I was willing to chalk up 2016 to a slightly abnormal polling error, but as they say "fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
The polls in 2018 were not bad, so maybe it's something specific about Trump or about Presidential elections, but the huge polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and the like cannot be chalked up again to normal polling errors.
Next time anyone says 57% of Americans believe XYZ, please remind me to to take it with a lump of salt.
Once the dust settles, I look forward to reading Nate Silver's post-mortems. He was still in denial as of yesterday (was still talking about normal polling errors). People like him had better go back to the drawing board.
05 Nov 20
@sh76 saidThere is a difference between someone saying to a person on the phone "I will vote for X and not Y" and standing in line for several hours in the cold in the middle of the week, possibly missing work.
I was willing to chalk up 2016 to a slightly abnormal polling error, but as they say "fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
The polls in 2018 were not bad, so maybe it's something specific about Trump or about Presidential elections, but the huge polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and the like cannot be chalked up again to normal polling errors. ...[text shortened]... still talking about normal polling errors). People like him had better go back to the drawing board.
But the US is not a democracy as you people like to remind us so no problem really
@zahlanzi saidThat's the problem with both the far left and far right.
There is a difference between someone saying to a person on the phone "I will vote for X and not Y" and standing in line for several hours in the cold in the middle of the week, possibly missing work.
But the US is not a democracy as you people like to remind us so no problem really
They're full of excuses no matter what happens. All the Trumpists are screaming fraud in Wisconsin and Michigan and all the leftists are screaming voter suppression.
No wingnut ever wants to take ownership of even a slightly adverse result.
Broken record.
05 Nov 20
@sh76 saidPeople should not trust poll numbers. If they could be trusted we would not need to vote, just pick the winner based on poll numbers. People do trust poll numbers enough to not vote for those polling low though. That is one example of how poll numbers can manipulate people who to not vote for in a country without ranked choice voting (Instant run-off voting).
I was willing to chalk up 2016 to a slightly abnormal polling error, but as they say "fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
The polls in 2018 were not bad, so maybe it's something specific about Trump or about Presidential elections, but the huge polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and the like cannot be chalked up again to normal polling errors. ...[text shortened]... still talking about normal polling errors). People like him had better go back to the drawing board.
That being said, polling only tells us who people would vote for if they vote. It cannot predict who will follow through and vote. Democrats picked another horrible candidate. Can you blame people for being less than enthusiastic to vote for Biden or HRC?
The democrats pick unpopular candidates to represent them. Maybe they are easily manipulated by campaign ads for these unpopular candidates. Does it all come down to money or is it more than that?
Unpopular candidates get low voter turnout. It is a no brainer. The question you should be asking is why are democrats picking highly unlikable people like creepy Joe?
Also, why didn't Trump run negative ads of creepy Joe sniffing young girl's hair and the caressing thing? Do they have a mutual agreement not to bring up each other's sexual fetishes?
05 Nov 20
The post that was quoted here has been removedExactly.
And on the OP issue: I seriously think loads of people are ashamed to admit they want to vote for trump.
And that is interesting. Why would you vote for something so embarrassing you don’t dare admit it?
Fear of a backlash?
Secretly you know what trump is?
You think it’s economically to your advantage to vote republican, but understand you’re on the wrong side of history (and don’t want to be judged by your kids)?
Or maybe, just maybe, you agree with trump’s policies, but don’t want to be associated with his loud-mouth maga supporters?
05 Nov 20
@eladar saidThey are. And just as valid as yours.
Funny how these people who do not live in the US feel like their views of reality in this country are valid.
Do you think you have a monopoly on what happens in the US just because you live there?
Oh. Yeah. By the way. I’ve lived in the US.
So on any account your opinion is as void as usual.
05 Nov 20
@shavixmir saidOk, just as my views of life in Europe are correct based on the news coverage I see. No need to see things for yourself.
They are. And just as valid as yours.
Do you think you have a monopoly on what happens in the US just because you live there?
Oh. Yeah. By the way. I’ve lived in the US.
So on any account your opinion is as void as usual.
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05 Nov 20
@zahlanzi saidPlus if you were a trump supporter and saw he’s protected to lose the elections you’d be more like to vote than someone who supports the Dems thinking it was a sure thing regardless. Same thing happened with Brexit in the UK.
There is a difference between someone saying to a person on the phone "I will vote for X and not Y" and standing in line for several hours in the cold in the middle of the week, possibly missing work.
But the US is not a democracy as you people like to remind us so no problem really
05 Nov 20
@eladar saidThat is the difference between you and me.
Ok, just as my views of life in Europe are correct based on the news coverage I see. No need to see things for yourself.
I’ve lived in the US.
I was there a few years ago.
I have very close friends who live there.
And I read / watch a lot more than just news coverage.
Indeed, if you actually knew me you’d comprehend that there are lots of things I love about the US.
From the music, to the scenery, to LA and to the whole atmosphere in the deep South.
My general views on US politics have always been critical of their foreign policy (with the exception of the US’s opinion on the Versailles treaties in 1918/19).
However, one can’t not hear trump. And he is destroying the fabric of US democracy.
He’s so polarizing, you should be worried.
The mere fact you are not worried says something about how deeply you’re invested in this paranoid BS.
And it has nothing to do with anyone’s ability to see what’s going on.
And certainly not about judging. Let’s be honest, when two football teams are slogging it out, the referee is not from one of the two teams, is he?
And there is a reason for that.
@shavixmir saidAh, ok you lived in the US and have personal friends who would vote for Trump because he is not Biden.
That is the difference between you and me.
I’ve lived in the US.
I was there a few years ago.
I have very close friends who live there.
And I read / watch a lot more than just news coverage.
Indeed, if you actually knew me you’d comprehend that there are lots of things I love about the US.
From the music, to the scenery, to LA and to the whole atmosphere in the de ...[text shortened]... ging it out, the referee is not from one of the two teams, is he?
And there is a reason for that.
In what city did you live?