Did anyone see the NASA news conference yesterday concerning the "first direct detection" of a planet in another star system?
And have you been following the 'indirect' detections of these planets?
We are ALIVE with planets.
So that fills out one very interesting part of the Drake equation. The "number of stars that have planets" seems to be "virtually all".
That is good for the hope of "not being alone".
Did you know that by me making this followup of an interesting idea, in order to add further information that 'may' be interesting, that I am "pushing my own threads trying to be important"?
That is what marauder thinks. I think I just want to offer more ideas to the thread.
Drake now has filled out his equation to the best of his ability. He thinks there are 10 Billion... 10 thousand million -- 10,000,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxie who should be as advanced as we are on earth.
I think he is too high because of the one simple fact that he has glossed over in the single variable "On worlds where life arises, how many develop technology able to use electromagnetic communications"?
He failed to notice that there have been as many as 100 million species alive on earth in the last 3.9 Billion years. Of that number, only ONE -- Homo Sapiens -- turned that trick.
One in a hundred million ain't too good of odds.
By the way... PETA -- eat your heart out. There are an estimated 10 million species alive today. That number is growing at astounding rates. Far more species are being born than are dying.
My source for this is the new science series on PBS called "Origins". It is really good.
Originally posted by StarValleyWy
Did you know that by me making this followup of an interesting idea, in order to add further information that 'may' be interesting, that I am "pushing my own threads trying to be important"?
My source for this is the new science series on PBS called "Origins". It is really good.
LOL, I think one of the things I'll miss most about RHP one day is your "post evenings". The ones where you're high on redbull and see how many posts you can reply to 🙂
stay well
PC
Originally posted by pcaspianThanks. But not Redbull!!!! ppplllease!
Originally posted by StarValleyWy
[b]Did you know that by me making this followup of an interesting idea, in order to add further information that 'may' be interesting, that I am "pushing my own threads trying to be important"?
My source for this is the new science series on PBS called "Origins". It is really good.
LOL, I think one o ...[text shortened]... ones where you're high on redbull and see how many posts you can reply to 🙂
stay well
PC[/b]
Good old "whatever is on sale" is what I buy. I drink "because it is there"... not to get to the top.
Wow. That was deep. Comparing a mountain to a drinking problem... errr... nevermind.
Anyway. Glad that somebody notices. Even bad reviews are better than none.
How are you?
Mike
Originally posted by StarValleyWy
How are you?
Mike
Rather good thanks. One more tough day at a client tomorrow, then 4 days off. Seems I'll get 6 hours and ... 10 mins sleep tonight, but atleast I won 2 consecutive games of warcraft 3 against some guys that called me some rather nasty names. Unfortunitely for them I beat them quite convinsingly so had the last say 🙂 PLUS there is a BIG chocolate fix this weekend and I believe I've made a successfull attempt at stressing to my wife how I really don't mind if she spends £20 on my easter egg.
Lets be honest, doesn't get better than this huh ?
Stay well man and have a supa easter 🙂
pc
Another area where I don't think Drake has it right is "how long" each techno-civilization will last.
He says 10,000 years.
I say that we will probably kill ourselves within about two thousand years of becoming a "space born" civilization. That started on New Years Day... July 20, 1969. The first time that Homo Saps set foot on a foreign world -- the moon.
So two thousand years and counting.
I really think we will not develop enough ability to live off the earth. Then the earth will be hit and destroyed. We will die with it.
This is just a gut feeling I have because not one in a million people think it is important to just USE UP THE EARTH and move out and on.
Do whatever we must to "spread out". Maybe the Drake equation is a curse in a way. It fails to mention the most important factor of all. How many "hundreds of millions of years without a comet strike" can the average planet expect? We are way over due. The arrangement of almost perfectly circular orbits of the planets -- combined with the location and mass of the outer gas giants -- give us an extrodinary length of time to develop "intelligence".
That is being squandered. We know we are living on borrowed time, but don't care. So I guess we kind of deserve whatever awaits us.
From the time life advanced beyond "Single Cell" life has been six hundred million years. Three point 2 Billion years of single cellness. Then another 600 million to get to us. BUT... "Intelligence" arose only in the past two million of those 600 million years.
All big life gets clobbered and destroyed every 500 million years. That is a fact. We are just way over due, but that is life. Rational beings have the choice to set and play chimp pack or move out into the unknown. I was amused at the inability of Redmike to consider that he isn't owned by anyone and can "move and start over".
That is us alright. Afraid of any change.
So I guess we will have to see if Drake the Optimist or SVW the realist is right. I think we are way stupid to just wait for it to hit us when we can get started building the civilization that is INEVITABLE out from earth.
There's a rogue asteroid with "Earth" written upon it. BUT, Earthlings have nukes. And telescopes. If Rogue is spotted, nukes could be detonated near it to deflect it. Here's how it could work. Detonate a nuke at some distance from the asteroid. The first thing out of a nuclear weapon as it explodes is massive X-Rays, these X-rays are the "colour temperature" of the processes occuring inside the nuke, eg the Sun appears yellow because of its surface temperature, your electric stove elements appear red because of their temperature, the nuke is so hot that its colour appears as X-rays.
The X-rays go off in all directions but the ones that hit the asteroid are absorbed and give up their energy to the material of the outer layer of the asteroid nearest the nuke. In absorbing this energy, the outer layers of the asteroid adjacent to the nuke are heated to explosive vapourization, eg they turn into a rapidly expanding gas which expels the mass of these outer layers violently outwards with the main vector of expansion being towards the nuke. For every action, there is an equal and opposite action. (Who said that?) The action is tons of mass of the asteroid being blown off toward the nuke, the opposite action is a force being exerted on the asteroid 180 degrees away from this. The asteroid is given a push, in other words.
Repeat as needed to change the asteroid's orbit around the sun to miss you.
Originally posted by KneverKnightAny "explosion" near or "on" or "in" a comet will behave in a perfectly Newtonian fashion.
There's a rogue asteroid with "Earth" written upon it. BUT, Earthlings have nukes. And telescopes. If Rogue is spotted, nukes could be detonated near it to deflect it. Here's how it could work. Detonate a nuke at some distance from the asteroid. The first thing out of a nuclear weapon as it explodes is massive X-Rays, these X-rays are the "colour t ...[text shortened]... , in other words.
Repeat as needed to change the asteroid's orbit around the sun to miss you.
Which means time is the key. If one manages to break apart a 4.5 billion year old chunk of very well compacted crap... that is ten miles on a side... you must do it with ALL THE NUKES EVER BUILT, and at least 20 million kilometers from earth. Then have a lot of luck.
What are the odds? Not to damned good.
The reason I say that is that more people are really concerned about foot ball than are concerned about what might happen next year.
If a comet has us in it's sights -- we would have to launch at the very moment of detection. What are the odds? Not too good. We all belong to the UN and condone slavery.
Think about that. If we ignore that evil for a thousand years -- what will save us if we need to act tomorrow?
Originally posted by StarValleyWyYeah, comets and other "fragile" bodies will need to be deflected gradually. Which points to the need for time to see what's headed our way, which points to better "air traffic control" eg more telescopes, automated equipment, a few more bucks being spent. The odds are that it won't happen in our lifetimes, but the odds are that it will happen again (like the impact that wiped out the dinosaurs) is assured. For a few more bucks we can study what level of detection we need to avert catastrophe.
Any "explosion" near or "on" or "in" a comet will behave in a perfectly Newtonian fashion.
Which means time is the key. If one manages to break apart a 4.5 billion year old chunk of very well compacted crap... that is ten mile ...[text shortened]... a thousand years -- what will save us if we need to act tomorrow?
Originally posted by KneverKnightWith NEO we now have mapped virtually 80% of the near earth orbit astroids.
Yeah, comets and other "fragile" bodies will need to be deflected gradually. Which points to the need for time to see what's headed our way, which points to better "air traffic control" eg more telescopes, automated equipment, a f ...[text shortened]... we can study what level of detection we need to avert catastrophe.
But you see... a comet is a bigger and badder thing that an astroid.
Astroids are no problems. They live here. We have them down pretty good.
A comet comes from the outer solar system. They are big. They kill. They get here in about a year or two from the time we "see" them.
That is way too late.
What we need is four really good wide camera surveys out at the orbit of Pluto. With the teams assembled there to act with the goods they might require.
Can you imagine that? The human race ready to act? I can't.
The earth has been killed seventeen times that we know of.
Since more than single cell life evolved. That is to say in the last 600 million years.
What a tiny breath in the great race of the universe. It is litterally one breath in a marathon.
And in that tiny breath, earth has been destroyed 17 times.
We are living on borrowed time.
But we are all great chimps. We just want to eat, fart and win a chess match. That is what we are. Important. Content. Afraid to move. God. I am owned by the rich capitalists! It's their fault.
So we will set here like rotting turds and die. Because that is what we do. We don't act without a mighty chimp like hitler making us move.
What a silly, sad, pittiful bunch of do nothing chimps.
Originally posted by StarValleyWyBetter air traffic control, or at least, know what's happening. We have the technology. Early warning is the best.
With NEO we now have mapped virtually 80% of the near earth orbit astroids.
But you see... a comet is a bigger and badder thing that an astroid.
Astroids are no problems. They live here. We have them down pretty good.
A comet comes from the outer solar system. They are big. They kill. They get here in about a year or two from the time we "see ...[text shortened]... hty chimp like hitler making us move.
What a silly, sad, pittiful bunch of do nothing chimps.
Originally posted by KneverKnightYea. Excellent point.
Better air traffic control, or at least, know what's happening. We have the technology. Early warning is the best.
But for the killers... the comets, we must get out to the orbit of Pluto and act there. Newton rules from that point. Nothing the human race can do will affect a trillion tonnes of mass short of that point.
Unless we develop a lot of new technologies real quick.
The thing is. We can start to build these outposts. That is what "military" money should do. Fight the "war" of survival.
All the money spent on military now is just postponing the inevitable attack with virus's.
We will lose a billion people in the next hundred years.
Because we don't really see the problem. EVERY penny spent on making a few thousand people safe on airplanes (some 100 billions per year) need to instead go to virus research.
We lose a few tens of thousands. That's a lot of airplanes.
But we gain survival when the real attack comes.
"You ain't seen nothin' yet, my chillin's. You ain't seen nothin' yet!"
The beautiful part of the Drake equation requires the ability to "time dream".
Not many people have learned this skill. You go alone into a land with danger. Without food. You live as you can for five days. Or thirty. I have done ten of these learning things.
Then, when you come to the end of your time, you will know how to face time alone with comfort in thought of the god and the world and the unknown.
That is how we all should face life.
Life? Sure. Is not the act of birth the act of dying alone? In some magical moment? Don't we all face that magical moment together?
What sort of fool won't wake up in the most desperate moment to crack one last joke?
Not me. I will think of it for a month if needs be. Then use it. Then die.
That is what life is. A desperate attempt to just get by and still have a sense of humor.