@sonhouse said -
"Polls don't mean a whole lot 6 months from the election. The pols for Trump will take a decided dump if he is convicted in this hush money trial. It is already effecting some of his base. What surprises me is after all the convictions for fraud like TWO of his businesses so far shut down by the government, Trump Uni and Trump so called 'charity'."
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Eot: I agree, polls don't mean much this time of year, as Ronnie Reagan showed.
BUT, you cannot say Trump will be held in contempt over a conviction just because YOU feel that way. A lot of people admire Trump for sticking to it when it is clear that the democrats are simply attempting to influence the election with their parade of court suits, so perfectly timed.
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@sonhouse said -
And now the fraud case in NY, why people think that is no big deal. It at least shows clearly he has no morals like having a year long affair with McDougal and a tryst with Stormy while his son was born shows clearly he cheats on his wife and I would suppose whataboutisms would come into play comparing T to Bill Clinton who got some BJ's in the WH but that is nothing compared to the frauds and womanizing of Trump.
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EoT: Tell me did you refuse to vote for Bill Clinton because - as a married man, he arguably had sex with hundreds? One was a young white house intern that Bil had cigar sex (and more) with, in the oval office, while Bill's wife and daughter were sleeping right down the hall.
Come on dude,, THAT is disgusting,
@Earl-of-Trumps
Billy was a sleaseball no doubt and JFK wasn't far behind but Trump is at another level altogether. He is a known womanizer, even implying he would like to hump his own daughter and has zero in the way of morals but that is only one aspect of his dark side, can't think of a suitable word to describe the depth of his corruption.
Sexually corrupt, financially corrupt, you know good and well he upped the value of his properties for the best deals on loan but the same property worth 1/10th as much for tax purposes and when asked why he didn't pay taxes, he goes 'because I am SMART'. Not smart, 100% illegal as it turned out.
He failed to even keep a casino going and went through 4 separate bankrupts and his apologists just go 'business has it's ups and downs' but he was forced into bankruptcy because he was incompetent as a business man not because of some market crash or other.
He was so bad at business Daddy Trump had to give him a half billion to save his sorry butt time after time.
He is a pathological liar, he thinks it is funny when he lies, told by his niece Mary Trump who grew up in the same circles so knows Trump from childhood.
And she holds a Phd in psychology so she knows what she is talking about when she is interviewed about his mental state and such.
She relayed a story about how her bestie came over and Trump told that girl Mary was a coke addict and such, totally BS and Trump was smiling when he said that which of course devastates a teen age girls.
So his TV show is what got him the notoriety to push for the WH and when he said 'you are fired' he wasn't even the one making that decision, it had nothing to do with competence, it had everything to do with keeping up positive watch numbers and it was the producers telling Trump who got fired.
Then there are all the legal problems and the two old ones, government shutting down Trump "university' and Trump so called "Trump Charity" both proven in court to be frauds and got shut down.
But none of that matters, zero empathy, misogynist as evidenced by the Access Hollywood tape, Grab 'em by the pussy' and then the hush money payments and then the 'I only want 11780 votes' to the Georgia sec.. of State and the fake elector scheme, AND TS docs in Mar A Lago not given up and in fact hiding them in unsecure locations at Mar A Lago where spies got in and no doubt got photo copies of them and Trump himself bragging to that Aussie billionaire about the TS doc talking about how close our navy could gen in a sub chasing an enemy sub.
All that together adds up for me to a wanna be dictator and he made his points very clear in the Times article of exactly what he will do if reelected.
How can his base ignore ALL of that and then say they want him to be our next POTUS?
Seemingly, not taking part in most of these polls are millenials and gen Z.
And that’s interesting, because these two groups (people under 35 say) make up 40% of the electorate in the coming elections.
And a vast majority of them do not support trump or conservativism and a great many are hell bent on making a difference.
It’s a good sign for American politics.
Once again, we have a 3rd poll showing that Trump's lead over Biden increases when independent candidates are included.
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Poll: Results ‘Reversed’ in 2024 Election as Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Among Independents
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden among independents, an I&I/TIPP Poll, released Monday, found.
[...]
The margin for Trump among independents only grows when third-party candidates are included, leading Biden with 33 percent to 25 percent — an eight-point margin.
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https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/05/11/poll-results-reversed-in-2024-election-as-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden-among-independents/
Suzie, that's three, now.
The DNC better start beating up on Robert Kennedy because if he grows over the summer, you can kiss Biden goodbye
@Earl-of-Trumps saidJust what exactly has Biden not done for you, that Trump would?
He's not my "chosen man" but someone I would endorse over Biden.
This is early to predict what will happen in November but I found it curious that slanted-left CNN would find these results
@kmax87 saidhow about:
Just what exactly has Biden not done for you, that Trump would?
- Shore up the leaky Southern border (my biggest problem with biden)
- Trump would not have forced people to take vaccines.
- Trump did/would not print funny money the way this fool has.
- Trump reduced taxes that set the economy on a torrid pace, Biden wants to raise taxes, of course.
I do, however, give Biden credit for his stance in the Israel/Palestine situation
@AverageJoe1 saidStill shouting at clouds, Joe?
That which you list is peanuts when you see what REALLY will happen. To a 100% capitalist, self-reliant, independent, freedom, loving person like myself, it will be no less than Armageddon. The Wyoming citizens will be astounded when you start by building all the housing on the fruited plains!
@Earl-of-Trumps saidAlways the victim.
NEW POLL: RFK Jr. Is a Huge Help to Trump in Swing States
Isaac Schorr Apr 30th, 2024, 8:53 am
A new survey out from The Hill and Emerson University suggests that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be an enormous drag on President Joe Biden’s campaign and an enormous help to former President Donald Trump’s.
According to the pol ...[text shortened]... eping Trump in court for 4 years backfired. People see him now as a martyr and they rally behind him
Trump says we should have a strong leader.
How is a whiny victim strong?
@AverageJoe1 saidYou are insane if you think Trump is equipped to be anything but a horrible president, just like the first time. Why would any sane person want a replay of that dumpster fire?
I admit, we need to elect the one person that can run this country. It cannot be Biden, of course, he does not even give a crap what is going on in the universities. No help. So the only person left would be Trump. If everyone, including him can settle down after his conviction and incarceration, I think he could probably run the country from his cell quite easily. So I w ...[text shortened]... d, I would have been glad to be the person to push the button at Hiroshima,, so we are worlds apart.
@Earl-of-Trumps saidPolling over the last 50 years constantly shows that third party candidates support falls dramatically as the election gets closer.:
Once again, we have a 3rd poll showing that Trump's lead over Biden increases when independent candidates are included.
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Poll: Results ‘Reversed’ in 2024 Election as Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Among Independents
[i]Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden among independents, an [b]I&I/TI ...[text shortened]... r start beating up on Robert Kennedy because if he grows over the summer, you can kiss Biden goodbye
" Third party candidates often poll better than they perform, and antipathy to the two major party frontrunners may artificially boost his on-paper numbers. Just to cite one recent example, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein were averaging 9% and 3% support, respectively, in the RealClearPolitics national polling average as late as September 2016. They ended up getting just 3.3% and 1.1%, respectively, when the votes were actually cast. "
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-third-party-wild-card/
Indeed, going further back, Ross Perot actually led in June 1992. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/06/09/perot-leads-field-in-poll/5c0499dd-d5c5-42e4-bc63-e4c32ca083e7/
So if you are correct and most of RFK, Jr's. support is from dissatisfied independents who voted for Biden before, most will eventually (if reluctantly) vote for the President again come November.
@no1marauder
good points.
but I will say this, if ever there were two candidates that maximized the voters going 3rd party, it's these two..
@no1marauder saidThis bolsters my theory people don't go to the polls to vote for something, the main driver is to vote against something, this is what drives the two party seesaw.
Polling over the last 50 years constantly shows that third party candidates support falls dramatically as the election gets closer.:
" Third party candidates often poll better than they perform, and antipathy to the two major party frontrunners may artificially boost his on-paper numbers. Just to cite one recent example, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein we ...[text shortened]... for Biden before, most will eventually (if reluctantly) vote for the President again come November.
All the opposition need to do is STFU, and after one or two terms the voters short memory deletes all the bad things the opposition did, and it becomes imperative to get the incumbents out, they forget that the two main parties are both part of the same machine. Sure, there are exceptions but overall it's the same in Aus, NZ and the UK, despite some whacky electoral systems (NZ has First Past the Post) it's "We have to stop A-Hole 'A', the best way to do that is hold our noses and vote for A-Hole 'B'."
shag pseudy has floated the race to the bottom theory recently, it's the only sense we've had out of him in years.
@no1marauder saidYou WANT Biden in office the next 4 years? What do you really want? I know.
Polling over the last 50 years constantly shows that third party candidates support falls dramatically as the election gets closer.:
" Third party candidates often poll better than they perform, and antipathy to the two major party frontrunners may artificially boost his on-paper numbers. Just to cite one recent example, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein we ...[text shortened]... for Biden before, most will eventually (if reluctantly) vote for the President again come November.
I'd prefer Biden to step down and the Democrats to nominate a younger, more progressive candidate; Gretchen Whitmer would be ideal.
But I'll probably do what I've done in every Presidential election since 1992 i.e. vote for the most progressive third party candidate on the ballot. Because of the ridiculous way the Electoral College is now (far from what the Framers envisioned) it won't matter; New York is a safe "blue" State, so anyone who votes in NY will wind up being considered to have voted for the Democrat anyway.