Fund managers across the globe are building up defensive positions in their investment portfolios because of fears of a double-dip recession in many economies.
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, professional investors have returned from their summer breaks in a less than buoyant mood. Many are approaching the fourth quarter with a heightened sense of caution, increasing their cash positions and buying shares that have defensive characteristics.
The survey coincides with pessimistic views from Neil Woodford, one of the most listened-to fund managers in Britain. He said life was going to be very tough and that the chances of the country falling back into recession next year had increased.
US economy will go into a recession in 2010 -- 18.0
US economy will go into a recession in 2011 -- 37.0
US economy will go into a recession in 2012 -- 37.1
so the money is still being bet pretty strongly in favor of economic growth continuing to remain north of zero over the next couple years (if only barely).
Originally posted by Melanerpes according to the latest numbers at InTrade
US economy will go into a recession in 2010 -- 18.0
US economy will go into a recession in 2011 -- 37.0
US economy will go into a recession in 2012 -- 37.1
so the money is still being bet pretty strongly in favor of economic growth continuing to remain north of zero over the next couple years (if only barely).
But the Telegraph says the double dip is coming, so it must be true.
Originally posted by KazetNagorra But the Telegraph says the double dip is coming, so it must be true.
37.0 is much greater than 0 -- so while majority might not be betting on it, a pretty sizeable minority is -- so a double-dip is hardly beyond the realm of realistic possibility.
Originally posted by zeeblebot http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares-and-stock-tips/8009710/Investors-get-set-for-the-double-dip-recession-ride.html
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Fund managers across the globe are building up defensive positions in their investment portfolios because of fears of a double-dip recession in many economies.
According to the latest Bank of Ameri ...[text shortened]... and that the chances of the country falling back into recession next year had increased.
I was watching the Nightly Business Report (PBS) today and they said since the recession ended so long ago that there should be no talk of a double dip recession because it would be considered another separate recession instead of a double dip.
Personally, I think the recession never really ended and our government is blowing smoke up our asses. Does it feel like the recession has ended to you guys?
Originally posted by Metal Brain I was watching the Nightly Business Report (PBS) today and they said since the recession ended so long ago that there should be no talk of a double dip recession because it would be considered another separate recession instead of a double dip.
Personally, I think the recession never really ended and our government is blowing smoke up our asses. Does it feel like the recession has ended to you guys?
there are two ways you can define recession.
the official definition looks at whether or not the overall GDP is actually still shrinking -- if so, then we're still in a recession, if not then we're in the recovery phase.
HOWEVER - since the population is steadily growing - the economy needs to grow by a certain amount and create a certain amount of net jobs every year just to keep the unemployment and per capita GDP from getting worse. If the economy is growing by less than this amount (since things would still be getting worse for most people) you can argue that we are indeed still in a "recession" even though the growth rate is north of zero.
Perhaps the someone could invent a term for the latter scenario? -- perhaps "subpar growth" or something like that?
Double Dip is coming!
20 Sep '10 05:58
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