NFL Stats (2008 Revisited)

NFL Stats (2008 Revisited)




Here's window one of three. First two are preliminary and yet essential to the third, which I'm hoping will spark some insightful discussion.



WINDOW ONE... 2008 NFL Season Results Based on Spread Points Covered



* Regular Season (17 weeks)... Favorites = 115..... Underdogs = 141..... Total games = 256

* Post Season (4 weeks).......... Favorites = 4 ....... Underdogs = 7......... Total Games = 11



* 2008 Season Total.................Favorites = 119..... Underdogs = 148......Total Games = 267

* Percent of Total......................................44.6%..................... 55.4%




Note: Weekly spread data source... http://home.cogeco.ca/~qbsports/


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Postscript: Significant to note that 2008 NFL Underdogs covered 24.4% more morning line spreads than Favorites (148-119 = 29 games/119 = 24.4).

has there been a similar underdog advantage for prior seasons or was this just a one-year aberration?

if this is a persistent trend, I would imagine that the bettors will eventually pick up on it and bet more strongly under underdogs - probably reducing the average point spread by a point or so - and getting things back to the expected 50-50 level

on the other hand, it might be a human nature thing that's not easily overcome -- and does it extend to the stock market? - "underdog" stocks might tend to be underpriced and "favored" stocks might tend to be overpriced

Originally posted by Melanerpes
has there been a similar underdog advantage for prior seasons or was this just a one-year aberration?

if this is a persistent trend, I would imagine that the bettors will eventually pick up on it and bet more strongly under underdogs - probably reducing the average point spread by a point or so - and getting things back to the expected 50-50 level

o erdog" stocks might tend to be underpriced and "favored" stocks might tend to be overpriced

Interesting observations. Gut tells tells me there's a lead/lag factor. Teams that have been doing well but may now have sustained injuries tend

to be overbet against lower achieving teams which are healthy and ready to surprise. Only began tracking in 2008. Inclined to believe these stats

are probably more representative than not, because the oddsmakers keep the lights on in Las Vegas. Window Two presents Casino Performance.

Originally posted by Melanerpes
has there been a similar underdog advantage for prior seasons or was this just a one-year aberration?

if this is a persistent trend, I would imagine that the bettors will eventually pick up on it and bet more strongly under underdogs - probably reducing the average point spread by a point or so - and getting things back to the expected 50-50 level

o ...[text shortened]... erdog" stocks might tend to be underpriced and "favored" stocks might tend to be overpriced

Favorite/Underdog pattern persists through NFL 2009 Week #6.