Carnival Game

In a carnival game, there is a bag that contains 1 yellow marble, 5 blue marbles, and an unknown number of red marbles.

When you play, you first draw one marble from the bag, then put it back, and then draw two marbles at the same time. If all the three marbles happen to be the same color, you win a toy bear.

While Ted is waiting in line for the game, he only sees that about 16% of the people win a toy bear.

When he gets up to the stand, the attendant offers him a new game. If he correctly guesses the number of red marbles in the bag, he gets all the remaining toy bears.

What would be Ted's best guess for the number of red marbles?

@joe-shmo

I would go with 4, think it's fairly close between it and 5!

He must have waited in a long queue to reach the 16% with any certainty!

@blood-on-the-tracks said
@joe-shmo

I would go with 4, think it's fairly close between it and 5!

He must have waited in a long queue to reach the 16% with any certainty!