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Debates Forum

  1. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 01:23
    Not looking great for Dems in IN or AZ exit polls. Nelson should hang on in FL but it will be closer than expected.

    I still think they'll take the House, but the Senate is slipping away.

    It's very, very early, but it's shaping up to be a slight underperformance for the Dems.
  2. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 01:27
    Braun still up 17 points in Indiana with 37% reporting. I don't see how Donnelly comes back from this.
  3. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 01:32
    @sh76 said
    Not looking great for Dems in IN or AZ exit polls. Nelson should hang on in FL but it will be closer than expected.

    I still think they'll take the House, but the Senate is slipping away.

    It's very, very early, but it's shaping up to be a slight underperformance for the Dems.
    Nelson has fallen slightly behind Scott.

    The Dems are going to need major pickups in PA, CA perhaps NY and a few other places to flip the House.
  4. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 01:34
    @no1marauder said
    Nelson has fallen slightly behind Scott.

    The Dems are going to need major pickups in PA, CA perhaps NY and a few other places to flip the House.
    Looks like you were right on Indiana. The pundits had Donnelly as a favorite.
  5. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 01:35
    @sh76 said
    Looks like you were right on Indiana. The pundits had Donnelly as a favorite.
    Sometimes I hate being so smart ...........................................................
  6. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 01:37
    @no1marauder said
    Nelson has fallen slightly behind Scott.

    The Dems are going to need major pickups in PA, CA perhaps NY and a few other places to flip the House.
    Less than half the precincts have reported on Broward so that's good news for Nelson. But there's also still a lot of vote out in the panhandle. I'd make Nelson a 4-3 favorite right now but Gillum-DeSantis is a toss-up.
  7. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 01:56
    @sh76 said
    Less than half the precincts have reported on Broward so that's good news for Nelson. But there's also still a lot of vote out in the panhandle. I'd make Nelson a 4-3 favorite right now but Gillum-DeSantis is a toss-up.
    Looking at these figures: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-senate

    I'd say Nelson should still win. He's up by almost 200,000 in Broward with only 51% of precincts reporting and pretty much every sizeable county where Scott is winning has reported 90% of the vote or more. And there's still a 1/3 of the vote from Palm Beach where he's up close to 90,000 and about 15% from Miami-Dade where is he winning by over 150,000. It doesn't look likely Scott's 70,000 vote lead is going to hold up unless I'm missing something.
  8. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 01:58
    @no1marauder said
    Looking at these figures: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-senate

    I'd say Nelson should still win. He's up by almost 200,000 in Broward with only 51% of precincts reporting and pretty much every sizeable county where Scott is winning has reported 90% of the vote or more. And there's still a 1/3 of the vote from Palm Beach where he's up close to 90,000 ...[text shortened]... 0. It doesn't look likely Scott's 70,000 vote lead is going to hold up unless I'm missing something.
    I tend to agree, but I think Gillum is in trouble.
  9. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 02:06
    @no1marauder said
    Looking at these figures: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-senate

    I'd say Nelson should still win. He's up by almost 200,000 in Broward with only 51% of precincts reporting and pretty much every sizeable county where Scott is winning has reported 90% of the vote or more. And there's still a 1/3 of the vote from Palm Beach where he's up close to 90,000 ...[text shortened]... 0. It doesn't look likely Scott's 70,000 vote lead is going to hold up unless I'm missing something.
    Betting markets think Nelson will lose.

    You can buy Nelson to win for 8 cents right now.
  10. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 02:08
    @sh76 said
    I tend to agree, but I think Gillum is in trouble.
    HMM, 20% more of the Broward vote came in and Nelson only gained 10,000 there.

    He might still lose.
  11. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 02:08
    @no1marauder said
    Looking at these figures: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida-senate

    I'd say Nelson should still win. He's up by almost 200,000 in Broward with only 51% of precincts reporting and pretty much every sizeable county where Scott is winning has reported 90% of the vote or more. And there's still a 1/3 of the vote from Palm Beach where he's up close to 90,000 ...[text shortened]... 0. It doesn't look likely Scott's 70,000 vote lead is going to hold up unless I'm missing something.
    BTW, the hole in your analysis might be that in 2016, election day vote broke heavily for Trump in FL. That might be happening again, keeping the proportions down even in Dem counties.

    FL went similarly in 2016, though Trump's lead was bigger than Scott's.
  12. Subscriberdivegeester
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    07 Nov '18 02:24
    @sh76 said
    Not looking great for Dems in IN or AZ exit polls. Nelson should hang on in FL but it will be closer than expected.

    I still think they'll take the House, but the Senate is slipping away.

    It's very, very early, but it's shaping up to be a slight underperformance for the Dems.
    If they take the house as you suggest, isn’t that a great accomplishment and big problems for Trumpton?
  13. Standard membersh76
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    07 Nov '18 02:28
    @divegeester said
    If they take the house as you suggest, isn’t that a great accomplishment and big problems for Trumpton?
    No.

    Presidents almost always lose ground in its midterm.

    A 25-30 seat gain for the Dems and a net loss of 2-3 Senate seats is a very ho-hum performance for the Dems.
  14. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 02:31
    @divegeester said
    If they take the house as you suggest, isn’t that a great accomplishment and big problems for Trumpton?
    It looks like the House is no sure thing. It may very well come down to a few dozen races that are super tight. Right now the Democratic challengers have leads of a few thousand votes in FL-26 and VA-2 with 90% of the vote in, but that's not a lock.

    In most States, the Dems aren't doing as well as expected SO FAR.
  15. Subscriberno1marauder
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    07 Nov '18 02:33
    @sh76 said
    No.

    Presidents almost always lose ground in its midterm.

    A 25-30 seat gain for the Dems and a net loss of 2-3 Senate seats is a very ho-hum performance for the Dems.
    I tend to disagree; rarely is there a Senate map as crappy for a party as this one was for the Democrats.

    A Florida loss will be a disappointment, but really Indiana was an uphill climb.

    And if the Dems take the House it will be far more important than losing a few Senate seats.
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