https://fortune.com/2024/11/03/presidential-poll-iowa-selzer-donald-trump-warning-kamala-harris-surge-midwest-blue-wall/
Iowa, a state thought to be 100% in Trump's bag, shows it's leaning towards Harris.
Harris would have been happy even if the poll had her 5 points behind Trump. 3 points over Trump might spell disaster for the orange baboon and if Iowa turns blue through some miracle it would show without a doubt just how useless mainstream media is at reporting public sentiment and how it informative it is to the average voter (ie not at all)
@Zahlanzi saidAnd if Texas goes blue?
https://fortune.com/2024/11/03/presidential-poll-iowa-selzer-donald-trump-warning-kamala-harris-surge-midwest-blue-wall/
Iowa, a state thought to be 100% in Trump's bag, shows it's leaning towards Harris.
Harris would have been happy even if the poll had her 5 points behind Trump. 3 points over Trump might spell disaster for the orange baboon and if Iowa turns blue thr ...[text shortened]... a is at reporting public sentiment and how it informative it is to the average voter (ie not at all)
Polling can only ever be as accurate as the people who answer frankly. I don't think many are.
Our reliable Media Watch program showed us tonight, with detailed quotes and sources, that not one American advertising-financed media organisation has been reporting sentiment truthfully because of manipulation by their advertisers. It was a shock to us because Australia has a non-commercial media organisation helping to keep the commercial media from outright lying and cover-ups. On reflection, we've been watching the Americans and the Murdoch lot for a long time and shouldn't really have been surprised.
@spruce112358 saidIt depends on each poll, how it is conducted, how the questions are framed, the number of people polled, how good the coverage is.
And if Texas goes blue?
Polling can only ever be as accurate as the people who answer frankly. I don't think many are.
If it's made by phone, i wonder just how many people ages 18-35 would even answer an unknown number, or say more than "no thank you" and hang up.
I view all polls suspiciously, all i know regarding this is that it is the gold standard of polls in the US, that no other is more respected. It's just that to poll 3 points ahead Trump in freakin Iowa, is disastrous for Trump. Trump should be double digits in a deep red state like that. Even if it is not accurate, there is a huge range in which Trump is still up excrement creek without a paddle. It can very well reveal sentiment towards Trump in the entire nation, and maybe Harris won't win Iowa but might win in purple-ish states
@Zahlanzi saidSeems plausable.
It depends on each poll, how it is conducted, how the questions are framed, the number of people polled, how good the coverage is.
If it's made by phone, i wonder just how many people ages 18-35 would even answer an unknown number, or say more than "no thank you" and hang up.
I view all polls suspiciously, all i know regarding this is that it is the gold standard of ...[text shortened]... wards Trump in the entire nation, and maybe Harris won't win Iowa but might win in purple-ish states
@Zahlanzi saidThey are doing a lot of post-processing to try to get better estimates. So if they don’t get enough Republicans they weight the ones they do get. But they can’t take into account turnout or crossover very well.
It depends on each poll, how it is conducted, how the questions are framed, the number of people polled, how good the coverage is.
If it's made by phone, i wonder just how many people ages 18-35 would even answer an unknown number, or say more than "no thank you" and hang up.
I view all polls suspiciously, all i know regarding this is that it is the gold standard of ...[text shortened]... wards Trump in the entire nation, and maybe Harris won't win Iowa but might win in purple-ish states
I doubt this race is that close.
@spruce112358 saidI’ve never been polled nor my weekly coffee, poker or golf groups, believe me or don’t!,
And if Texas goes blue?
Polling can only ever be as accurate as the people who answer frankly. I don't think many are.
I get so angry.
@AverageJoe1 saidBut are you gonna march on the Capitol this time?
I’ve never been polled nor my weekly coffee, poker or golf groups, believe me or don’t!,
I get so angry.
@AverageJoe1 saidAnger and politics are not good bedfellows. People vote how they vote. Accept the result, however it falls, and be an example to others.
I’ve never been polled nor my weekly coffee, poker or golf groups, believe me or don’t!,
I get so angry.
@Zahlanzi saidHow many points was Hillary Clinton leading Trump before she lost?
https://fortune.com/2024/11/03/presidential-poll-iowa-selzer-donald-trump-warning-kamala-harris-surge-midwest-blue-wall/
Iowa, a state thought to be 100% in Trump's bag, shows it's leaning towards Harris.
Harris would have been happy even if the poll had her 5 points behind Trump. 3 points over Trump might spell disaster for the orange baboon and if Iowa turns blue thr ...[text shortened]... a is at reporting public sentiment and how it informative it is to the average voter (ie not at all)
You cannot believe the polls.
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- 30 Dec 04
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@Metal-Brain said100%
How many points was Hillary Clinton leading Trump before she lost?
You cannot believe the polls.
@Metal-Brain saidin iowa?
How many points was Hillary Clinton leading Trump before she lost?
You cannot believe the polls.