# UK General Election Prediction Competition

Rank outsider
Debates 21 Apr '17 09:46
1. 21 Apr '17 09:461 edit
As Peter Snow would have said 'Just a bit of fun....'

You need to make a prediction of the number of seats each of the 6 largest parties (by number of votes cast at the last general election) will get at the next general election.

For every seat your prediction is away from the actual result, you will receive points on the following basis:

Conservative / Labour : 1pt per seat away

Liberal Democrats : 3 pts per seat

Scottish Nationalists : 5pts per seat

UKIP / Greens : 10pts per seat

So, if you predict 180 Labour seats, and the result is 190, you receive 10 pts.

If you predict 2 UKIP seats, and the result is 0, you receive 20 pts.

The winner is the person with the lowest total points tally. In the event of a tie, the most accurate Conservative prediction will win, followed by Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green, and then a toss of a coin.

To help you, the following is a (very rough) guide to where the bookies opened their betting (do your own research as these things change very quickly):

Conservatives 384
Labour 162
Liberal Democrats 28
Scottish Nationalists 52
UKIP 0
Greens 1

Please post your predictions no later than midnight on Wednesday 7 June (UK time).

Good luck
2. Ponderable
chemist
21 Apr '17 11:25
If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
3. 21 Apr '17 11:531 edit
Originally posted by Ponderable
If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
Yes, each constituency returns a single MP. There is no proportional representation.

Yes, in an ideal world, you would look at the candidates in each constituency, consider tactical voting and come up with a winner for each. No-one will do that. Some will look at the opinion polls, see how these will roughly translate into seats, and then adjust this for their own personal beliefs of how things will go. Some will just ignore the polls and go with their gut.

Electoral calculus has a calculator which can translate share of votes into seats, though this is obviously very basic, and ignores local factors.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

The weightings of points are designed to reflect the range of results that could arise. Labour and Conservative have wide ranges of results simply due to having so many more seats. So these are weighted less heavily.

By contrast, although the SNP are predicted quite a few seats more than the Lib Dems, these are generally much 'safer' and easier to predict than I would say the Lib Dems are. I doubt SNP would fall much below 50, or go above 55. The Lid Dems could go anywhere from 10 to 50, as they had a catastrophic last election.

Of course, this is just my view.
4. divegeester
Leave Means Leave
21 Apr '17 12:281 edit
Originally posted by Rank outsider
Yes, each constituency returns a single MP. There is no proportional representation.

Yes, in an ideal world, you would look at the candidates in each constituency, consider tactical voting and come up with a winner for each. No-one will do that. Some will look at the opinion polls, see how these will roughly translate into seats, and then adjust ...[text shortened]... ere from 10 to 50, as they had a catastrophic last election.

Of course, this is just my view.
One of the biggest tactical factors is how many disaffected Tory remainers there are who may vote Labour just feel some level of satisfactory revenge. Of course this would be a stupid thing to do as the UK needs strong leadership with a clear mandate in order to facilitate the most effective and efficient Brexit outcomes.

I predict Labour will lose a large proportion of their vote but I'm not yet clear how this will translate into seats.
5. Ghost of a Duke
A Spirited Misfit
21 Apr '17 13:07
Conservatives 418
Labour 121
Liberal Democrats 35
Scottish Nationalists 52
UKIP 0
Greens 0
6. divegeester
Leave Means Leave
21 Apr '17 13:09
Originally posted by Ghost of a Duke
Conservatives 418
Labour 121
Liberal Democrats 35
Scottish Nationalists 52
UKIP 0
Greens 0
Who ate the greens?
7. 21 Apr '17 13:19
Originally posted by Ghost of a Duke
Conservatives 418
Labour 121
Liberal Democrats 35
Scottish Nationalists 52
UKIP 0
Greens 0
Finnegan asked me to pass on a message to you. It reads:

That's it mate. Come the revolution, you'll be first against the wall bop-bop-bop!

Prize to anyone who can name the character without Googling.
8. C J Horse
A stable personality
21 Apr '17 13:21
Conservatives 390
Labour 158
Liberal Democrats 25
Scottish Nationalists 53
UKIP 0
Greens 1
9. 21 Apr '17 14:19
Can we add the northern Irish parties?
10. 21 Apr '17 14:21
Originally posted by Trev33
Can we add the northern Irish parties?
Good point
11. 21 Apr '17 14:27
Originally posted by Trev33
Can we add the northern Irish parties?
Sorry, I wanted to keep it simple.

It's nothing personal or political, I simply included any party that got at least 1m votes.
12. divegeester
Leave Means Leave
21 Apr '17 15:10
Originally posted by Rank outsider
Finnegan asked me to pass on a message to you. It reads:

That's it mate. Come the revolution, you'll be first against the wall bop-bop-bop!

Prize to anyone who can name the character without Googling.
Wolfie Smith?
13. DeepThought
21 Apr '17 18:49
Originally posted by Ponderable
If I understand the Britisch System correctly it is there is only the winner of a given constituency going to Wetsminster. So I would have to evaluate the Chances in each constituency to see what candidate has the highest probablity...

A winning strategy for the given poll would be to get the "outside" parties correct and the main parties with a okay Deviation.
Britisch?
14. 21 Apr '17 21:131 edit
Originally posted by divegeester
Wolfie Smith?
Correct.

Your prize is be on suicide watch for finnegan on June 9
15. finnegan
GENS UNA SUMUS
21 Apr '17 21:401 edit
Originally posted by divegeester
One of the biggest tactical factors is how many disaffected remainers there are who may vote Labour just feel some level of satisfactory revenge. Of course this would be a stupid thing to do as the UK needs strong leadership with a clear mandate in order to facilitate the most effective and efficient Brexit outcomes.

I predict Labour will lose a large proportion of their vote but I'm not yet clear how this will translate into seats.
Do you advocate parliamentary democracy or electoral dictatorship?

Any PM with a very large majority is relatively secure from any serious parliamentary challenge, as Blair demonstrated in dragging the UK into stupid and avoidable wars alongside the USA, in the teeth of immense public protest which has been proven well justified.

May is working on an agenda that she will not publicly admit to and would not win pubic support fort if she did. You could take your model from Cameron's pledge: "There will be no top down reorganisation of the NHS" as he wept juicy tears over his disabled son whenever challenged with a serious question. Today the NHS is little more than a brand name. She and her cronies - Liam Fox notably with his close ties to the Heritage Foundation - will be transforming this country into a tax haven for multinationals in which public services are diminished to a brutal vestige of their historic roles.

She is far from a safe of moderate pair of hands. Her agenda is radical and savage. If elected she will get the unique opportunity to tear up and rewrite forty years worth of legislation, and the level of scrutiny provided by a significant Tory majority will be risible.

You saw the ludicrous public grasp and media scrutiny (non existent) of Brexit's implications. There will be no penalty for the proven lies thrown about by the leave campaign: the media just laugh at it all. This is only the start.