Originally posted by bobbob1056th
i know there are many extremely unique things like this that happen all the time, but i still think its rather interesting (this is a true story):
the other day, my day ran over a bird with his car. the next day a fire truck came to his house (my sister made a large fire in the backyard).
both are very unlikely to happen to an individual, let alo ...[text shortened]... nybody disagree with estimates? or have any other extremely unlikely things that have happened?
Well, first off, I think your estimates are a bit off. I know someone who's hit a bird with their car, and fires happen all of the time. I'm sure those are a bit low.
But regardless, there is something somewhat flawed about you reasoning. Yes, the probability of hitting a bird, then having a fire truck come to your house, is giggle-piggly*10^-grasshopper. But the probability of two slightly strange events occuring on consecutive days is not unlikely at all. There are so many events that people would consider strange, that some unlikely event is actually quite likely to happen. People don't notice all of the strange events that don't happen, only the ones that do. So you didn't say, my dad didn't get abducted by aliens, and my sister didn't start a cult, or etc. And there are millions upon millions of these types of events.
Ok, now addressing the consecutive days issue. Wouldn't you have also surprised if both of those events occured on the same day? Or the same day next week, or the same day next year? There are many times that those two events could've occured that you'd consider strange. And, as I said before, if you're not specifying which strange events before hand, it's quite likely that something strange will happen. So, I'm not at all surprised to hear of these events.