Originally posted by googlefudgeHowever, if you read my post, you would have seen that I state that it's impossible to know anything about reality with absolute certainty.
Yes, the probability required for something to be absolutely impossible is zero.
However, if you read my post, you would have seen that I state that it's impossible to know anything
about reality with absolute certainty. Thus all knowledge is probabilistic [has a value between 1 and 0]
and thus to know something is not true you do not need the pro ...[text shortened]... need to learn and become comfortable with Bayesian probability, which I don't expect you to do.
So you are not absolutely certain of your own existence? And you are not absolutely certain that it is infact you who are responding to my posts? Also, if you can't be absolutely sure about anything then you can't be absolutely sure about the the accuracy of Bayesian probability, which you seem to be promoting with absolute certainty? Could you use Bayesian probability to asses the probability of Bayesian probability being correct? 😀
By your own reasoning you cannot know for sure that Bayesian probability is reliable.
You don't know with absolute certainty what your date of birth is? You must be joking.
05 Jun 16
1 edit
Originally posted by googlefudgeCould you use your Bayesian probability to calculate the likelihood of abiogenesis (for example) being true? I would like a demonstration.
Yes, the probability required for something to be absolutely impossible is zero.
However, if you read my post, you would have seen that I state that it's impossible to know anything
about reality with absolute certainty. Thus all knowledge is probabilistic [has a value between 1 and 0]
and thus to know something is not true you do not need the pro ...[text shortened]... need to learn and become comfortable with Bayesian probability, which I don't expect you to do.
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07 Jun 16
Originally posted by FetchmyjunkThere is a difference between psychological certainty and epistemological certainty.
[b]However, if you read my post, you would have seen that I state that it's impossible to know anything about reality with absolute certainty.
So you are not absolutely certain of your own existence? And you are not absolutely certain that it is infact you who are responding to my posts? Also, if you can't be absolutely sure about anything then y ...[text shortened]... iable.
You don't know with absolute certainty what your date of birth is? You must be joking.[/b]
I can be psychologically certain about things for which I am not epistemologically certain...
It is epistemological certainty that I am talking about here.
So you are not absolutely certain of your own existence?
Nope. I am not absolutely certain I exist. [I am only certain that something exists].
And you are not absolutely certain that it is infact you who are responding to my posts?
Given that I am not certain I exist, I don't see how I could be certain that I am replying to your posts.
Also, if you can't be absolutely sure about anything then you can't be absolutely sure about the the accuracy of Bayesian probability, which you seem to be promoting with absolute certainty?
Well A) I am not promoting Bayesian probability with absolute certainty...
And B) Bayesian probability is a mathematical system and not a fact about reality, which would exclude it
from the list of things I stated you cannot know with absolute certainty.
Could you use Bayesian probability to asses the probability of Bayesian probability being correct?
No, that would be circular. What you can do is prove mathematically that the equation does what it is supposed to
and then test the results against reality to see if it is effective. And indeed it is so effective that many of the breakthroughs
using it during WWII were [until recently if at all] classified.
By your own reasoning you cannot know for sure that Bayesian probability is reliable.
That is not true, and you have not demonstrated that. You mistakenly imply that without absolute certainty you cannot
know anything at all. Which is clearly false.
You don't know with absolute certainty what your date of birth is? You must be joking.
I am not joking, and again the answer is no... Although I would point out that there are many people today
and throughout history who wouldn't just lack absolute certainty [in the epistemological sense] in their
date of birth, but would not have even known which year they were born, let alone the exact date.
Which makes the final thing you end on to claim that I must be joking rather bizarre.
All this makes me wonder... Have you heard of "The problem of Hard Solipsism"?
12 Jun 16
2 edits
Originally posted by googlefudgeNope. I am not absolutely certain I exist.
There is a difference between psychological certainty and epistemological certainty.
I can be psychologically certain about things for which I am not epistemologically certain...
It is epistemological certainty that I am talking about here.
So you are not absolutely certain of your own existence?
Nope. I am not absolutely certain I ...[text shortened]... her bizarre.
All this makes me wonder... Have you heard of "The problem of Hard Solipsism"?
But can you be? Or do you reject the possibility that there could be evidence that could give you absolute certainty of your own existence?
Given that I am not certain I exist, I don't see how I could be certain that I am replying to your posts.
Then who might I say is replying to my posts? A figment of your imagination?