The second round is well underway, but sadly with quite a few players missing, and more of those rather pointless mass resignations. If you've got this far, why not give it a full go?
Group 1: Ironman31 is taking this tourny seriously having already racked up 8 from 8. He is followed by cludi with 5/5. Sadly, Bighea... er Trackhead21 has failed to turn up.
Group2: In his Name, Duhian & Hushpuppy all sadly missing-in-action. ggoulam, strangely, resigned almost all his games as black... should try eating more carrots. That leaves only two significant results so far, draws between group favourite David Tebb and his nearest rival, Northern Lad. My own campaign is on the rocks here. I'm out of my depth, being substantially behind in several games and not much to smile about in any of the others.
Group3: awrightus with 6/6, and tequilla and Gaurav V both with 5/5 have set the pace. harrinpj resigned all his games. SteveC is missing in action. And strangely, Baca, the clear group favourite, has not played a single move so far, although he does seem to be active in his other games.
Originally posted by Gatecrasherperhaps baca is contemplating resigning before the games get so far in that points will be lost ... and yet, with 60 days timebank - still keeping the option open to play ... i know what awrightus and tequila must be hoping!
...And strangely, Baca, the clear group favourite, has not played a single move so far, although he does seem to be active in his other games.
-mind you, having a look at:
mistsplicer's unbeaten record
and
awrightus v kingcaptured
and
awrightus v ironman31
baca may not find the going so easy even if he does move some pieces!
Originally posted by flexmoreAh right, I see the logic now. Quite devious, really. But much better if he just played. Hope he does.
perhaps baca is contemplating resigning before the games get so far in that points will be lost ... and yet, with 60 days timebank - still keeping the option open to play
the second round is now well underway .... Tournament 414
in group1:
ironman31 2484 has finished all his games against the lowest rated opponents in his group, winning them all of course - but not yet finished 8 games against the top 4 competitors.
this may make those competitors find hope - but do notice that all these top 4 competitors have all suffered draws or losses already.
so we can expect ironman31 to breeze through.
group 2
Perrys 2168 and ThePO, previously 2398, both have perfect scores so far - but many games still to play.
Northern Lad 2241 has perfect scores except against David Tebb 2307 where he has drawn twice .... this is critical ... no matter what Tebb does now, he can not force Northern Lad out.
David Tebb has drawn against Northern Lad as already said - that should not hurt too much ... but ... Dave has drawn and lost two games against comparitively low rated players ... these games could cost Tebb a ticket to the next round.
all in all i think it is clearly a very close contest between Northern Lad, David Tebb, Perrys and ThePO, and given the results so far Northern Lad seems to be looking slightly the most likely.
group 3
a three way tussle between awrightus 2087, Tequila 2054, and mistsplicer 2003.
all three have perfect scores against all other players - but Tequila has lost a game to awrightus.
so we can probably focus in on awrightus and mistsplicer.
mistsplicer has never lost a game - and only drawn one game!!!!!
remember awrightus has drawn against ironman31, and has held very well against kingcaptured 2273 (two draws and one win each), but:
mistsplicer looks very very strong.
of course, in a week or two enough results should be in to clarify further.
Tournament 414
it would seem group 3 is now resolved to a level of reasonable speculation,
Game 1185414
so it seems that most likely the third round is:
the winners(s) of group 2 ... David Tebb, Northern Lad, ThePO or Perrys ...
playing against Ironman31 and mistsplicer,
Originally posted by Gatecrasherhey - you got me looking - you are actually in a better situation than Northern Lad:
Yup, Group 2 is biatch. 😞
with a win againbst Tebb and a loss to him you have 3 points from Tebb ... and Tebb can no longer do you any more damage!
so Group two has:
David Tebb, Northern Lad, ThePO, Perrys, and Gatecrasher ...all in with very real opportunities.
sorry for the mistake - and good luck!
group 1 has now become slightly more interesting - ironman has shown his vulnerable side and drawn some games as black ... technically speaking there are other players with a chance, especially Quirine and FernandoJPVasquez - but history shows their chance is miniscule.
group 2 seems to have lost its favourite - tebb has not dominated the other players as was needed, this group now has just three players left in with genuine hopes: Northern Lad, ThePO and Gatecrasher
group 3 shows the fertile growth of mistsplicer still no losses and just one draw.( as an aside ... mistsplicer's draw Game 921321 was against ed bernheim - rhp's most drawing player)
Originally posted by flexmoreAs a participant in Group 2 I don't want to say too much, but I can't agree with flexmore's assessment. I think one would have to say that objectively Dave Tebb is still in pole position in view of the fact that he has the points on the board. He has only one game left - against The PO, the result of which could be critical. The rest of the realistic challengers (ThePO, Perrys, Gatecrasher and myself) have a lot of games still to finish, many of them hard contests among themselves, where it's not unreasonable to expect a number of draws. For each draw, of course, two points are lost.
group 1 has now become slightly more interesting - [b]ironman has shown his vulnerable side and drawn some games as black ... technically speaking there are other players with a chance, especially Quirine and FernandoJPVasquez - but history shows their chance is miniscule.
group 2 seems to have lost its favourite - tebb has not dominated the other pl ...[text shortened]... ... mistsplicer's draw Game 921321 was against ed bernheim - rhp's most drawing player)[/b]
Originally posted by Northern LadI agree. Dave Tebb has been written off too soon. If all remaining games were drawn, Dave would win.
As a participant in Group 2 I don't want to say too much, but I can't agree with flexmore's assessment. I think one would have to say that objectively Dave Tebb is still in pole position in view of the fact that he has the points on ...[text shortened]... a number of draws. For each draw, of course, two points are lost.
Assuming Dave draws his last match and finishes on 55 points, those who can statistically go into the final need to get at least X points from Y games:
Gatecrasher (41): 14 from 7
Northern Lad (36): 19 from 10
Perrys (36): 19 from 8
cbd (33) : 22 from 11
ThePO (31): 24 from 13
Rosaline (30): 25 from 9
With so many of hard-fought games outstanding, these are all very tough targets.
Originally posted by Gatecrasherto get 55 points, player P requires an average of A points per game remaining:
I agree. Dave Tebb has been written off too soon. If all remaining games were drawn, Dave would win.
Assuming Dave draws his last match and finishes on 55 points, those who can statistically go into the final need to get at least X ...[text shortened]... f hard-fought games outstanding, these are all very tough targets.
ThePO : 1.85
Northern Lad : 1.9
Gatecrasher : 2
cbd : 2
Perrys : 2.375
Rosaline : 2.8
exy 3.3
to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
ThePO : 2.08
Northern Lad : 2.2
Gatecrasher : 2.4
cbd : 2.27
as you say they are all tough targets ... but one persons's failure to achieve target is another's success.
Originally posted by flexmoreHow is exy supposed to manage 3.3 points per game?
to get 55 points, player P requires an average of A points per game remaining:
ThePO : 1.85
Northern Lad : 1.9
Gatecrasher : 2
cbd : 2
Perrys : 2.375
Rosaline : 2.8
exy 3.3
to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
ThePO : 2.08
Northern Lad : 2.2
Gatecrasher : 2.4
cbd : 2.27
as you say they are all tough targets ... but one persons's failure to achieve target is another's success.
Originally posted by flexmoreDavid Tebb finished on 57 points:
to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
ThePO : 2.08
Northern Lad : 2.2
Gatecrasher : 2.4
cbd : 2.27
To get 58 points:
ThePO: 17 from 8, or 2.13pts per game.
Northern Lad: 14 from 6, or 2.33pts per game.
Perrys: 16 from 6, or 2.67pts per game.
I'm now out of it - way too many draws in my remaining games. I figure a lot of the remaining games are going to be draws too.
David Tebb must surely be favourite to progress, with ThePO still having an outside chance. I think the ask is just too great for Northern Lad and Perrys...
Interesting situations in the other groups, too: In Group 1: Ironman31 has had many draws, giving Quirine and fernando JP Vasquez outside chances to progress. In Group 3: mistsplicer is almost there, but Tequila is still in with a shout.
mistsplicer is unbeaten at RHP. David Tebb is the giant killer. Ironman31 is RHP's top ranked player. If these three make it, it could make for an interesting final...
Originally posted by GatecrasherI beg to differ about Ironman31. He needs one more win to secure qualification and that is almost certainly going to come via timeout from his game with webreaper who left the site mid-july.
David Tebb finished on 57 points:
To get 58 points:
ThePO: 17 from 8, or 2.13pts per game.
Northern Lad: 14 from 6, or 2.33pts per game.
Perrys: 16 from 6, or 2.67pts per game.
I'm now out of it - way too many draws in my remaining games. I figure a lot of the remaining games are going to be draws too.
David Tebb must surely be favourit ...[text shortened]... 1 is RHP's top ranked player. If these three make it, it could make for an interesting final...