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  1. Standard member Gatecrasher
    Whale watching
    19 Jun '05 23:34
    The second round is well underway, but sadly with quite a few players missing, and more of those rather pointless mass resignations. If you've got this far, why not give it a full go?

    Group 1: Ironman31 is taking this tourny seriously having already racked up 8 from 8. He is followed by cludi with 5/5. Sadly, Bighea... er Trackhead21 has failed to turn up.

    Group2: In his Name, Duhian & Hushpuppy all sadly missing-in-action. ggoulam, strangely, resigned almost all his games as black... should try eating more carrots. That leaves only two significant results so far, draws between group favourite David Tebb and his nearest rival, Northern Lad. My own campaign is on the rocks here. I'm out of my depth, being substantially behind in several games and not much to smile about in any of the others.

    Group3: awrightus with 6/6, and tequilla and Gaurav V both with 5/5 have set the pace. harrinpj resigned all his games. SteveC is missing in action. And strangely, Baca, the clear group favourite, has not played a single move so far, although he does seem to be active in his other games.
  2. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    20 Jun '05 09:53 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Gatecrasher
    ...And strangely, Baca, the clear group favourite, has not played a single move so far, although he does seem to be active in his other games.
    perhaps baca is contemplating resigning before the games get so far in that points will be lost ... and yet, with 60 days timebank - still keeping the option open to play ... i know what awrightus and tequila must be hoping!
    -mind you, having a look at:
    mistsplicer's unbeaten record
    and
    awrightus v kingcaptured
    and
    awrightus v ironman31

    baca may not find the going so easy even if he does move some pieces!
  3. Standard member Gatecrasher
    Whale watching
    20 Jun '05 14:04
    Originally posted by flexmore
    perhaps baca is contemplating resigning before the games get so far in that points will be lost ... and yet, with 60 days timebank - still keeping the option open to play
    Ah right, I see the logic now. Quite devious, really. But much better if he just played. Hope he does.
  4. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    18 Jul '05 10:13 / 1 edit
    the second round is now well underway .... Tournament 414

    in group1:

    ironman31 2484 has finished all his games against the lowest rated opponents in his group, winning them all of course - but not yet finished 8 games against the top 4 competitors.
    this may make those competitors find hope - but do notice that all these top 4 competitors have all suffered draws or losses already.

    so we can expect ironman31 to breeze through.

    group 2
    Perrys 2168 and ThePO, previously 2398, both have perfect scores so far - but many games still to play.
    Northern Lad 2241 has perfect scores except against David Tebb 2307 where he has drawn twice .... this is critical ... no matter what Tebb does now, he can not force Northern Lad out.
    David Tebb has drawn against Northern Lad as already said - that should not hurt too much ... but ... Dave has drawn and lost two games against comparitively low rated players ... these games could cost Tebb a ticket to the next round.
    all in all i think it is clearly a very close contest between Northern Lad, David Tebb, Perrys and ThePO, and given the results so far Northern Lad seems to be looking slightly the most likely.

    group 3
    a three way tussle between awrightus 2087, Tequila 2054, and mistsplicer 2003.
    all three have perfect scores against all other players - but Tequila has lost a game to awrightus.
    so we can probably focus in on awrightus and mistsplicer.
    mistsplicer has never lost a game - and only drawn one game!!!!!
    remember awrightus has drawn against ironman31, and has held very well against kingcaptured 2273 (two draws and one win each), but:
    mistsplicer looks very very strong.

    of course, in a week or two enough results should be in to clarify further.

    Tournament 414
  5. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    19 Jul '05 10:13
    it would seem group 3 is now resolved to a level of reasonable speculation,

    Game 1185414

    so it seems that most likely the third round is:

    the winners(s) of group 2 ... David Tebb, Northern Lad, ThePO or Perrys ...

    playing against Ironman31 and mistsplicer,
  6. Standard member Gatecrasher
    Whale watching
    19 Jul '05 15:39
    Originally posted by flexmore

    the winners(s) of group 2 ... David Tebb, Northern Lad, ThePO or Perrys ...
    Yup, Group 2 is biatch. 😞
  7. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    20 Jul '05 08:49
    Originally posted by Gatecrasher
    Yup, Group 2 is biatch. 😞
    hey - you got me looking - you are actually in a better situation than Northern Lad:

    with a win againbst Tebb and a loss to him you have 3 points from Tebb ... and Tebb can no longer do you any more damage!

    so Group two has:

    David Tebb, Northern Lad, ThePO, Perrys, and Gatecrasher ...all in with very real opportunities.

    sorry for the mistake - and good luck!
  8. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    01 Aug '05 11:16 / 3 edits
    group 1 has now become slightly more interesting - ironman has shown his vulnerable side and drawn some games as black ... technically speaking there are other players with a chance, especially Quirine and FernandoJPVasquez - but history shows their chance is miniscule.

    group 2 seems to have lost its favourite - tebb has not dominated the other players as was needed, this group now has just three players left in with genuine hopes: Northern Lad, ThePO and Gatecrasher

    group 3 shows the fertile growth of mistsplicer still no losses and just one draw.( as an aside ... mistsplicer's draw Game 921321 was against ed bernheim - rhp's most drawing player)
  9. 05 Aug '05 21:05
    Originally posted by flexmore
    group 1 has now become slightly more interesting - [b]ironman has shown his vulnerable side and drawn some games as black ... technically speaking there are other players with a chance, especially Quirine and FernandoJPVasquez - but history shows their chance is miniscule.

    group 2 seems to have lost its favourite - tebb has not dominated the other pl ...[text shortened]... ... mistsplicer's draw Game 921321 was against ed bernheim - rhp's most drawing player)[/b]
    As a participant in Group 2 I don't want to say too much, but I can't agree with flexmore's assessment. I think one would have to say that objectively Dave Tebb is still in pole position in view of the fact that he has the points on the board. He has only one game left - against The PO, the result of which could be critical. The rest of the realistic challengers (ThePO, Perrys, Gatecrasher and myself) have a lot of games still to finish, many of them hard contests among themselves, where it's not unreasonable to expect a number of draws. For each draw, of course, two points are lost.
  10. Standard member Gatecrasher
    Whale watching
    05 Aug '05 23:10 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by Northern Lad
    As a participant in Group 2 I don't want to say too much, but I can't agree with flexmore's assessment. I think one would have to say that objectively Dave Tebb is still in pole position in view of the fact that he has the points on ...[text shortened]... a number of draws. For each draw, of course, two points are lost.
    I agree. Dave Tebb has been written off too soon. If all remaining games were drawn, Dave would win.

    Assuming Dave draws his last match and finishes on 55 points, those who can statistically go into the final need to get at least X points from Y games:

    Gatecrasher (41): 14 from 7
    Northern Lad (36): 19 from 10
    Perrys (36): 19 from 8
    cbd (33) : 22 from 11
    ThePO (31): 24 from 13
    Rosaline (30): 25 from 9

    With so many of hard-fought games outstanding, these are all very tough targets.
  11. Standard member flexmore
    Quack Quack Quack !
    06 Aug '05 10:56 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by Gatecrasher
    I agree. Dave Tebb has been written off too soon. If all remaining games were drawn, Dave would win.

    Assuming Dave draws his last match and finishes on 55 points, those who can statistically go into the final need to get at least X ...[text shortened]... f hard-fought games outstanding, these are all very tough targets.
    to get 55 points, player P requires an average of A points per game remaining:
    ThePO : 1.85
    Northern Lad : 1.9
    Gatecrasher : 2
    cbd : 2
    Perrys : 2.375
    Rosaline : 2.8
    exy 3.3

    to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
    ThePO : 2.08
    Northern Lad : 2.2
    Gatecrasher : 2.4
    cbd : 2.27

    as you say they are all tough targets ... but one persons's failure to achieve target is another's success.
  12. Standard member XanthosNZ
    Cancerous Bus Crash
    07 Aug '05 09:33
    Originally posted by flexmore
    to get 55 points, player P requires an average of A points per game remaining:
    ThePO : 1.85
    Northern Lad : 1.9
    Gatecrasher : 2
    cbd : 2
    Perrys : 2.375
    Rosaline : 2.8
    exy 3.3

    to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
    ThePO : 2.08
    Northern Lad : 2.2
    Gatecrasher : 2.4
    cbd : 2.27

    as you say they are all tough targets ... but one persons's failure to achieve target is another's success.
    How is exy supposed to manage 3.3 points per game?
  13. Standard member Freddie2008
    9 Edits
    07 Aug '05 12:25
    Originally posted by XanthosNZ
    How is exy supposed to manage 3.3 points per game?
    I was going to point that out...stop stealing my limelight!
  14. Standard member Gatecrasher
    Whale watching
    17 Aug '05 22:43
    Originally posted by flexmore

    to get 58 points, forcing tebb out:
    ThePO : 2.08
    Northern Lad : 2.2
    Gatecrasher : 2.4
    cbd : 2.27
    David Tebb finished on 57 points:

    To get 58 points:

    ThePO: 17 from 8, or 2.13pts per game.
    Northern Lad: 14 from 6, or 2.33pts per game.
    Perrys: 16 from 6, or 2.67pts per game.

    I'm now out of it - way too many draws in my remaining games. I figure a lot of the remaining games are going to be draws too.

    David Tebb must surely be favourite to progress, with ThePO still having an outside chance. I think the ask is just too great for Northern Lad and Perrys...

    Interesting situations in the other groups, too: In Group 1: Ironman31 has had many draws, giving Quirine and fernando JP Vasquez outside chances to progress. In Group 3: mistsplicer is almost there, but Tequila is still in with a shout.

    mistsplicer is unbeaten at RHP. David Tebb is the giant killer. Ironman31 is RHP's top ranked player. If these three make it, it could make for an interesting final...
  15. Standard member Freddie2008
    9 Edits
    17 Aug '05 23:44
    Originally posted by Gatecrasher
    David Tebb finished on 57 points:

    To get 58 points:

    ThePO: 17 from 8, or 2.13pts per game.
    Northern Lad: 14 from 6, or 2.33pts per game.
    Perrys: 16 from 6, or 2.67pts per game.

    I'm now out of it - way too many draws in my remaining games. I figure a lot of the remaining games are going to be draws too.

    David Tebb must surely be favourit ...[text shortened]... 1 is RHP's top ranked player. If these three make it, it could make for an interesting final...
    I beg to differ about Ironman31. He needs one more win to secure qualification and that is almost certainly going to come via timeout from his game with webreaper who left the site mid-july.