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  1. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    02 Dec '12 01:34
    Wow! What a game! Terrible clock management at the end. With 15 seconds left, you have to clock the ball. Why are you saving the down? you only have 15 seconds with is time for 3 plays at most. If you clock it, you have 3 downs left. Running a hurried play make no sense there.

    Then, and this goes without saying, you can't catch the ball in the field of play. I know it's only a college kid, but still...
  2. 02 Dec '12 02:36 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    Wow! What a game! Terrible clock management at the end. With 15 seconds left, you have to clock the ball. Why are you saving the down? you only have 15 seconds with is time for 3 plays at most. If you clock it, you have 3 downs left. Running a hurried play make no sense there.

    Then, and this goes without saying, you can't catch the ball in the field of play. I know it's only a college kid, but still...
    Yep. Alabama generally did what they had to do to win this game and against LSU, for example. But they had a little help from the opposing team.

    The Alabama/ND game is going to be interesting.
  3. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    02 Dec '12 13:05
    I watched the game. I think ND is going to beat Alabama. The Tide's pass defense was quite weak and Saban coached like a fool (you really don't need to hold onto all three of your timeouts with 20 seconds left in the first half, Coach). Alabama is not going to run for 350 yards against the Irish defense. If ND doesn't turn the ball over 3+ times, they will win - Alabama is going to have a lot of problems scoring (their red zone offense struggled and ND's red zone defense is the best in the country)and Golson can exploit that secondary.

    Prediction: ND 24 Alabama 16
  4. 02 Dec '12 14:17
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I watched the game. I think ND is going to beat Alabama. The Tide's pass defense was quite weak and Saban coached like a fool (you really don't need to hold onto all three of your timeouts with 20 seconds left in the first half, Coach). Alabama is not going to run for 350 yards against the Irish defense. If ND doesn't turn the ball over 3+ times, they wi ...[text shortened]... the country)and Golson can exploit that secondary.

    Prediction: ND 24 Alabama 16
    Agree entirely. I could not have put it better. Georgia should have won but did not. Bama won't get ref help in NCG like they did against Georgia. It was shameful at times how flags were not thrown for vicious helmet to helmet hits. Another detail is that Bama's nose tackle will likely not be available and a review of the vicious hit against Murray should result in a one game suspension against Bama player. This time Bama should be the one fearing opponent. ND is for real!
  5. 02 Dec '12 22:27
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I watched the game. I think ND is going to beat Alabama. The Tide's pass defense was quite weak and Saban coached like a fool (you really don't need to hold onto all three of your timeouts with 20 seconds left in the first half, Coach). Alabama is not going to run for 350 yards against the Irish defense. If ND doesn't turn the ball over 3+ times, they wi ...[text shortened]... the country)and Golson can exploit that secondary.

    Prediction: ND 24 Alabama 16
    Wut?

    I'm thinking Crimson Tide 34 and ND 13.
  6. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    03 Dec '12 03:24
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I watched the game. I think ND is going to beat Alabama. The Tide's pass defense was quite weak and Saban coached like a fool (you really don't need to hold onto all three of your timeouts with 20 seconds left in the first half, Coach). Alabama is not going to run for 350 yards against the Irish defense. If ND doesn't turn the ball over 3+ times, they wi ...[text shortened]... the country)and Golson can exploit that secondary.

    Prediction: ND 24 Alabama 16
    I don't know. I would love to see ND win because I'm sick of the SEC winning everything and did we really need to hear all about how 'Bama could beat an NFL team?

    But bread and butter wise, their offensive line dominated. GA could have won, but they got there on the strength on long bombs and that blocked FG mainly. ND's defensive line is going to have to have to play very well to keep Alabama from controlling the game.
  7. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    03 Dec '12 16:57
    Originally posted by sh76
    I don't know. I would love to see ND win because I'm sick of the SEC winning everything and did we really need to hear all about how 'Bama could beat an NFL team?

    But bread and butter wise, their offensive line dominated. GA could have won, but they got there on the strength on long bombs and that blocked FG mainly. ND's defensive line is going to have to have to play very well to keep Alabama from controlling the game.
    ND's front seven on D is the best in the country. I think we can do to Alabama what we did to Oklahoma, a team which averaged 40 a game and has a better QB than Bama. The Tide will get some yards (though not 350 on the ground), but we'll do a better job in Red Zone D than LSU did.

    I'm feeling it; the SEC's run ends on January 7th.
  8. 04 Dec '12 00:42
    The opening line was Alabama favored by 9, and with the over/under = 42.

    Apparently, so far today, more people are betting on Alabama than ND, as the line move to from 9 to 9.5 or 10.
  9. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Dec '12 01:15
    Originally posted by moon1969
    The opening line was Alabama favored by 9, and with the over/under = 42.

    Apparently, so far today, more people are betting on Alabama than ND, as the line move to from 9 to 9.5 or 10.
    Good. A bunch of rednecks are going to lose a lot of money.
  10. 04 Dec '12 08:06 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Good. A bunch of rednecks are going to lose a lot of money.
    I wondered what were the factors that went into the bookies setting the line at Alabama -9

    That's a fairly steep line.
  11. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Dec '12 15:57
    Originally posted by moon1969
    I wondered what were the factors that went into the bookies setting the line at Alabama -9

    That's a fairly steep line.
    Bookies set lines where they think 50% will bet for one side and 50% for other. The SEC has won 6 Championships in a row and is properly believed to be the best conference by a fairly wide margin. Bama is defending National Champion.

    It makes sense. But I'll be very surprised if Notre Dame gets blown out.
  12. 04 Dec '12 20:16
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Bookies set lines where they think 50% will bet for one side and 50% for other. The SEC has won 6 Championships in a row and is properly believed to be the best conference by a fairly wide margin. Bama is defending National Champion.

    It makes sense. But I'll be very surprised if Notre Dame gets blown out.
    Your explanation makes sense, and kind of what I was thinking. I just wonder that ND is a national team with a national following, and there would be many bettting on ND. (I made money betting against ND long ago in the past when I used to do that sort of thing.) Alabama has a good coach and talent, but does no look quite as strong this year, though still a strong team. ND is undefeated with a good coach and a lot of talent, and with just as much a national following and positive bias as Alabama? I know the SEC has dominated in recent years, and I guess ND being down for a couple of decades has hurt their perfomance prestige. Anyway, I was thinking Alabama -3 was about right.

    This explanation below of how the odds are initially set seems a little internally inconsistent to me. Why put much emphasis on the playing surface, for example, when the bookie is not predicting outcome but instead how people will bet, and I would think the type of playing surface does not much influence people who bet.

    Setting the line is a matter of intense research, carefully cultivated contacts, years of experience and plain old intuition. An oddsmaker's reputation is based on his accuracy, and he has many variables to consider when determining the odds:

    -The teams' performances this season, in prior seasons, in last week's game, and against each other
    -The playing surface
    -Home field advantage
    -The weather forecast
    -Injuries, especially those of star players
    -Team morale
    -Events in the personal lives of the players

    Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

    Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.


    http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/sports-betting2.htm
  13. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Dec '12 20:23
    Originally posted by moon1969
    Your explanation makes sense, and kind of what I was thinking. I just wonder that ND is a national team with a national following, and there would be many bettting on ND. (I made money betting against ND long ago in the past when I used to do that sort of thing.) Alabama has a good coach and talent, but does no look quite as strong this year, though stil ...[text shortened]... taking the vig.[/quote]

    http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/sports-betting2.htm
    People don't bet randomly (at least most don't) they bet based on the types of factors enumerated. So when setting the opening line, the books try to anticipate how bettors are going to evaluate the game.

    After the first bets start coming in, the line will get adjusted based on where the money is going even if none of the factors mentioned change.
  14. Standard member sasquatch672
    Don't Like It Leave
    05 Dec '12 18:37
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I watched the game. I think ND is going to beat Alabama. The Tide's pass defense was quite weak and Saban coached like a fool (you really don't need to hold onto all three of your timeouts with 20 seconds left in the first half, Coach). Alabama is not going to run for 350 yards against the Irish defense. If ND doesn't turn the ball over 3+ times, they wi ...[text shortened]... the country)and Golson can exploit that secondary.

    Prediction: ND 24 Alabama 16
    I hope so. Golson's throwing motion is going to cost him dear one day. He does this fadeaway jump-throw far too often, and one day in a big game, he's going to get too much air under the ball. I don't know how that defense replaces Te'o next year either. Not sure if he'll beat out that freshman quarterback world beater, but he's the best defensive player to come along in several years.

    Alabama has strong Pittsburgh ties - their defensive coordinator last year was Sal Sunseri, who left this year to become Tennessee's defensive coordinator. Sal's son Vinnie is still at Alabama. Sal's brothers Jimmy and Nino run Sunseri's Market in the Strip District in Pittsburgh, and they're in there every Saturday morning. The inside scoop on Sunseri leaving is that he couldn't stand Saban anymore. Saban was paying him NFL money, but the breaking point came when the senior Sunseri was being inducted into Pittsburgh's Italian-American Hall of Fame. Sal wanted to fly home for 18 hours before last season and Saban wouldn't let him. Sal never forgave Saban.
  15. 07 Dec '12 23:01
    Originally posted by sasquatch672
    I hope so. Golson's throwing motion is going to cost him dear one day. He does this fadeaway jump-throw far too often, and one day in a big game, he's going to get too much air under the ball. I don't know how that defense replaces Te'o next year either. Not sure if he'll beat out that freshman quarterback world beater, but he's the best defensive p ...[text shortened]... 18 hours before last season and Saban wouldn't let him. Sal never forgave Saban.
    Saban's an a...hole and I really hope ND beats his team like a drum!