rating calculation question.

I see in the FAQ if I play a provisional player, I only gain or lose half the points of a non-provisional. I just got a challange by someone who has no results yet, so has a p1200 rating. However, he has 68 odd games going and it seems it won't be long till 20 games are up and he ends up with a non provisional rating. So how do you calculate what my score would be, win, lose, draw, if now he is rated p1200 and then say, in two weeks he is all of a sudden 1600 after 21 games?
Presumably I would be scored on how he is when our game is concluded? If so I would have no idea of what our possible outcome would be, as opposed to playing a non-provisional with a stable rating.

Originally posted by sonhouse
I see in the FAQ if I play a provisional player, I only gain or lose half the points of a non-provisional. I just got a challange by someone who has no results yet, so has a p1200 rating. However, he has 68 odd games going and it seems it won't be long till 20 games are up and he ends up with a non provisional rating. So how do you calculate what my score w ...[text shortened]... at our possible outcome would be, as opposed to playing a non-provisional with a stable rating.

The rating will indeed be calculated at the end of the game and there is no way to tell what his rating will be at that point. By that time it is unlikely that he will still be provisional so the full amount will be won/lost. in other words ... its impossible to tell what change it will make to your rating.

Originally posted by sonhouse
I see in the FAQ if I play a provisional player, I only gain or lose half the points of a non-provisional. I just got a challange by someone who has no results yet, so has a p1200 rating. However, he has 68 odd games going and it seems it won't be long till 20 games are up and he ends up with a non provisional rating. So how do you calculate what my score w ...[text shortened]... at our possible outcome would be, as opposed to playing a non-provisional with a stable rating.

You can't.

You play anyone on here and you can't be certain of their rating.

If they mass timeout they could go from 1900 to 800 and you get basically nothign for a win and if you lose you can start crying about the rating points you will lose for that game.

Because of the way the ratings are calculated here you have no way in telling so take your chances, provisional or non-provisional, it doesn't matter in the end.

Originally posted by RahimK
You can't.

You play anyone on here and you can't be certain of their rating.

If they mass timeout they could go from 1900 to 800 and you get basically nothign for a win and if you lose you can start crying about the rating points you will lose for that game.

Because of the way the ratings are calculated here you have no way in telling so take your chances, provisional or non-provisional, it doesn't matter in the end.

Yes I agree but the provisional player with no games completed has to be at the top of the undertain list. Statistically, I have played a couple hundred games and only one game happened where the rating changed drastically, in this case it helped me because I was in a losing game against him and was debated when to resign. Then he had a bunch of timeouts and went up over 100 points in one day! So I resigned instantly, lost a lot less points that way! But if I play a provisional with no completed games I am surely gambling with the rating because he could be really a couple of hundred points higher strength than me and I would only find out the hard way when he gets his 20th game in and he is still a 1500 player for instance, then I get screwed for points. So the gist is don't play provisionals who challange you when they don't even have a completed game to show how they play.

Originally posted by sonhouse
... But if I play a provisional with no completed games I am surely gambling with the rating because he could be really a couple of hundred points higher strength than me and I would only find out the hard way when he gets his 20th game in and he is still a 1500 player for instance, then I get screwed for points. So the gist is don't play provisionals who challange you when they don't even have a completed game to show how they play.

he'll be very close to his final rating once he completes his provisional games. if that'll be much higher than you, you had little chance to begin with, but won't lose much. if he'll be lower rated than you, you should win anyway. - although he might not be exactly in his final rating, he'll be close enough for practical purposes. a 100 pts difference makes only for about 4 points either way, so it doesn't really matter much if he'll be a bit underrated.