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Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 22:02 / 1 edit
    At the end of his rather nasty debate with opponent Jack Conway, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul stormed off the dais and refused to shake hands with his opponent. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/18/1878631/rand-paul-refuses-to-shake-hands.html

    Could this juvenile stunt cost him the Kentucky Senate election? Rasmussen Reports, a Republican leaning polling organization, had consistently shown him with a double digit lead but in its polls taken the day after the debate, this was cut approximately in half. Other polls had previously shown Paul's lead as smaller in about the 5 point range, so if that trend holds in other survey he could suddenly be in trouble (as well as Republican hopes to take the Senate).

    Does Rand have some anger issues? And despite the rough and tumble nature of American politics, do most voters expect some level of civility from people who are running for public office?
  2. 19 Oct '10 22:17
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    At the end of his rather nasty debate with opponent Jack Conway, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul stormed off the dais and refused to shake hands with his opponent. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/18/1878631/rand-paul-refuses-to-shake-hands.html

    Could this juvenile stunt cost him the Kentucky Senate election? Rasmussen Reports, a Republic ...[text shortened]... cs, do most voters expect some level of civility from people who are running for public office?
    Nice spin. Rand announced before the end of the debate he would not be shaking hands w/Conway because of of the juvenile accusations Conway leveled at him.

    This has helped Rand if anything.
  3. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 22:23
    Originally posted by utherpendragon
    Nice spin. Rand announced before the end of the debate he would not be shaking hands w/Conway because of of the juvenile accusations Conway leveled at him.

    This has helped Rand if anything.
    Do you have some evidence that it "helped him"? The Rassmussen Poll certainly suggests otherwise.
  4. 19 Oct '10 22:24
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    At the end of his rather nasty debate with opponent Jack Conway, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul stormed off the dais and refused to shake hands with his opponent. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/18/1878631/rand-paul-refuses-to-shake-hands.html

    Could this juvenile stunt cost him the Kentucky Senate election? Rasmussen Reports, a Republic ...[text shortened]... cs, do most voters expect some level of civility from people who are running for public office?
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_paul_vs_conway-1148.html#polls

    the cool thing about this website is that it lets you see ALL the polls that have been published for each race, so you don't have to rely only on Rasmussen.

    anyway - here's the polls taken since mid-Sept:

    Daily Kos/PPD -- Sep 11-12 -- Paul +7
    SurveyUSA -- Sep 21-23 -- Paul +2
    Rasmussen -- Sep 29 -- Paul +11
    CN2/Braun Research -- Oct 4-6 -- Paul +3
    Rasmussen -- Oct 18 -- Paul +5

    Doesn't appear that the recent debate had a discernable impact - at least not yet. The two Rasmussen results are probably just normal flucuations within the range of error. We'll have to see what the next few polls say.
  5. 19 Oct '10 22:25
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Do you have some evidence that it "helped him"? The Rassmussen Poll certainly suggests otherwise.
    If so, this could start a nationwide stradgedy for Dems. Just act like an arse and wait for their opponents not to shake their hands after the debates. Brilliant!!
  6. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 22:28 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Melanerpes
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_paul_vs_conway-1148.html#polls

    the cool thing about this website is that it lets you see ALL the polls that have been published for each race, so you don't have to rely only on Rasmussen.

    anyway - here's the polls taken since mid-Sept:

    Daily Kos/PPD -- Sep 11-12 -- Paul +7
    Su normal flucuations within the range of error. We'll have to see what the next few polls say.
    WHAT???? The debate was October 17th; the Rassmussen poll was the only one taken AFTER the debate and it showed Paul's lead being cut in half!

    Stats obviously ain't your thing.

    From Rasmussen: Paul is now ahead by only five points, his smallest lead to date in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

    ..........................

    Late last month, Paul, an ophthalmologist and political newcomer, posted a 49% to 38% lead over Conway, Kentucky’s current attorney general. In 12 surveys prior to this latest one, Paul has led by seven to 15 points, earning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, in those same surveys, has picked up 34% to 42% support
  7. Donation rwingett
    Ming the Merciless
    19 Oct '10 22:29
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    At the end of his rather nasty debate with opponent Jack Conway, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul stormed off the dais and refused to shake hands with his opponent. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/18/1878631/rand-paul-refuses-to-shake-hands.html

    Could this juvenile stunt cost him the Kentucky Senate election? Rasmussen Reports, a Republic ...[text shortened]... cs, do most voters expect some level of civility from people who are running for public office?
    It is a sad comment on the American voters if a spurned handshake is what it takes to turn them off from a certifiable lunatic like Rand Paul.
  8. 19 Oct '10 22:48 / 3 edits
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    WHAT???? The debate was October 17th; the Rassmussen poll was the only one taken AFTER the debate and it showed Paul's lead being cut in half!

    Stats obviously ain't your thing.

    From Rasmussen: Paul is now ahead by only five points, his smallest lead to date in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

    . ...[text shortened]... arning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, in those same surveys, has picked up 34% to 42% support
    Are you aware of what polling error is? There is a normal range of error by which poll results will vary, even if they use absolutely perfect samples. No poll can give you an exact result.

    My point is that the recent polls leading up to that debate (as well as that last Rasmussen poll) show Paul up by +7, +2, +11, +3, and +5. The first Rasmussen result of +11 seems to be on the high end of the error range. The +5 result seems to be closer to the middle.

    Earlier polls dating from before the middle of Sept have showed Paul being as high as +15 (I'll ignore the one outlier that had it +25), and a couple polls have had the race tied, and one had Conway ahead by 1. But most of the polls have Paul somewhere between +3 and +8, which is extremely likely where the truth lies. This is the sort of thing that one would expect given the range of error for polls of this size.

    I know you desperately want to see the polls showing a major trend favoring Conway, but if you look at ALL the polls and not just these two Rasmussen polls, there's no reason to believe - at least NOT YET - that Conway is making any progress.
  9. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    19 Oct '10 22:53
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    WHAT???? The debate was October 17th; the Rassmussen poll was the only one taken AFTER the debate and it showed Paul's lead being cut in half!

    Stats obviously ain't your thing.

    From Rasmussen: Paul is now ahead by only five points, his smallest lead to date in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

    . ...[text shortened]... arning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, in those same surveys, has picked up 34% to 42% support
    Ultimately I think Paul will be able to milk more out of this than Conway. For example, watch Chris Mathews practically maul Conway over it for 7 minutes, and then consider how Paul will now be able to hit the stump about Conway's gutter politics for the next two weeks.

    Here's the Mathews vid:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKEFzyDEn3w&feature=player_embedded
  10. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 22:59 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by Melanerpes
    Are you aware of what polling error is? There is a normal range of error by which poll results will vary, even if they use absolutely perfect samples. No poll can give you an exact result.

    My point is that the recent polls leading up to that debate (as well as that last Rasmussen poll) show Paul up by +7, +2, +11, +3, and +5. The first Rasmussen result n polls, there's no reason to believe - at least NOT YET - that Conway is making any progress.
    Rasmussen has been polling using the same exact methods all year. There is no "polling error" that explains the change and Rasmussen, a pro-Republican, concedes that. Your "spin" is just that. Why would I look at polls BEFORE the debate to judge the effect OF the debate? You don't make any sense. To repeat:

    From Rasmussen: Paul is now ahead by only five points, his smallest lead to date in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

    ..........................

    Late last month, Paul, an ophthalmologist and political newcomer, posted a 49% to 38% lead over Conway, Kentucky’s current attorney general. In 12 surveys prior to this latest one, Paul has led by seven to 15 points, earning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, in those same surveys, has picked up 34% to 42% support.


    So Paul, all of a sudden, is at his lowest level of support and Conway at his highest. But that's just "polling error" according to you? Laughable.

    EDIT: RealclearPolitics moved the race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss up" just today. Apparently I'm not the only one thinking Conway is making progress.
  11. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 23:00
    Originally posted by Sleepyguy
    Ultimately I think Paul will be able to milk more out of this than Conway. For example, watch Chris Mathews practically maul Conway over it for 7 minutes, and then consider how Paul will now be able to hit the stump about Conway's gutter politics for the next two weeks.

    Here's the Mathews vid:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKEFzyDEn3w&feature=player_embedded
    More spin. Perhaps you could explain the Rasmussen results.
  12. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    19 Oct '10 23:16
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    More spin. Perhaps you could explain the Rasmussen results.
    What spin? I didn't dispute the Rasmussen results or your take on what they mean.

    I just think in the long run this will work out for Paul as both sides put their spin on it, despite your hopes. Also it's humorous that you accuse me of spin when you are so obviously trying to characterize Paul's actions as some kind of childish temper tantrum instead of a planned counter attack to Conway's ad.
  13. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    19 Oct '10 23:20 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by Sleepyguy
    What spin? I didn't dispute the Rasmussen results or your take on what they mean.

    I just think in the long run this will work out for Paul as both sides put their spin on it, despite your hopes. Also it's humorous that you accuse me of spin when you are so obviously trying to characterize Paul's actions as some kind of childish temper tantrum instead of a planned counter attack to Conway's ad.
    A "planned counterattack"??? LMAO!!!

    Would holding his breath and stomping his feet have amounted to a "planned counterattack" also IYO? It's simple civility to shake hands at a debate even if you hate the other guy and it is a childish tantrum to refuse to.

    There's another debate scheduled and Paul apparently wants to back out. How do you think that will play?
  14. Subscriber Sleepyguy
    Reepy Rastardly Guy
    19 Oct '10 23:22
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    A "planned counterattack"??? LMAO!!!
    Here's the video (under 2 minutes). Hardly "storming off" or "juvenile".

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz53WkDY8H4&feature=player_embedded

    You don't think those comments were planned?
  15. 19 Oct '10 23:22 / 3 edits
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Rasmussen has been polling using the same exact methods all year. There is no "polling error" that explains the change and Rasmussen, a pro-Republican, concedes that. Your "spin" is just that. Why would I look at polls BEFORE the debate to judge the effect OF the debate? You don't make any sense.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate

    The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on October 18, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology


    the latest Rasmussen poll showed Paul with 47% and Conway with 42%.

    the margin of sampling error (let's round it down to 4% for argument sake) means that if a complete survey questioning every single voter in Kentucky had Paul with 47-42 lead -- 95% of polls using Rasmussen's sample size will produce results falling within a range of Paul being up 51-38 to Paul losing 43-46 (based on Paul getting 47% plus or minus 4% ) -- and 5% of polls will show even weirder results that fall outside these boundaries.

    this is what I mean by "polling error". It doesn't mean that anyone screwed up when doing the poll. It doesn't mean Rasmussen has changed the way they do polls. It's simply the mathematical price you pay by only asking 500 people. You can't get a perfect result. All you can get is a range. That's why every poll comes with a "margin of sampling error" based on a mathematical formula based on probability theory. If you want your poll to have a smaller "margin of sampling error", you need to have a larger sample size.