Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Joined
    11 Oct '04
    Moves
    5232
    21 Apr '17 09:461 edit
    As Peter Snow would have said 'Just a bit of fun....'

    You need to make a prediction of the number of seats each of the 6 largest parties (by number of votes cast at the last general election) will get at the next general election.

    For every seat your prediction is away from the actual result, you will receive points on the following basis:

    Conservative / Labour : 1pt per seat away

    Liberal Democrats : 3 pts per seat

    Scottish Nationalists : 5pts per seat

    UKIP / Greens : 10pts per seat

    So, if you predict 180 Labour seats, and the result is 190, you receive 10 pts.

    If you predict 2 UKIP seats, and the result is 0, you receive 20 pts.

    The winner is the person with the lowest total points tally. In the event of a tie, the most accurate Conservative prediction will win, followed by Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green, and then a toss of a coin.

    To help you, the following is a (very rough) guide to where the bookies opened their betting (do your own research as these things change very quickly):

    Conservatives 384
    Labour 162
    Liberal Democrats 28
    Scottish Nationalists 52
    UKIP 0
    Greens 1

    Please post your predictions no later than midnight on Wednesday 7 June (UK time).

    Good luck
  2. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    527960
    21 Apr '17 11:25
    If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

    A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
  3. Joined
    11 Oct '04
    Moves
    5232
    21 Apr '17 11:531 edit
    Originally posted by Ponderable
    If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

    A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
    Yes, each constituency returns a single MP. There is no proportional representation.

    Yes, in an ideal world, you would look at the candidates in each constituency, consider tactical voting and come up with a winner for each. No-one will do that. Some will look at the opinion polls, see how these will roughly translate into seats, and then adjust this for their own personal beliefs of how things will go. Some will just ignore the polls and go with their gut.

    Electoral calculus has a calculator which can translate share of votes into seats, though this is obviously very basic, and ignores local factors.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    The weightings of points are designed to reflect the range of results that could arise. Labour and Conservative have wide ranges of results simply due to having so many more seats. So these are weighted less heavily.

    By contrast, although the SNP are predicted quite a few seats more than the Lib Dems, these are generally much 'safer' and easier to predict than I would say the Lib Dems are. I doubt SNP would fall much below 50, or go above 55. The Lid Dems could go anywhere from 10 to 50, as they had a catastrophic last election.

    Of course, this is just my view.
  4. Subscriberdivegeester
    Leave Means Leave
    Voting not marching!
    Joined
    16 Feb '08
    Moves
    88886
    21 Apr '17 12:281 edit
    Originally posted by Rank outsider
    Yes, each constituency returns a single MP. There is no proportional representation.

    Yes, in an ideal world, you would look at the candidates in each constituency, consider tactical voting and come up with a winner for each. No-one will do that. Some will look at the opinion polls, see how these will roughly translate into seats, and then adjust ...[text shortened]... ere from 10 to 50, as they had a catastrophic last election.

    Of course, this is just my view.
    One of the biggest tactical factors is how many disaffected Tory remainers there are who may vote Labour just feel some level of satisfactory revenge. Of course this would be a stupid thing to do as the UK needs strong leadership with a clear mandate in order to facilitate the most effective and efficient Brexit outcomes.

    I predict Labour will lose a large proportion of their vote but I'm not yet clear how this will translate into seats.
  5. SubscriberGhost of a Duke
    A Spirited Misfit
    in London
    Joined
    14 Mar '15
    Moves
    11027
    21 Apr '17 13:07
    Conservatives 418
    Labour 121
    Liberal Democrats 35
    Scottish Nationalists 52
    UKIP 0
    Greens 0
  6. Subscriberdivegeester
    Leave Means Leave
    Voting not marching!
    Joined
    16 Feb '08
    Moves
    88886
    21 Apr '17 13:09
    Originally posted by Ghost of a Duke
    Conservatives 418
    Labour 121
    Liberal Democrats 35
    Scottish Nationalists 52
    UKIP 0
    Greens 0
    Who ate the greens?
  7. Joined
    11 Oct '04
    Moves
    5232
    21 Apr '17 13:19
    Originally posted by Ghost of a Duke
    Conservatives 418
    Labour 121
    Liberal Democrats 35
    Scottish Nationalists 52
    UKIP 0
    Greens 0
    Finnegan asked me to pass on a message to you. It reads:

    That's it mate. Come the revolution, you'll be first against the wall bop-bop-bop!

    Prize to anyone who can name the character without Googling.
  8. SubscriberC J Horse
    A stable personality
    Near my hay.
    Joined
    27 Apr '06
    Moves
    52425
    21 Apr '17 13:21
    Conservatives 390
    Labour 158
    Liberal Democrats 25
    Scottish Nationalists 53
    UKIP 0
    Greens 1
  9. Joined
    10 Jan '08
    Moves
    10372
    21 Apr '17 14:19
    Can we add the northern Irish parties?
  10. Joined
    20 Oct '16
    Moves
    8803
    21 Apr '17 14:21
    Originally posted by Trev33
    Can we add the northern Irish parties?
    Good point
  11. Joined
    11 Oct '04
    Moves
    5232
    21 Apr '17 14:27
    Originally posted by Trev33
    Can we add the northern Irish parties?
    Sorry, I wanted to keep it simple.

    It's nothing personal or political, I simply included any party that got at least 1m votes.
  12. Subscriberdivegeester
    Leave Means Leave
    Voting not marching!
    Joined
    16 Feb '08
    Moves
    88886
    21 Apr '17 15:10
    Originally posted by Rank outsider
    Finnegan asked me to pass on a message to you. It reads:

    That's it mate. Come the revolution, you'll be first against the wall bop-bop-bop!

    Prize to anyone who can name the character without Googling.
    Wolfie Smith?
  13. Standard memberDeepThought
    Losing the Thread
    Cosmopolis
    Joined
    27 Oct '04
    Moves
    80056
    21 Apr '17 18:49
    Originally posted by Ponderable
    If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

    A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
    Britisch?
  14. Joined
    11 Oct '04
    Moves
    5232
    21 Apr '17 21:131 edit
    Originally posted by divegeester
    Wolfie Smith?
    Correct.

    Your prize is be on suicide watch for finnegan on June 9
  15. Standard memberfinnegan
    GENS UNA SUMUS
    To the Left
    Joined
    25 Jun '06
    Moves
    64930
    21 Apr '17 21:401 edit
    Originally posted by divegeester
    One of the biggest tactical factors is how many disaffected remainers there are who may vote Labour just feel some level of satisfactory revenge. Of course this would be a stupid thing to do as the UK needs strong leadership with a clear mandate in order to facilitate the most effective and efficient Brexit outcomes.

    I predict Labour will lose a large proportion of their vote but I'm not yet clear how this will translate into seats.
    Do you advocate parliamentary democracy or electoral dictatorship?

    Any PM with a very large majority is relatively secure from any serious parliamentary challenge, as Blair demonstrated in dragging the UK into stupid and avoidable wars alongside the USA, in the teeth of immense public protest which has been proven well justified.

    May is working on an agenda that she will not publicly admit to and would not win pubic support fort if she did. You could take your model from Cameron's pledge: "There will be no top down reorganisation of the NHS" as he wept juicy tears over his disabled son whenever challenged with a serious question. Today the NHS is little more than a brand name. She and her cronies - Liam Fox notably with his close ties to the Heritage Foundation - will be transforming this country into a tax haven for multinationals in which public services are diminished to a brutal vestige of their historic roles.

    She is far from a safe of moderate pair of hands. Her agenda is radical and savage. If elected she will get the unique opportunity to tear up and rewrite forty years worth of legislation, and the level of scrutiny provided by a significant Tory majority will be risible.

    You saw the ludicrous public grasp and media scrutiny (non existent) of Brexit's implications. There will be no penalty for the proven lies thrown about by the leave campaign: the media just laugh at it all. This is only the start.
Back to Top