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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber kmax87
    You've got Kevin
    11 Jun '09 15:23
    What if all the stimulus and faith in the market regaining confidence and rebounding fails to realise and that great centre of capitalism the US, and Wall Street in particular falls under the weight of their own ponzi greed, will the rest of us survive? Or is America banking on the idea that they are to big to fail?

    Debate!
  2. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    11 Jun '09 16:18
    ===America, too big to fail? ===

    Probably.

    But, more importantly, how would you define "fail"?

    Is 25% unemployment a failure? 200% inflation in 5 years? Armed revolution? Another loss in the next World Baseball Classic?

    The US Government is not going to declare Chapter 11; they can just print money. So, we need to know what it means for a country to fail.
  3. 11 Jun '09 16:27
    Originally posted by sh76
    ===America, too big to fail? ===

    Probably.

    But, more importantly, how would you define "fail"?

    Is 25% unemployment a failure? 200% inflation in 5 years? Armed revolution? Another loss in the next World Baseball Classic?

    The US Government is not going to declare Chapter 11; they can just print money. So, we need to know what it means for a country to fail.
    It is a bad situation, but it is temporary.

    It would be very hard for America to "fail".
  4. 12 Jun '09 02:08
    Originally posted by kmax87
    What if all the stimulus and faith in the market regaining confidence and rebounding fails to realise and that great centre of capitalism the US, and Wall Street in particular falls under the weight of their own ponzi greed, will the rest of us survive? Or is America banking on the idea that they are to big to fail?

    Debate!
    Well it looks like we are giong to find out the hard way.
  5. 12 Jun '09 05:04
    My opinion is that the confdence for US is lower than ever, and this is not temporary. Banks in Europe and elsewhere has depended on the stability of US economics, and this regression tells us that this wasn't as good as we thought.

    Iceland has suffered a lot. There future is inside the EU and Euro. Latvia experience a lot of trouble right now. Banks throoughout the world has fallen.

    I think China is the one that has benefitted of this regression.

    Will US be back eventually? Yes, but not in its former glory.
    Was this glory well earned? This regression answers that question clearly.
  6. Standard member Bosse de Nage
    Zellulärer Automat
    12 Jun '09 05:42
    Originally posted by sh76


    The US Government is not going to declare Chapter 11; they can just print money. So, we need to know what it means for a country to fail.
    How about 'to no longer be the world's first economy'?
  7. Subscriber FMF
    a.k.a. John W Booth
    12 Jun '09 05:57
    Originally posted by Bosse de Nage
    How about 'to no longer be the world's first economy'?
    I thought the Pentagon specifically stated that their weaponization of space was intended to preclude such an outcome.
  8. 12 Jun '09 08:32
    Originally posted by kmax87
    What if all the stimulus and faith in the market regaining confidence and rebounding fails to realise and that great centre of capitalism the US, and Wall Street in particular falls under the weight of their own ponzi greed, will the rest of us survive? Or is America banking on the idea that they are to big to fail?

    Debate!
    I think it really depends on what the landlord (China) decides. Currently it seems to think that the best thing is to keep the US going whilst using its power over the US to get its own agenda moving.
    Co-operation is usually better than everyone for himself, and although China could theoretically withdraw all its money from the US and cause enormous damage by doing so, it would harm itself in the process. However as Asia gets richer, the US's importance as an export market will diminish.

    Rich people and businesses often do manage to live of borrowed money - but they also do fail sometimes as we have seen with various corporations in the US. The problem of living on borrowed money is that it is not your decision whether or not you are too big to fail.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    12 Jun '09 13:52 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by twhitehead
    I think it really depends on what the landlord (China) decides. Currently it seems to think that the best thing is to keep the US going whilst using its power over the US to get its own agenda moving.
    Co-operation is usually better than everyone for himself, and although China could theoretically withdraw all its money from the US and cause enormous dama iving on borrowed money is that it is not your decision whether or not you are too big to fail.
    China has a stronger interest in maintaining a strong dollar than we do.

    If the dollar is devalued and we have massive inflation, as long as the stock market and wages keep pace, it's no big deal for us. It will weaken our ability to buy imported goods; but that's a good thing in many ways.

    Massive inflation really hurts the big holders of the US treasury notes and government bonds; i.e., the Chinese, primarily.

    Of course, if they do get burned by massive inflation, they'll probably think twice before financing our next boom ("fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" ); but all that will mean is that we won't be able to buy every gizmo and trinket we want every time we want it.
  10. 12 Jun '09 20:04
    Look up world GDP figures.
    The E.U. is barely ahead of the U.S. (and this figure is sort of meaningless given the member nations don't act in unison).
    China? We've got twice their GDP.
    Japan? We're three times bigger.

    The U.S. is also the worlds third largest oil producer- not too far behind Russia or Saudi Arabia.

    Military? The U.S. Navy pretty well controls the world's oceans, and more importantly, shipping lanes. Not to mention our nukes. And space. And air power. And land forces.

    China imports the majority of their raw materials and exports the majority of their goods. They probably need us more than we need them if thing get bad.

    I'm not even coming from a pro-U.S. standpoint...but if you look at the numbers, the size of the military, etc., it's hard to see how the U.S. wouldn't find a way to come out on top of any crash that hits.
  11. Standard member bill718
    Enigma
    12 Jun '09 20:25
    Originally posted by kmax87
    What if all the stimulus and faith in the market regaining confidence and rebounding fails to realise and that great centre of capitalism the US, and Wall Street in particular falls under the weight of their own ponzi greed, will the rest of us survive? Or is America banking on the idea that they are to big to fail?

    Debate!
    Another fearmongering question. America will not "fail" As a Real Estate agent, I see the housing market is starting to rebound, banks are lending a bit more, most people still have jobs, and consumer confidence is on the rise. America's economy is clearly not as vibrant as it was, but the idea of America "failing" is silly.
  12. 15 Jun '09 16:46
    dum dum dum ... you're as cold as ice .... doodle de doodle de doodle de doo ...

    http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketReports.htm
  13. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    15 Jun '09 16:49 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by zeeblebot
    dum dum dum ... you're as cold as ice .... doodle de doodle de doodle de doo ...

    http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketReports.htm
    Oh please. Bill718 says that he sees something happening now from the inside of the profession and you contradict him with numbers that were as of 2.5 months ago?
  14. Standard member bill718
    Enigma
    17 Jun '09 01:36
    Originally posted by sh76
    Oh please. Bill718 says that he sees something happening now from the inside of the profession and you contradict him with numbers that were as of 2.5 months ago?
    sh76...thank you!
  15. Subscriber FMF
    a.k.a. John W Booth
    17 Jun '09 01:40
    Originally posted by bill718
    sh76...thank you!
    The esteem in which sh76 is held here grows as each day passes.