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Debates Forum

  1. 19 Jan '12 14:31 / 1 edit
    He is gonna announce today at 11pm est. that he is dropping his White House bid. (FOXNews) And will back Newt Gingrich.

    Al I have to say to Rick is, it's about time !

    That leaves 3. Any predictions ?
  2. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    19 Jan '12 14:50
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    He is gonna announce today at 11pm est. that he is dropping his White House bid. (FOXNews) And will back Newt Gingrich.

    Al I have to say to Rick is, it's about time !

    That leaves 3. Any predictions ?
    Yes. Romney will win the nom regardless of what happens in SC.
  3. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Jan '12 15:11
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    He is gonna announce today at 11pm est. that he is dropping his White House bid. (FOXNews) And will back Newt Gingrich.

    Al I have to say to Rick is, it's about time !

    That leaves 3. Any predictions ?
    I still count 4, uther: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.
  4. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    19 Jan '12 15:12 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    He is gonna announce today at 11pm est. that he is dropping his White House bid. (FOXNews) And will back Newt Gingrich.

    Al I have to say to Rick is, it's about time !

    That leaves 3. Any predictions ?
    Four, not three. Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum.

    My prediction is that ALL the knives come out now, and that sh76 is probably right.

    Edit: no1 beat me to it.
  5. 19 Jan '12 15:17
    My mistake. I forgot about Paul. He will be next to fall out.

    Also, the Iowa caucus is now saying that Santorum actually had 34 more votes than Romney. Actually giving him the win but they are calling it a tie.

    Therefore, Romney may not be the sure favorite to take it all after all .
  6. 19 Jan '12 15:18
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I still count 4, uther: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.
    Paul? Paul who?
  7. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Jan '12 15:29
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    My mistake. I forgot about Paul. He will be next to fall out.

    Also, the Iowa caucus is now saying that Santorum actually had 34 more votes than Romney. Actually giving him the win but they are calling it a tie.

    Therefore, Romney may not be the sure favorite to take it all after all .
    The chances of Paul dropping out are remote. In 2008, he stayed in until June and his campaign didn't garner anywhere near the support that year as he has in 2012. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all the way to the convention.
  8. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    19 Jan '12 15:32 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    My mistake. I forgot about Paul. He will be next to fall out.

    Also, the Iowa caucus is now saying that Santorum actually had 34 more votes than Romney. Actually giving him the win but they are calling it a tie.

    Therefore, Romney may not be the sure favorite to take it all after all .
    I doubt Paul will drop out. He's on a mission to drag the GOP as far toward his brand of Libertarianism as possible. Santorum will be next I think, splitting the anyone-but-Romney vote between Gingrich and Paul.

    Edit: no1 beat me to it again, dammit.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    19 Jan '12 15:33
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    My mistake. I forgot about Paul. He will be next to fall out.

    Also, the Iowa caucus is now saying that Santorum actually had 34 more votes than Romney. Actually giving him the win but they are calling it a tie.

    Therefore, Romney may not be the sure favorite to take it all after all .
    Whether Santorum won Iowa by 34 votes or lost is by 8 is hardly determinative.

    That Romney is even competitive in SC is bad news for Gingrich. If there's one early state that Gingrich should blow Romney out of the water, it's SC. Even if he loses SC, Romney seems poised to do well in FL and as the race drags out, Mitt's money and organizational advantage and Gingrich's baggage seems like it will be too much for him to overcome.
  10. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Jan '12 15:37
    Nate Silver's article The Myth of Anybody but Romney makes some interesting points:

    If you look beyond the top-line data in the polls, it becomes clear that nowhere near 75 percent of Republican voters have been vehemently opposed to nominating Mr. Romney. A Gallup poll conducted before New Hampshire’s primary, for instance, found that only about 30 percent of Republican voters considered Mr. Romney an unacceptable nominee. These numbers have bounced around a bit from time to time and from survey to survey, but these results are fairly typical when questions like these are put to the voters.

    What you really have, then, is something like this: about 25 percent of Republican voters are in Mr. Romney’s base (incidentally, about 22 percent of Republicans nationwide voted for Mr. Romney in their party’s primaries in 2008). And about 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate is truly opposed to him.

    That leaves a swing group of about 45 percent of the vote. These voters can certainly imagine candidates that they’d prefer to Mr. Romney — but they also consider him an acceptable choice, more or less.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/the-myth-of-anybody-but-romney/
  11. 19 Jan '12 15:39
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    The chances of Paul dropping out are remote. In 2008, he stayed in until June and his campaign didn't garner anywhere near the support that year as he has in 2012. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all the way to the convention.
    I think the news with the Iowa caucus for Santorum, Romneys mishandling and stammering over the "show us your tax form" thing, Perry and Palin endorsing Newt, and Pauls less than stellar performance in the last debate, its a pretty even playing field.

    BTW, abc is showing a interview tonight with Newts very vindictive x-wife. This may or may not hurt him.
  12. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Jan '12 15:54
    Originally posted by sh76
    Whether Santorum won Iowa by 34 votes or lost is by 8 is hardly determinative.

    That Romney is even competitive in SC is bad news for Gingrich. If there's one early state that Gingrich should blow Romney out of the water, it's SC. Even if he loses SC, Romney seems poised to do well in FL and as the race drags out, Mitt's money and organizational advantage and Gingrich's baggage seems like it will be too much for him to overcome.
    I kinda think that Romney losing NOW in South Carolina will be more damaging than you believe. After all, after Iowa and New Hampshire he was up by double digits there and looked to be on his way to wrapping up the nomination early. If Gingrich bounces back and beats him, that will give Newt a lot of momentum and Florida is 10 days away - an eternity in this race.
  13. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    19 Jan '12 16:19
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    I kinda think that Romney losing NOW in South Carolina will be more damaging than you believe. After all, after Iowa and New Hampshire he was up by double digits there and looked to be on his way to wrapping up the nomination early. If Gingrich bounces back and beats him, that will give Newt a lot of momentum and Florida is 10 days away - an eternity in this race.
    Hey. I'm engaging in wishful thinking.

    Humor me.
  14. 19 Jan '12 16:23
    Originally posted by sh76
    Hey. I'm engaging in wishful thinking.

    Humor me.
    You don't like Newt sh76 ?
  15. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    19 Jan '12 16:50
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    You don't like Newt sh76 ?
    I like him as a historian and an interviewee.

    As President of the United States? Not so much.