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where did tariffs numbers come from?

where did tariffs numbers come from?

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2 edits

Lots of folks on the right and the left are confused where Trump's numbers came from on tariffs, since they don't seem grounded in any meaningful measurements of reality.

Here's the best theory. Trump's team was soo absurdly lazy, so obsessed with texting avocado emojis to each other, so distracted by musks musk, that they offloaded the job of "how much do other countries charge in tariffs" to a poorly programmed AI chatbot.

The chatbot was so far off on the actual numbers - hallucinating on shrooms at a grateful dead show - that they exacted tariffs on islands with zero people living there. Penguins.

They went with it anyway. Stupid, lazy, or both? No wrong answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/donald-trump-tariffs-ai-hallucination


@wildgrass said
Lots of folks on the right and the left are confused where Trump's numbers came from on tariffs, since they don't seem grounded in any meaningful measurements of reality.

Here's the best theory. Trump's team was soo absurdly lazy, so obsessed with texting avocado emojis to each other, so distracted by musks musk, that they offloaded the job of "how much do other countrie ...[text shortened]... wers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/donald-trump-tariffs-ai-hallucination
There is no bottom to Cantaloupe Caligula's boorishness, depravity, and ignorance. The same goes for the GOP as a whole, but throw in cowardice to boot.

It is time to invoke the 25th Amendment. There is a raving, demented madman on the throne. He cannot have further access to the nuclear football.


@wildgrass said
Lots of folks on the right and the left are confused where Trump's numbers came from on tariffs, since they don't seem grounded in any meaningful measurements of reality.

Here's the best theory. Trump's team was soo absurdly lazy, so obsessed with texting avocado emojis to each other, so distracted by musks musk, that they offloaded the job of "how much do other countrie ...[text shortened]... wers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/donald-trump-tariffs-ai-hallucination
It's even stupider than that:

"To calculate the tariffs it decided to impose on countries around the world, the White House used a formula that focused on trade deficits and total exports. The formula didn’t include an assessment of tariff rates for specific products in individual countries, or take into account other trade barriers that weren’t tariffs.


Instead, the reciprocal tariff rate applied to each country was: their trade deficit divided by exports to the U.S., divided by two.

If the country has a trade surplus with the U.S., or the number resulting from the above formula was less than 10%, then a flat rate of 10% was applied."

"The U.S. trade representative’s office, which played a major role in Trump’s tariff policy, said this was the formula it used. It also acknowledged the difficulty of calculating reciprocal tariff rates based on a detailed analysis of each country's trade barriers.

“While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero,” the statement from the trade representative’s office read."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariff-numbers-appear-calculated-183605650.html

It's amateur hour.


@no1marauder said
It's even stupider than that:

"To calculate the tariffs it decided to impose on countries around the world, the White House used a formula that focused on trade deficits and total exports. The formula didn’t include an assessment of tariff rates for specific products in individual countries, or take into account other trade barriers that weren’t tariffs.


Instead, ...[text shortened]... tps://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariff-numbers-appear-calculated-183605650.html

It's amateur hour.
It's amateur hour.
More like Toddlers hour.


@no1marauder said
It's even stupider than that:

"To calculate the tariffs it decided to impose on countries around the world, the White House used a formula that focused on trade deficits and total exports. The formula didn’t include an assessment of tariff rates for specific products in individual countries, or take into account other trade barriers that weren’t tariffs.


Instead, ...[text shortened]... tps://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariff-numbers-appear-calculated-183605650.html

It's amateur hour.
That's insanely stupid. Like watering crops with Gatorade kind of stupid.

I hope they're checking with a grownup to make sure their shoes are on the right feet every morning before "work".

1 edit

@wildgrass said
That's insanely stupid. Like watering crops with Gatorade kind of stupid.

I hope they're checking with a grownup to make sure their shoes are on the right feet every morning before "work".
The idea that it would be even desirable to drive "bilateral trade deficits to zero" is so insane you wonder if any of these guys got through ECO 101. Somebody needs to do some remedial reading starting with Ricardo's theory of Comparative Advantage (it's only been accepted in economic circles for oh 200+ years). https://www.britannica.com/money/comparative-advantage


@no1marauder said
It's even stupider than that:

"To calculate the tariffs it decided to impose on countries around the world, the White House used a formula that focused on trade deficits and total exports. The formula didn’t include an assessment of tariff rates for specific products in individual countries, or take into account other trade barriers that weren’t tariffs.


Instead, ...[text shortened]... tps://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariff-numbers-appear-calculated-183605650.html

It's amateur hour.
If they compared trade deficits - which is obviously not even close to reciprocal tariffs - then how do the islands populated only by penguins get slapped with exorbitant tariffs?

2 edits

@wildgrass said
If they compared trade deficits - which is obviously not even close to reciprocal tariffs - then how do the islands populated only by penguins get slapped with exorbitant tariffs?
"If the country has a trade surplus with the U.S., or the number resulting from the above formula was less than 10%, then a flat rate of 10% was applied."

So if the deficit was zero because the trade was zero, you get the default 10%.

EDIT: Technically, that is not correct because zero divided by zero is "undefined" which isn't less than 10% but if they don't know economics you can't expect them to know math.


@wildgrass said
Lots of folks on the right and the left are confused where Trump's numbers came from on tariffs, since they don't seem grounded in any meaningful measurements of reality.

Here's the best theory. Trump's team was soo absurdly lazy, so obsessed with texting avocado emojis to each other, so distracted by musks musk, that they offloaded the job of "how much do other countrie ...[text shortened]... wers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/04/donald-trump-tariffs-ai-hallucination

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