http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/1258866.html
'"
BY JIM WYSS
WYSS@MIAMIHERALD.COM
As the United States and Europe still stagger under the financial crisis, Latin America finds itself in a unique position: leading a recovery.
Thanks to banking reforms and increased trade ties beyond the hemisphere, the region is about five months ahead of most industrialized nations in rebounding, said Augusto de la Torre, World Bank chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, on Tuesday.
While the real gross domestic product in Latin America is expected to shrink 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year, it should rebound about 3 percent next year, he said at the 13th Annual Americas Conference in Coral Gables.
In the past, Latin American economic woes have often led to regional bank panics, hyperinflation and political instability. This time the troubles have been largely contained.
Peru's GDP is expected to grow 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year, putting it among the handful of countries in the region that will see positive growth in 2009.
Peruvian Foreign Minister José Antonio García Belaúnde attributed the performance to a sound banking system, which steered clear of risky bets, and free trade agreements with the United States and China.
Indeed, de la Torre said nations such as Brazil, Argentina and Chile, which have strong trade ties with China, are recovering much faster than those that rely on U.S. trade. Mexico will see GDP fall about 7 percent this year amid stalled demand for its goods north of the border.
Despite the positive news, the region is still feeling the pain. Unemployment is rising, budget gaps are increasing, and about 8 million to 10 million people will be pushed into poverty, subsisting on less than $4 per day, said Pamela Cox, World Bank vice president for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Still, with a regional economy about the size of China but much higher rates of consumption, Latin America could be a powerful engine in the global recovery, de la Torre said.
``Latin America can actually help the world more than people think,'' he said.
"'
I have to disagree in part with the op piece, since the economy roughly equals China's, and China grows around 10%, Latin America is not leading, though it may be strongly influential in the recovery of the Western Hemisphere and maybe the atlantic bordering nations in general.
Still, the central point that Latin America's growth is more beneficial to our own economies than most people realize is a good one.
Indonesia has emerged from the recession relatively unscathed - and re-elected its president with aplomb right in the teeth of it. Ironically, I have personally been affected much more by this one than the far mor catclysmic Asian economic crisis of 1997.
I wonder to what degree RHP posters have themselves suffered at the hand of this recent downturn. And I also wonder whether there are any posters here who are living in Latin America who can offer any personal account of how the recession affected their evryday lives.
Originally posted by eljefejesusSure. But the main Asian economies are bigger and growing faster, so it only makes sense to assume they have more influence in getting the world economy back on track.
I would agree more with that opinion, although again, this one raised a good point that is more often overlooked.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraI agree. The Latin American economies seem to be in more of a secondary role in boosting growth in the world the the Asian primary role.
Sure. But the main Asian economies are bigger and growing faster, so it only makes sense to assume they have more influence in getting the world economy back on track.
- Joined
- 10 Jan 08
- Moves
- 23319
Originally posted by eljefejesusperu is the future superpower of south america, you'll see.
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/1258866.html
'"
BY JIM WYSS
WYSS@MIAMIHERALD.COM
As the United States and Europe still stagger under the financial crisis, Latin America finds itself in a unique position: leading a recovery.
Thanks to banking reforms and increased trade ties beyond the hemisphere, the region is about five months ahead of ...[text shortened]... growth is more beneficial to our own economies than most people realize is a good one.
sit and watch brazil crash and burn a horrible death.
Originally posted by trev33not a brazil fan, eh?
peru is the future superpower of south america, you'll see.
sit and watch brazil crash and burn a horrible death.
peru's doing well for now, but I don't see how they'll catch up to chile anytime soon. i wonder how many reforms they have on their plate and if they can keep growing quickly for a long time. it hasn't been peru's century in the 1900's but hey, it's a whole new game.