@sleepyguy saidReminds me of when they bring in replacement players when a players' union strikes.
As an adjunct of ABC News...
https://abcnews.go.com/538
Same name but not the same game.
@sleepyguy saidReminds me of when they bring in replacement players when a players' union strikes.
As an adjunct of ABC News...
https://abcnews.go.com/538
@spruce112358 said538 still exists?
"The poll aggregation and evaluation site 538, part of ABC News, dropped the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen Reports from inclusion in its polling averages and forecasts."
"The decision comes after months of consideration that broke into public view in June. At that point, G. Elliott Morris, ABC News’s editorial director of data analytics and 538 lead, presented Ras ...[text shortened]... the change this week."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/
@spruce112358 saidAnd you think that polling agencies such as Sienna, the WSJ and CBS don't know these things? You think they don't care about accuracy? They just want to sell their polls?
I'm not trying to be flippant. I'm just saying the missing data is intractable - even for the best statisticians.
You have to get an estimate of how the people who you FIRST chose randomly to call but refused to answer would have responded. There are ways, but they are complicated and expensive and most pollsters don't bother - they just call someone else.
News ser ...[text shortened]... w poll, regardless of the quality, so there is nothing in it for pollsters to make it more accurate.
@spruce112358 saidDismissing all polling data with one flippant wave based on your own theory is borderline childish. The people that run these polls have access to the same guesses about human nature you have and they do everything that they can to correct for them. Granted, some pollsters are biased and others are incompetent. But on the whole, polls tend to be pretty good predictors.
Well - here's the problem. Surveys are only of willing respondents.
I'm voting for Biden. And I'm not willing to answer those surveys! I've ignored 4 or 5 so far. I'm not interested - maybe I'm never going to be interested. Apparently Trump voters are more interested - fine.
That's the missing data problem they have.
And no, Biden doesn't have to cheat. He's alr ...[text shortened]... know Roger Stone is FEVERISH with plans of how to cheat, though. Let's see what he comes up with...
@sonhouse saidSorry you almost missed your flight, but when you've been victimized by literally thousands of terrorist attacks, you tend to be a bit more careful. We created the TSA after one terrorist attack and we still make people take off their shows because of one more such incident.
@the-grifter
Hey, when my rating gets to 3000 will you play me?🙂
I don't think putting them on a ship to Iran would work, I think execution would be more like it. Killing hundreds of kids at a music fest is unconscionable but what do I know. I am a musician and played folk festivals all over Israel and our friends were almost all fellow musicians, so that attack hit us al ...[text shortened]... t crack in our family, finally finding nothing, had to let us go and we damn near missed our flight.
@spruce112358 saidBut then he wouldn't be Trump. He'd be some other demagogue.
I have this discussion with my brother-in-law often - he agrees with you, Trump isn't good enough to pull it off, and so he doesn't take any threat seriously. But is that true of everyone who supports him?
Someone mentioned Trump is only the herald. What happens when a much younger, healthier 'Trump' with an even more refined message and a tighter organization appears?
Do you worry then?
@divegeester saidIt's hard to really have a basis for comparison of course, but I can't even fathom the hole in my life without my children, especially my oldest daughter and oldest son. I would be a completely different human being with different outlooks and different experiences and different dreams, aspirations and feelings.
I don’t have children, chose not to, can’t stand them tbh. I might have felt differently about my own, but looking at other people’s I am just relieved to not have them.
I look around at my wider family and everyone with kids is stressed out of their box, frantic with worry and financially strapped. Even in their thirties with their own kids they are still leaching of ...[text shortened]... s.
I’ve heard it said more than once “if I had my time over I wouldn’t have kids”.
Thoughts?
@spruce112358 saidThe casual dress at the office movement seems to have gained some momentum in the late 90's. Law firms and investment banks were chasing talent so hard that they needed to offer something without increasing the already skyrocketing salaries in a super-hot market. So, they let people dress down a little, and then a lot.
All right, let's get REALLY UPSET ABOUT THIS!!!
https://npr.org/2024/04/01/1241984004/ties-necktie-biden-obama-clinton-presidents-fashion
Of course, y'all are too young to remember 'Hatless Jack' Kennedy and how he changed the style of the nation by refusing to wear a hat. His reason: he thought hats made his ears stick out. But for years hatters chased the Preside ...[text shortened]... his head.
Kennedy killed hats! Bummer!
https://www.primermagazine.com/2021/learn/jfk-mens-hat
@spruce112358 saidTrump's age, health and lack of organizational skills also prevent me from taking this too seriously.
I think a big reason Trump's dictatorship-pantomime-charade attempt will fail is his age. Hitler was 43 when he came to power. Trump was 71, now 77. This baloney has to end soon.
The other big reason is that America isn't in the economic crisis Germany was in in 1933 - no comparison. True, rural America is stuck in a pretty miserable place. But it is only Biden who wi ...[text shortened]... stay "broken." Otherwise, he is doomed.
The third reason is, American Liberals also have guns. 🙂
@shallow-blue saidYeah, but they don't advertise it like we do.
Oh, they do. And the European equivalents of the Republicans are not happy about it, either. Hence Brexit. Which, by the way, did nothing to stop illegal immigration from Africa to the UK, but did cause a lot of legal Polish workers to come back to Europe.
@spruce112358 saidI used to be kind of like that. I've become more conservative since covid and the George Floyd riots when I saw plainly that government is incapable of nuance or principled decision-making and so needs to be confined to the things you mentioned (and maybe a few others).
Lol. I have not changed... or have I? The world has certainly changed around me.
I've been an Eisenhower Republican for most of my life. I was *very* involved in the Libertarian Party for awhile, but they fractured and then half of us left while the other half went full alt-right/burn it down.
I believe that government exists to protect all our rights equally. I do ...[text shortened]... who joins with Democrats on most things. Think Angus King. I don't have a political home at present.
@mchill saidCorporate price gouging? This has nothing to do with price gouging. It's about getting a higher class of service than you pay for due to government fiat.
How dare this President protect American citizens from corporate price gouging! ðŸ˜
@phranny saidI concur...
Republican president Ronald Reagan said: “We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people—our strength—from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation…. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and ...[text shortened]... ation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.”
@averagejoe1 saidAs I recall, Spruce is basically conservative in his political and economic philosophy, though could be mis-remembering or things could have changed.
They can get rich here. Nov 5 will, however, be the most impt election in history, given who this country is. Being unrecognizable if Biden wins, opportunities to grow will peter away. We must all be the same at the end of the day.
SH, tell your buddy Spruce that, while he was away, that no faerie lib on this site has ever commented on the many posts where I highlight ...[text shortened]... ce going to be shoulder to shoulder with? Maybe Shav would be a good fit. Don’t like workin’ much.