means Trump's already lost, probably by a landslide.
    Yup. This whole talk about states misses the point anyway. Voting in states is strongly correlated so that the electoral college only matters when the election is very close, and if the election is close any small unpredictable factor (like Comey's letter) can change the outcome of the election.
  11. Standard membervivify
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    18 Nov '18 18:421 edit

    Removed by poster

  12. Standard membervivify
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    18 Nov '18 18:461 edit
    @sh76 said
    What makes you think Gary Johnson took more votes from Hillary than from Trump?
    Democrats/liberals have been way more flexible in their voting choices than Republicans/conservatives. Ron Paul (a libertarian like Gary Johnson) was way more popular with liberals/Democrats than with his own party. I would've voted for Ron Paul over Obama had he won the nomination.

    Democrats are the first major party to nominate a non-white candidate and the first to nominate a woman. Bernie Sanders, and independent, was (and still is) massively popular with Dems/liberals.

    Given the much wider variety of candidates Democrats tend to vote for, it's more likely that liberals would vote for a third party. Thus, it's more likely Johnson's voters were mostly liberals, who naturally, would've voted for Clinton (if they voted at all).
  13. Standard membersh76
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    23 Nov '18 19:19
    @vivify said
    Democrats/liberals have been way more flexible in their voting choices than Republicans/conservatives. Ron Paul (a libertarian like Gary Johnson) was way more popular with liberals/Democrats than with his own party. I would've voted for Ron Paul over Obama had he won the nomination.

    Democrats are the first major party to nominate a non-white candidate and the first to nomi ...[text shortened]... son's voters were mostly liberals, who naturally, would've voted for Clinton (if they voted at all).
    I disagree. As economics are generally more important to voters than social issues, and as libertarianism and neo-liberalism are closer to the Republican economic agenda than to the Democratic one, I think libertarians take more votes from Republicans than Democrats.

    The Washington Post agrees:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/11/11/gary-johnson-helped-hillary-not-by-enough-but-he-did/
  14. Standard membersh76
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    23 Nov '18 19:23
    @kazetnagorra said
    Yup. This whole talk about states misses the point anyway. Voting in states is strongly correlated so that the electoral college only matters when the election is very close, and if the election is close any small unpredictable factor (like Comey's letter) can change the outcome of the election.
    I don't quite agree. Hillary won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes in 2016. That's close, but not that close. She won the popular vote by almost as much as Bush did in 2004.

    A structural disadvantage in the electoral college matters. A lot. Sure, if a candidate wins by 5 points, s/he is not going to lose the election, but in a tight race (as elections tend to be these days), analysis of how swing states tip is very important.
  15. Standard membervivify
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    23 Nov '18 20:222 edits
    @sh76 said
    I disagree. As economics are generally more important to voters than social issues, and as libertarianism and neo-liberalism are closer to the Republican economic agenda than to the Democratic one, I think libertarians take more votes from Republicans than Democrats.
    Yes; but again, take Ron Paul (a libertarian and Republican) as an example. He was far more popular with liberals than conservatives. In fact, Fox News was often criticized for deliberately minimizing Ron Paul's coverage, despite his popularity in the polls.

    Look at this clip of Jon Stewart (liberal) criticizing Fox News and other conservatives for deliberately ignoring Ron Paul, despite Paul getting twice the votes of GOP candidates that were mentioned:

    http://www.cc.com/video-clips/in35c7/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-indecision-2012---corn-polled-edition---ron-paul---the-top-tier

    Despite Paul being a Republican and having beliefs that more closely fit with Republican ideals, he was far more popular with liberals and Democrats. This attests to the much higher flexibility of liberals/democrats with their voting choices.

    The Washington Post agrees:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/11/11/gary-johnson-helped-hillary-not-by-enough-but-he-did/

    That was an opinion piece. This in no way means that WP agrees. In fact:

    In fact, here are their guidelines for submitting Op-Eds:
    https://helpcenter.washingtonpost.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003675788-Submit-an-op-ed

    an op-ed is an opinion essay written by a staff columnist or an outside contributor. It should have a clear point of view or argument supported by specific evidence. It does not represent the opinions of The Washington Post — in fact, it may often contradict the opinion of The Post’s Editorial Board.

    The writer of the piece you posted is a frequent contributor to "The Volokh Conspiracy", a publication whose name is a mocking reference to Hillary Clinton. The blog is a center-right publication, and it's founder is the brother of writer you posted.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Volokh_Conspiracy
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