Maybe this is too hot for the forums, but I think it could use a bit of argument. Is there an energy crisis?
My answer is yes. I think that we will run out of oil and that coal is too dirty, though the world will continue to use it for another two hundred years or so. Did you know that China is today… putting on line new coal powered, un-scrubbed, inefficient, sulfur rich coal power plants at the rate of one every two days? And that this rate will double in ten years? I also think that coal is about the only hope for energy wealth in the third world, and that this in itself constitutes a crisis with tremendous consequences for health and wealth of poor people everywhere.
I think that nuclear is a good way to go, but it carries an embroidered scarlet letter -- "D" for dangerous -- that precludes those with a dominant preservation ethic from accepting it, except in first world nations where needs outweigh the influence of the Luddite propaganda of the left. Two example nations are France and Japan. These are places where "Hybrid" autos make sense. In California though? Plug in your car each night and burn two hundred pounds of coal? And you get the diamond lane anyway in your fancy hybrid which means you are on petrol anyway... lol. Hybrids without nuclear (or other clean ) electrical generation is just kind of self indulgent scam.
Wind and solar are expensive, but will slowly come into their own at about 10% of world needs... in about 25 years from now? Maybe later. I think that in the immediate future (next 10 years) we will turn toward natural gas for transportation needs because methanol is too dirty (about the same as gasoline), whereas natural gas is eight times cleaner and about the same cost as methanol.
Hydrogen takes more energy to create IN A USABLE FORM than can be gained from its use. This one seems to be a no-brainer, except for green whackos. Brainless and Green just go good together though, so expect to see “Hydrogen For Mother Earth” signage pop up everywhere in Seattle in the coming years.
Now the economics -- and I will say right up front that I think this is the biggest reasons why the USA is hated world wide: jealousy and disbelief that we can be so greedy.
The US is approximately five percent of the worlds’ population and uses twenty-five percent of the worlds energy while generates about a fourth of the worlds wealth. More than this if you allow that we have an enormous "trade deficit" which says that we power much of the worlds economy with our purchasing with nothing in return to compensate us. So we are envied and hated. Because?
We go’ neener neener neener’ in the face of people paying $5 a gallon (and more) for gasoline while we pay half that. We have fifty soccer moms arriving in fifty suvs at every elementary school in the nation every morning, dropping off 1 or 2 kids and picking them up in their suvs every afternoon. We seem clueless on energy. Why? Grin. Because politicians exempted trucks from engine size restrictions when those genius’s passed the MPG vehicle standards. Sorry. I shouldn’t laugh at the mentally challenged. But they are such easy targets.
So because our wealth allows us to dominate purchasing, we are hated. We have not suffered yet. A little bit... but not enough to get car pools started to fill six kids per suv instead of 1 each.
I think that the economics of energy is Darwinian. Those with the money have plenty of energy and those who have tried to manipulate prices artificially (See Europe) thinking that the market can be manipulated by "making petrol painfully expensive through taxation" ... subsidize our cheap energy. News Flash! Energy markets are "global". Save all you want and tax all you want. All you are doing is subsidizing rich folk. It's basic economics. Small smirks and grins by all us damned Yanks is allowable here.
So what is the crisis? Earthlings are using up 35 billion barrels of oil per year and it will get used up. It might take twenty years or a hundred. But it will all go away. Now... say that right now you were to go out to your auto to make a wee trip to the market and realize that without oil, it is a giant dust collector. Think “all of France” to get the image of a big stagnant thing that does nothing.
And what about the ability to generate a fourth of the worlds wealth? Will it exist without subsidized cheap energy? It might mean that we will be eating each other in the great wastelands between cities as is the subject of so much "doom and gloom" sf.
Or we might adapt and use better, nearly infinite power resources like the sun. We as humans have the ability to build space habitats and/or power grids to capture the energy of the sun. Period. I think that in a thousand years – perhaps much less than that -- that the sun will be the primary source of all civilizations power needs. If we don't drown in our own gluttony and get blown to hell by angry Euros who are jealous that we aren't stupid enough to tax ourselves into "greenness" as they seem bent on doing.
I also have to take a poke at old BP. lol
Where are they going to be when Vladimir Putin socializes their assets in five years? Which he will do. I wonder if they will think it was wise to abandon the North Sea and head to Russia. We'll see. Romance is where one finds it, I guess.
I think we do have a energy problem, but am clueless on what to do about it.
Did you know that China is today… putting on line new coal powered, un-scrubbed, inefficient, sulfur rich coal power plants at the rate of one every two days? And that this rate will double in ten years?
Interesting enough the new coal plants are needed to run factories that, among other things, make alot of our compact florescent light bulbs which allow us to use less coal based electricity.
I have always wondered if stealing the winds energy has any effect on the weather patterns... esp if they were to be used on a large scale.
Originally posted by StarValleyWyYou are probably getting alittle too deep but that's ok. Sitting in front of a computer using more power than every light bulb in the house turned on at the same time you might think that there is a crisis. That's understandable. Will oil run out someday? Of course. Will the sun run out of energy some day? of course. (true by the way). Does china pollute? Yes and they're feeling th brunt, much like the USA in the 70's.
Maybe this is too hot for the forums, but I think it could use a bit of argument. Is there an energy crisis?
My answer is yes. I think that we will run out of oil and that coal is too dirty, though the world will continue to use it for another two hundred years or so. Did you know that China is today… putting on line new coal powered, un-scrubbed, in ...[text shortened]... rth Sea and head to Russia. We'll see. Romance is where one finds it, I guess.
Do Hybrid cars make sense? Probably not. The owners of the first hybrids are starting to find out that replacing the batteries are very expensive and that the batteries are loaded with lead etc so have to be disposed of in a way that cost extra money and pollution.
A quick word of advice to the mind numb liberals out there.
1. don't worry about what will happen after our generation. Let them worry about that just like earlier generations. It seems to have worked out so far for the last couple of thousand years!!!
2. Don't worry about oil use or global warming from CO2 emissions. If your other liberal friends are correct and the oil reserves are gone in a hundred years then all global warming will be solved in a hundred years (Neat huh?)
3. Forest protection. Simply read up and you'll find that in the 1700's there were very few trees withing a hundred miles of any major city. Why? because that was the fuel of the day. Where do you think they got their fuel? Also when Joe blow threw his cigarette out of his horse cart and started a forest fire, there was no way of putting it out. Yup that's right they didn't have fossil fuel burning airplanes to drop water on the fire so the entire forest would burn.
Bottom line, things are pretty damn good. Hell, the europeans have gone over 60 years without killing each other which is a major record.
I don't think there's an energy problem.
I read "Armed madhouse" by Greg Polansk and it made a lot of sense.
The whole oil diminishing debate was first opted in the late 50's. By a scientist. Who worked for SHELL.
His prediction was initially that oil would run out by 1996 or something silly.
The planet has used more oil than he predicted it could produce and the reserves are now higher than the total he ever predicted.
So, at a conservative guess there's at least 30 years of oil left.
The oil is trickling, because it makes it more expensive per liter, which in turn means the oil men get more money per barrel and the State more tax revenue.
Now, oil being expensive is good for the rich, but it also has this amusing side effect... Venuzuela's oil has become production worthy! And that's a bit of a blow to all involved. Well, except Southern America...they're laughing all the way to the petrol stations.
However, I do believe we should invest in a positive and long term answer to nuclear wastage. And nationalisation of the electricity net, obviously.
Originally posted by shavixmirYou think oil and oil products are expensive?
I don't think there's an energy problem.
I read "Armed madhouse" by Greg Polansk and it made a lot of sense.
The whole oil diminishing debate was first opted in the late 50's. By a scientist. Who worked for SHELL.
His prediction was initially that oil would run out by 1996 or something silly.
The planet has used more oil than he predicted it coul ...[text shortened]... term answer to nuclear wastage. And nationalisation of the electricity net, obviously.
IMHO it's still incredibly cheap, it's amazing stuff, try and push your car the same distance and at the same speed a litre of gas does and you'll get a whole new appreciation of just how much energy you're buying. Then take a good look at what goes into finding it, drilling for it, refining it and then transporting it to a nice handy gas station, at times from some of the most inhospitable parts of the world.
If you want to see who is really rorting the energy market try taking out the tax component, especially in Europe. In NZ gasoline is taxed as a percentage of the price rather than a flat rate, so when the price starts hiking the guvamint is larfing, their 'take' hikes as well.
Originally posted by StarValleyWysome good points.
Maybe this is too hot for the forums, but I think it could use a bit of argument. Is there an energy crisis?
My answer is yes. I think that we will run out of oil and that coal is too dirty, though the world will continue to use it for another two hundred years or so. Did you know that China is today… putting on line new coal powered, un-scrubbed, in ...[text shortened]... rth Sea and head to Russia. We'll see. Romance is where one finds it, I guess.
Economic necessity is a big driver for science and there are so many alternatives I see no energy crisis. As you point out, the US does itself a disservice by pricing energy too low. As oil decreases this will be even more stupid. The financial incentives of developing cheap alternatives will be huge. Look how Denmark, Germany and Japan have developed their green industries or how Toyota have mopped up in the USA.
It is amazing that in a few years we went from theory to the uranium bomb and then to the H bomb. Yet half a century later we are still decades away from safely using fusion technology despite spending billions. It shows how inefficient a centralised non competitive process is compare to the harsh competitiuve environment of war (and cold war).
Energy efficiency is now a huge area of science. Renewable forms of energy are incredibly cheaper than a decade ago. When fusion technology arrives, then wow!
Originally posted by hamltnblue1. You're assuming western civilisation is invincible. It's just downright bad planning, this way of life isn't sustainable. Isn't it better to change gradually than be forced into sudden changes?
You are probably getting alittle too deep but that's ok. Sitting in front of a computer using more power than every light bulb in the house turned on at the same time you might think that there is a crisis. That's understandable. Will oil run out someday? Of course. Will the sun run out of energy some day? of course. (true by the way). Does china pol ...[text shortened]... europeans have gone over 60 years without killing each other which is a major record.
2. When all the fossil fuels have been burned then there will be way too much carbon back in the biosphere. I'm wondering whether it's going to be a case of we run out, or we screw the biosphere up so much that we don't have the capabilities of getting any more oil.
3. You don't seem to even have a point there.
Things are good, I just rather we found a way of keeping them that way instead of the world finding out that resources are finite the hard way.
Originally posted by petrosianpupilProblem is with nuclear power - we can't mine the uranium fast enough to meet world demands at the moment.
some good points.
Economic necessity is a big driver for science and there are so many alternatives I see no energy crisis. As you point out, the US does itself a disservice by pricing energy too low. As oil decreases this will be even more stupid. The financial incentives of developing cheap alternatives will be huge. Look how Denmark, Germany and ...[text shortened]... ms of energy are incredibly cheaper than a decade ago. When fusion technology arrives, then wow!
The real solutions involve energy efficiency. Designing a building so it doesn't need aircon, energy efficient lightbulbs, fewer cars more public transport etc
Hydrogen powered cars are only any good when we figure out how to harvest hydrogen using bacteria, hopefully we're not too far away from doing that.
We need to make sure our "solutions" aren't shifting the problem elsewhere.
Originally posted by petrosianpupilWell said and I will just disagree with you on one point. You say that I point out that we do ourselves a disservice by pricing energy too low. I did not say any such thing. In fact I am rather tickled that we buy and sell as cheaply as possible. I would eliminate all taxes on it if it were up to me, so we could have even cheaper fuel.
As you point out, the US does itself a disservice by pricing energy too low.
Why? Because it gives us a further added edge in the world economy and I think that the US generates wealth per unit of energy used MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY than socialist governments and dictatorships.
My bottom line is that only wealth can cure poverty, and while trickle down is a basic law of our human nature... a LOT of trickle is better than a LITTLE trickle.
Is there an Energy Crisis?
I have no idea, but that never stopped me from giving an opinion before, so why start now?
I know a lot of "experts" say there is, but experts can be bought and sold like anyone else.
I tend to think the people we have overlooking these things are mostly career political hacks with one agenda .. to keep the gravey job .. thus, don't make waves.
At the same time I think we could have a massive power outage one of these days and am thus prepared to survive for awhile without power.
I was a boyscout (be prepared) before they went Euro
When it comes, the politicians will remind us of how they told us so (but didn't actually DO anything) .. i'll be outback putting a fire together.
Oil= go bye-bye within our lifetimes, but dirty old coal is around in great abundance, and we'll figure out how to use it efficiently and cleanly until we finally convert to solar energy.
The sun gives us all the power we need, if we're smart enough to do it right.
It's been awhile, but I believe I read somewhere that the earth's coal reserves should be good for something crazy like 2,000 years or somesuch, if we do it right.