(note: m. k. hubbert was a (founding?) member of the technocratic movement.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak
"The Hubbert Peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Early in the curve (pre-peak), production increases due to the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.
"Peak Oil" as a proper noun, also known as Hubbert's peak, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. The theory is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who created a model of known oil reserves, and proposed, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956 [3], that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States between 1965 and 1970, and worldwide within "about half a century" from publication.
When the global peak will occur is a controversial issue. Production peaks are difficult to predict, and generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1971 [4]. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1962 [5]. Some estimates for the date of worldwide peak in oil production, made by Hubbert and others, have already passed. Estimates for the date of Peak Oil range from 2005 to dates after 2025.
Opinions on the effects of Hubbert's peak, and the subsequent terminal decline of global oil production, range from predictions that the market economy will produce a solution, to doomsday scenarios of global economic meltdown and societal collapse.
...
Has it happened already?
World oil supply.[2] Source: IEA
World Oil Supply 2002-2006 Q2. Source: Multiple tables from IEA
World Crude Oil Production 1960-2004. Sources: DOE/EIA, IEAChevron states that "oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries". [14] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks.
World oil production growth trends, in the short term, have flattened out over the last 18 months. Global production averaged 84.4 MB/day in 2005, up only 0.2 MB/day (0.2😵 from 84.2MB/day in Q4 2004 (see figure at right). Production in Q2 2006 was 85.1MB/day, up 0.4MB/day (0.47😵 from the same period a year earlier [15]. Contrast this with average yearly gains in world oil production from 1987 to 2005 at 1.2MB/day (1.7😵. Yearly gains in the last 8 years ranged from -1.4MB/day (-1.9%; 1998-1999) to 3.3MB/day (4.1%; 2003-2004)[16].
Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) has suggested that the global production of conventional oil peaked in the spring of 2004 albeit at a rate of 23-GB/yr, not Hubbert's 13-GB/yr. Another peak oil proponent Kenneth S. Deffeyes predicted in his book Beyond Oil - The View From Hubbert's Peak that global oil production would hit a peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (Deffeyes has since revised his claim, and now argues that world oil production peaked on December 16 2005[17]). Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens has stated that worldwide conventional oil production will top out at 85MB/day.[18]
Of the three largest oil fields in the world, two have peaked. Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006, as did the huge Burgan field in Kuwait in November, 2005. Due to past overproduction, Cantarell is now declining rapidly, at a rate of -13% year over year. [19] In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, and its composite decline rate of producing fields is about 2%[20], thus implying that Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world may have peaked.
Chevron has launched the Will You Join Us? [21] campaign, seeking to alert the public to the possibility of petroleum depletion and encourage discussion. The campaign's website notes findings from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004: "Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world’s energy, and are expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. While supplies are currently abundant, they won’t last forever."
Traditional natural gas supplies are also under the constraints of production peaks, which especially affect specific geographic regions because of the difficulty of transporting the resource over long distances. Natural gas production may have peaked on the North American continent in 2003, with the possible exception of Alaskan gas supplies which cannot be developed until a pipeline is constructed. Natural gas production in the North Sea has also peaked. UK production was at its highest point in 2000, and declining production and increased prices are now a sensitive political issue there. Even if new extraction techniques yield additional sources of natural gas, like coalbed methane, the energy returned on energy invested will be much lower than traditional gas sources, which inevitably leads to higher costs to consumers of natural gas."