Originally posted by sonhouse
North Korea has SOME nukes but not enough to deter China if a real war broke out, for one thing, only a couple of DPRK nuke tests actually worked so the bombs they would send out in a missile would have a good chance of fizzling before it reached it's intended target.
My guess (and admittedly just a guess) China doesn't want war with DPRK based more on eco ...[text shortened]... , all the surrounding countries would probably see cancer rates go up even if not hit by a nuke.
Sonhouse seems to have misunderstood my point.
Why would *any* country *want war* against the DPRK (North Korea)?
It's not a matter of about that country being powerful enough to 'win'.
It's a matter of that 'victory' not nearly being worth its cost.
What could China hope to gain by invading the DPRK? Even if China were to occupy
all North Korea, the Chinese don't want the responsibility of feeding and taking care of a
destitute large population. Indeed, even the ROK (North Korea's south Korean brothers)
does *not* want that *immediate* responsibility. The ROK wants *gradual reunification*
with the DPRK. The ROK does *not* want the DPRK"s economy to collapse completely
so that the ROK would have to take care of tens of millions of North Koreans. It's too costly.
If China angered the DPRK's leader enough, I don't expect that he would have the DPRK
resort to nuclear weapons or engage in large-scale conventional warfare at all against China.
But the DPRK has large special forces, trained in sabotage and subversion. The DPRK
could attempt to retaliate through unconventional warfare, including 'terrorist' actions.
It would cost China much to have to defend against such possibilities.
The Western media describe China as the DPRK's only ally. But it's an 'alliance' that
comes from political expediency or necessity, *not* from any deep love or trust.
China regards the DPRK as like an irritating nephew who does not listen to its advice
and keeps getting into trouble. So it keeps attempting to help its nephew (by giving money)
and hoping that he will see the error of his ways and change rather than writing him off.
China gives economic aid to the DPRK not so much because it supports what the DPRK's doing
(such as developing missiles) but because it's afraid of the consequences if the DPRK
becomes too desperate. Their relationship seems rather like an adult who feels trapped
in having to look after a needy teenage relative with a serious drug habit who already
has had 'brushes with the law'.