Hello all, and welcome to Hikaru Junction,
the only chess blog on the internet whose author produced the startlingly insightful commentary “I think most likely [to win] is Aronian, for experience, consistency, and his recent superb form…Caruana is one of the stronger contenders, but he doesn't seem to play as aggressively, which I think will hurt him.” (
Thread 176208)
As I’m sure you know, Aronian then proceeded to make me look like a fool by scoring 4.5/14, and Caruana doubled Aronian’s score to win the tournament.
In this handy-dandy graph I made, Aronian is the line far below everyone else’s.
( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1knv9zXXCugU88n9FFmyoF3RLH23empmCTo5Gi-nQP3w/edit#gid=0 , for anyone interested)
Let’s try and find out why Aronian did so poorly. (I’m not going to radar graph his performance, as I want to publish this blog in a timely manner. [7/31/2018– this did not happen.] From a look at his games, I suspect that he would look just as bad there as his results indicated, but I’ll do it if there’s enough demand.)
Levon Aronian–Ding Liren Candidates 2018 Rd. 1
1. c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 e6 3. e4 {Aronian aims to make d5, one of Black’s common retaliations, more difficult.} d5 {Black plays it anyway.} 4. e5 {White is a tempo up in the following exchange, allowing him to recapture first.} d4 5. exf6 dxc3 6. bxc3 Qxf6 7. d4 {Although the pawn structure had initially looked unappealing, the doubled c-pawns in fact control a lot of useful squares (for instance, the d-pawn is free from attack, which wouldn't be the case otherwise,) which makes up for any weakness.} b6 8. h4 Bb7 {h6 instead wouldn’t have stopped the threat, as 9. Bg5 hxg5 10. hxg5 wins material for White.} 9. Bg5 Qf5 {Black’s only move. If 9…Qg6 is played instead, 10. Bd3 forces Black into either Be4 (11. h5 Qxg5 12. Bxe4 c6 13. Qa4) or f5 (11. Be2 Qf7 12. Nf3, with White obviously better due to initiative and pawn structure.)} 10. Bd3 Qa5 11. Kf1 {Black's threat to take the pawn only allows White to develop with 12. Ne2 as long as there’s no check.} Nc6 12. Rb1 f6 13. Bd2 0-0-0 14. a4 e5 15. c5 Bxc5 {Black exploits the pin on the d-pawn. However, White now can create a threat by moving of protecting the bishop} 16. Rb5 Qa6 17. Rh3 Bxd4 {On Ba3, 18. d5 is one possibility, after which Ne7 19. Qb3 Bd6 20. a5 is a strong attack.} 18. Be2 Rd6 19. Rb1 Qa5 20. Rb5 {20. cxd4, cashing in immediately, seems a little stronger to me. Alternatively, Rb2, protecting the d2 bishop again in preparation for cxd4, makes more sense to me. Aronian elected instead to take a draw.} Qa6 21. Rb1 Qa5 22. Rb5 {1/2-1/2.}
It confuses me that Aronian didn’t take the opportunity to press on in the face of these complications. I can assume that he eschewed continuing the game in favor of the safe half-point, having already taken numerous risks in this game, because a loss would have been especially damaging. To this I would say: you’ve gotten this far– what sense does it make to take a draw in a position where a win might be just around the corner? Even if Aronian had lost, there were still 13 more rounds…
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov–Levon Aronian Candidates 2018 Rd. 2
1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Qc2 0-0 5. a3 {I’m never really a fan of a3 unless it’s necessary in situations such as these; I feel that Black usually wants to make the exchange anyway, and it’s just a wasted tempo in that case. That being said, Mamedyarov wants the bishop to commit before he does anything else.} Bxc3+ 6. Qxc3 d5 7. Bg5 h6 {Aronian does the same as Mamedyarov, forcing the bishop to take before proceeding.} 8. Bxf6 Qxf6 9. Nf3 c6 10. g3 Nd7 11. Bh3 {The intention being to stop Black from making a pawn push to e5.} b6 {If left unchecked, c5 opens the center and leads to perhaps undesirable exchanges for White if he intends to pursue the win rather than aim for a solid draw.}12. cxd5 cxd5 13. Qc6 {The queen can be easily repelled, but it has a nice position until then.} Rb8 14. 0-0 Rd8 15. Rfc1 Ba6 16. Bf1 Bc4 {Black shuts down the queenside and renders White’s c-file control largely irrelevant.} 17. Qa4 a5 18. b3 b5 {Again, Aronian has nearly trapped his opponent’s queen.} 19. Qxa5 {Nearly.} Bxb3 20. Rc7 Bc4 21. Qa7 {I regard this move as essentially a draw offer: the variation which ends in repetition is immediately obvious, and Shakh didn’t have to play this way.} Ra8 {Aronian graciously accepts, presumably pleased to have secured the half-point as Black.} 22. Qb7 Rab8 23. Qa7 Ra8 24. Qb7 Rab8 {1/2-1/2.}
Overall, a fairly complicated first two games, which were ultimately settled by the players refusing to enter into complications. A half-point from each game, while perhaps a little disappointing considering the pre-tournament predictions surrounding him, seems fair. His third game, however, was atrocious, the sort of the game that could justifiably .
Levon Aronian–Vladimir Kramnik Candidates 2018 Rd. 3
1.e4 {While of course this isn't an objectively bad move, it’s not what he usually plays, and it's one of those things that’ll be nitpicked if the player has a poor game.} e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6 4.d3 Bc5 5. Bxc6 dxc6 6. 0-0 Qe7
7.h3 {Nothing each side has done so far can be attacked for inaccuracy, at the least.} Rg8 {Kramnik, however, dropped this bomb of a near-novelty on Aronian. He would later comment “Black’s just better probably after 7…Rg8… g5 is a big threat, in fact.”} 8.Kh1 {Aronian, who presumably had not prepared for Kramnik's reply, decided to play it safe and sidestep the assault.} Nh5 9.c3 {Aronian, attacked on the side, follows the old precept and attempts to strike back in the center.} g5 10.Nxe5 {Qxe5 11. d4 exchanges the knight, a target for Black's pawns, for one of Black's attackers.} g4 {White can’t take, as either Bxg4 or Qh4+ practically ends the game.} 11.d4 {Instead Aronian continues to expand in the center and push away the Black attackers.} Bd6 12.g3 {The idea being that on gxh3, the h-file is blocked by Black’s own piece, creating relative safety for White's king.} Bxe5 13.dxe5 Qxe5 14.Qd4 Qe7 15.h4 {White has now managed to seal off the h-file and is seemingly safe.} c5 {The White queen is well-positioned, so Kramnik decides to force it to move.} 16.Qc4 Be6 17.Qb5+ c6 18.Qa4 f5 19.Bg5 Rxg5 20.hxg5 f4 21.Qd1 Rd8 22.Qc1 fxg3 23.Na3 Rd3 24.Rd1 Bd5 25.f3 gxf3 26.exd5 Qe2 27.Re1 g2+ {0-1.}
I can’t know what Aronian was thinking after the game, but it seems fair to say his confidence was rattled. His choice to eschew his normal 1.d4 system and play 1.e4 was almost universally criticized, and Hikaru Nakamura went so far as to tweet “Bad opening choice by Aronian…” followed by the image
While I don't think Aronian will have considered 1. e4 a misstep as he prepared for the game, nor as he played the game, the result has to have impacted his attitude toward the opening, as he didn’t play the move again for the rest of the tournament.
He pulled himself together to win the next game, after Karjakin’s extremely questionable opening preparation as White left him two pawns down with little compensation.
Sergey Karjakin–Levon Aronian Candidates 2017 Rd. 4
However, he continued to play inconsistently at best throughout the tournament. Round 5’s game against Grischuk was filled with fireworks, but the edge we’ve come to expect wasn’t there, as he missed several seemingly easy moves.
Levon Aronian–Alexander Grischuk Candidates 2018 Rd. 5
1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 g6 3. f3 {Aronian elects to build a huge center, propping up e4 with the pawn move instead of something more banal like 3. Nc3.} c5 {Of course, it’s not a free pawn, as 4. dxc5 is hit with Qa5+.} 4. d5 d6 5. e4 e6 6. Nc3 exd5 7. cxd5 {Aronian continues his strategy of playing aggressively and pursuing the win, unbalancing the pawn structure rather than enforcing symmetry.} Bg7 8. Nge2 {Natural, as f3 is taken.} Nbd7 9. Ng3 {Freeing the bishop.} h5 {Black aims to displace the knight. with h4.} 10. Be2 Nh7 11. Bf4 {11. Nb5 is a similarly good move, hitting the unprotected d-pawn.} Qe7 12. Qd2 {White threatens to trade off the Black fianchettoed bishop with 13. Bh6.} h4 13. Nf1 g5 {Black thus prevents it and secures his outpost on e5.}14. Be3 Ne5 15. g3 Bd7 16. gxh4 gxh4 {16…g4 was maybe slightly better as it doesn’t allow Aronian to open up the g-file on his terms.} 17. Rg1 f5 18. f4 {White is finally in pole position to push forward.} Ng4 19. e5 dxe5 20. d6 {The end result, forcing the queen into forking position and thus winning the exchange.} Qe6 21. Nb5 Rc8 22. Nc7+ Rxc7 23. dxc7 exf4 24. Rd1 {On fxe3, 25. c8Q is very difficult for Black to deal with. Interestingly enough, I think 0-0-0 was superior as it also gets the king out of the fire to some extent.} Ng5 25. c8=Q+ Bxc8 26. Qd8+ Kf7 27. Qc7+ {27. Qxg5 was also worth a look– although Black does regain the material with fxe3, at the very least after 28. Rxg4 White should have repetition.} Kg8 {Qe7 was much better, practically forcing the queen trade. After this, Black looks lost to me as…}28. Rd6 Qf7 29. Qd8+ {…White had the opportunity to go up at least a piece after 29. Qxc8+. It’s not clear cut for sure but one line is 29. Qxc8+ Kh7 30. Qxc5 fxe3 31. Rxg4, and the f-pawn is pinned to the g5 knight.} Qf8 {In any case, material equality is maintained.} 30. Bxf4 Ne6 31. Bc4 {Now to safely break the pin, Black has to distract the rook.} Qxd8 32. Rxd8+ Kh7 33. Rxh8+ {Either this, or retreating, and at least by trading rooks White keeps the initiative somewhat.} Bxh8 34. Bd6 {Taking stock, Black has two pawns for the intiative– no real advantage, and after some brief maneuvering past the 40-move time control, a draw is agreed.} Ng5 35. Rg2 Ne4 36. Bb8 Bd4 37. h3 Ne5 38. Bd5 Nd3+ 39. Ke2 Nc1+ 40. Kd1 Nd3 41. Nd2 Nf6 42. Bf3 {1/2-1/2.}
Aronian then ran up against Wesely So in the sixth round, and again lost in what Colin McGourty (for chess24.com) described as “unquestionably the game of the day,” a running theme throughout the tournament.
Wesley So – Levon Aronian Candidates 2018 Rd. 6
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.0-0 Be7 6.Re1 b5 7.Bb3 0-0 8.a4 {It’s been a fairly standard opening so far. So decides to mix it up, forcing Black to respond, as 9. axb5 can’t be recaptured.} b4 9.a5 d6 10.d3 Be6 11.Bxe6 {White doesn’t really have a choice other than capturing, as 12. Ba2 loses a pawn, and allowing the b-pawns would be disastrous.} fxe6 {For Black, though, the doubled pawns aren’t bad, as they open up the f-file for the rook and control a number of important central squares.} 12.Nbd2 Rb8 {Black sets about using the space White’s conceded on the queenside.} 13.Nb3 {White, with an eventual Nf5 no longer a possibility, aims at defending against a queenside effort.} Qc8 14.h3 {Preventing a bothersome Ng4.} Nd8 15.Be3 c5 16.Nbd2 {White denies Black the opportunity to push any further, as c4 could seriously damage the White center.} Nc6 {With the pawn pushed and any further movement prevented, the knight resumes its more active position.} 17.c3 {White immediately prevents Nd4.} Rb5 18.d4 {The a-pawn can only be protected by moving the knight a third time, so So forgoes those so-so options and instead sacrifices the pawn to loosen Black’s grip on the center. In any case, the a-pawn Black is left with is exceedingly weak.} exd4 19.cxd4 Nxa5 {Rxa5 was also an option, but there’s no reason to trade with Black’s superior rook position.} 20.dxc5 dxc5 21.Ra2 {White immediately sets about pressuring the weak a-pawn.} Qb7 22.b3 {The first order of business is to prevent any tomfoolery resultant from Black playing c4, b3, c3, etc.} Kh8 {A computer might prefer a more active move, like Nxe4, but after exchanges this only opens up the e-file, making Black’s pawn structure even worse.} 23.Qc2 {In any case, White removes the option.} Nd7 {Black prevents the pawn theft.} 24.Rea1 Bd8 25.Nc4 {The optics of the exchange are initially poor, but White massively improves his queen position (hitting the c-, e- and potentially a-pawns,) as well as clears the a-file.} Nxc4 {For Black’s part, though, he does manage to trade off arguably his worst piece.} 26.Qxc4 Bf6 27.Rd1 Qc6 28.Rad2 {With the first and second ranks cleared, the doubled rooks can easily relocate.} Nb6 29.Qc2 Qc7 {Fearing 30. Rd6, Black moves the queen out of the way ahead of time.} 30.e5 Be7 31.Nd4 {Both sides know that the poorly placed rook is about as good as the knight, and so neither overreacts to the possible material imbalance.} Rc8 32.Nxe6 Qxe5 33.Nf4 Rf8 34.Re2 {Rxf4 35. Bxf4 Qxf4 36. Rxe7 would now lose material for Black.} Qc3 35.Qb1 {Avoiding the trade when material down, although I think I prefer Qa2, forcing Black to respond.} Qf6 36.Bc1 {Both clearing the e-file and preparing Bb2. The multipurpose moves So makes are particularly impressive in this game.} c4 {Instead, Qf7 was necessary to avoid the oncoming Re6.} 37.bxc4 {This is a useful interpolation, quickly resolving the situation with tempo before executing the main threat.} Nxc4 38.Re6 Qg5 {Qf7 was perhaps better, but it still runs into Rd7, pinning and winning the bishop.} 39.Ng6+ Qxg6 {Of course, Kg8 Nxe7+ or hxg6 Bxg5 were even worse disasters.} 40.Rxg6 hxg6 41.Qe4 {This is the move that seals it, forking the knight and bishop.} Bf6 42.Qxc4 b3 {However, the game isn’t completely won; Black still has some threats which must be defended against.} 43.Ba3 Rfb8 44.Rb1 b2 {With the passed pawn now well and truly blockaded, White probes at the kingside.} 45.h4 Ra5 46.Qd3 {Still protecting the bishop.} Rd8 47.Qb3 Rc8 48.Qb7 {Rc1+ isn’t to be feared, as the bishop x-ray-defends the square.} Rd8 49.Qb3 Rc8 50.Qb4 Rb5 51.Qg4 Rc3 {Black wins a bishop, but loses two pawns for his trouble.} 52.Bxb2 Rxb2 53.Rxb2 Rc1+ 54.Kh2 Bxb2 55.Qxg6 Ra1 56.g4 {So, unfazed, sets about winning the won game, using his queen to relentlessly put pressure on Black’s unprotected pieces or check his king.} a5 57.Qh5+ Kg8 58.Qb5 Ba3 59.Qe5 Rd1 60.Qe6+ {There really was no problem with Qxa5 right away, but with a time control at 60 moves, So went with the safer option first.} Kh7 61.Qe4+ Kh8 62.Qa8+ Kh7 63.Qxa5 Bd6+ 64.Kg2 Rd4 {Black now has nothing, and White only must be careful to convert his advantage.} 65.Qf5+ Kh8 66.Qh5+ Kg8 67.g5 Kf8 68.Qg6 Be7 69.Qf5+ Ke8 70.Kh3 Rd6 71.Qh7 Kf7 72.f4 Rd4 73.Qf5+ Ke8 74.Qe5 Rb4 75.Kg4 Kf8 76.Qf5+ Ke8 77.Qe6 Rd4 78.Qe5 {1-0.}
Originally, I was going to go through Aronian’s whole tournament, but as it’s no longer particularly time-relevant, I think I’ll write something more original for the next post, and instead I’ll close you out with the words of Hikaru Nakamura:
Best,
Orion Lehoczky Escobar
Discussion Thread:
Thread 178046
P.S. I’ll keep it brief and ask you to please check out my new site manutd.blog , where I argue against my Manchester United-fan friend in the hopes of demonstrating why the team just isn’t that good– I’m quite proud of some of the work I’m doing over there, and updates should be coming much more regularly with the season starting this weekend.
Also, if you’re a Fantasy Premier League fan, and against Manchester United, I’m running an Anti-United minileague, for which the league code is 259098-241600.