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Originally posted by uzlessHe clearly doesn't understand the CPI or what a hedonic regression is. In the same section, he also talks about using M3 directly as a deflator which is clearly unreasonable. M3 is not a good predictor of inflation, either in or out of sample.
that's his face yes.
No doubt he isn't a totally camera polished interviewer(ee). I'm more interested in the content. He isn't the only one i've read proposing this idea of gold shooting through the roof in the coming years.
Admittedly, I'm not up on the gold scene. Was just wondering if anyone knows if this analysis is spot on or in crack pot land.
Regarding the 'crash' of the dow, I think that he has a point. The graphs of the dow in foreign currencies are probably the most telling. However, most of it comes from the fact that the USD was overvalued for a long time. Some say it still is, but with the current environment it's hard to tell.
Originally posted by Palynkawhat about the content of the youtube videos?
He clearly doesn't understand the CPI or what a hedonic regression is. In the same section, he also talks about using M3 directly as a deflator which is clearly unreasonable. M3 is not a good predictor of inflation, either in or out of sample.
Regarding the 'crash' of the dow, I think that he has a point. The graphs of the dow in foreign currencies are pr ...[text shortened]... d for a long time. Some say it still is, but with the current environment it's hard to tell.
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Originally posted by uzlessI got bored and didn't continue after part 1/3. What I find is that they weren't very factual and very argumentative. I like to see the numbers. If you know of a written piece, send me the link. I would be interesting in reading it.
the videos are more interesting than the website
One thing, though. Regardless whether what they are saying is accurate or not, let me tell you what my initial thoughts are.
Central banks have no particular use for gold beyond the fact that it's a commodity with good storage properties. There are many assets and commodities like that, so the main reason they would like to have gold is if the expected risk-adjusted return on gold is higher than other possibilities.
If this is true, then the outstanding place that gold has had as a reserve commodity should be lower, with respect to when it had additional functions. As gold prices rise, one would expect central banks to sell some of it, consolidating gains. You have to remember that central banks are not producers, so their selling is not a traditional supply increase, but could be more accurately seen as a demand decrease (as the reason for central banks keeping gold today, as opposed to other stores of value, is mostly speculative).
Think about it, you wake up one day with titanic amounts of gold in your coffers. You want to diversify it (say having half gold, half diamonds), but selling half of it outright is going to kill the price you can get. So what do you do? You sell it slowly, but steadily as other market forces* push the price up. This doesn't need any conspiracy and this is effectively what the Greenspan quote, that they allude to, was about.
So what happens when this gold ends? Well, obviously the pace at which gold is rising should increase, because the other forces are not being counter-balanced by these steady sales of gold BUT there need not be a gigantic spike, because the sales were effectively demand decreases (from central banks). That said, the way the markets have been behaving, I wouldn't rule out a possible 'gold rush' bubble.
Bottomline: I think the fundamentals don't justify a spike, but with the current panicky markets I don't rule out the increase in the pace of gold functioning as a coordinating signal.
Practical bottomline: Leave some place for gold in your portfolio. You stand to possibly win a lot and the downside risk is as good as elsewhere.
*The enrichment of Middle Eastern countries, where there is a clear preference for gold, could play a role here but I'm abstracting from what exactly is doing it for now.
Edit - If anyone buys gold based on what an anonymous forum poster (with a nick inspired by booze) said, then that someone clearly deserves any possible losses he gets.
Originally posted by smw6869These are the videos I was talking about...
I actually did watch the videos and even with my lack of understanding of most subjects i have come away with this knowledge: I need to get rid of my guns and ammo before i blow my freakin brains out.
GRANNY.
&feature=related (2 parts)
(3 parts)
Originally posted by uzlessSlightly off topic but while looking at Michael Maloney and friends I came across this brilliant series by a guy called Dr. Albert A. Bartlett from the University of Colorado. It probably deserves a thread on its own but check out his 8 part presentation on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy."
lol, i'm not saying the links are correct...i'm just asking if someone can put the rebuke in a coherent post.
The first couple are background but riveting but by part 3 and 4 it really gets interesting when you can see where its heading.
Its called The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See.
&feature=related (part 1)
(part 2)
(part 3)
(part 4)
(part 5)
(part 6)
(part 7)
(part 8)
Parts 5 and 6 are all peak oil-ish and fascinating to boot.
The wrap up(parts 7 and 8) is a stark warning against the folly of sustained growth as a mantra, and then some!
Enjoy!
Originally posted by kmax87Ya, i saw that one too...excellent way to put things into perspective.
Slightly off topic but while looking at Michael Maloney and friends I came across this brilliant series by a guy called Dr. Albert A. Bartlett from the University of Colorado. It probably deserves a thread on its own but check out his 8 part presentation on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy."
The first couple are background but riveting but by part 3 and ...[text shortened]... s a stark warning against the folly of sustained growth as a mantra, and then some!
Enjoy!
Only way to solve it is for everyone to have 2 kids or less...but basic economics says our economy will tank so what do we do?
Originally posted by uzlessI think that's what the good professor was trying to say though, we only believe that because we are hooked on this notion of sustained growth. As a result of this philosophy of sustainable growth we end up with the oxymoron of strength through exhaustion!
Only way to solve it is for everyone to have 2 kids or less...but basic economics says our economy will tank so what do we do?
Originally posted by kmax87aka, Get while the gettin's good!
I think that's what the good professor was trying to say though, we only believe that because we are hooked on this notion of sustained growth. As a result of this philosophy of sustainable growth we end up with the oxymoron of strength through exhaustion!
Originally posted by kmax87Think a gun would be of any help? Nah! humans won't turn into animals. Calm down! I, ah, have a couple of plinkers for sale......No checks please. Will trade for Jeep.
And have a good back up plan.
Check : One Jeep
Check : Years supply of fuel, water and food
Check : Shovels and rakes and implements of destruction
Check : DIY guides on how to survive a post apocalyptic society
Check : Best of luck!
GRANNY.