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Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Standard member bill718
    Enigma
    23 Jan '14 05:00
    2014 is here, and the mid term elections are just around the corner. As both sides gear up for another round of attack ad's, dirty tricks, lies, half truths, character assissination, and other little nuggets of wisdom in an attempt to win our votes, I'll open things by giving my prediction on the final outcome: Very little will change! I predict the House will remain controlled by the GOP, though they may lose 3-5 seats. The Senate will remain controlled my the Democrats, though they may win or lose 2-3 seats. President Omana's fading popularity is balanced by the public's anger over the recent government shutdown (which most blame the tea party for). So, meet the new boss...same as the old boss!
  2. 23 Jan '14 07:21 / 4 edits
    Originally posted by bill718
    2014 is here, and the mid term elections are just around the corner. As both sides gear up for another round of attack ad's, dirty tricks, lies, half truths, character assissination, and other little nuggets of wisdom in an attempt to win our votes, I'll open things by giving my prediction on the final outcome: Very little will change! I predict the House wi ...[text shortened]... t shutdown (which most blame the tea party for). So, meet the new boss...same as the old boss!
    The relative popularity and smoothness of the ACA roll out in Kentucky will contribute to Mitch McConnell's defeat. In fact, the ACA will be a non-issue generally.
  3. Standard member wittywonka
    Chocolate Expert
    23 Jan '14 12:44
    Originally posted by bill718
    The Senate will remain controlled my the Democrats, though they may win or lose 2-3 seats.
    I'm not convinced just yet.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2014#Latest_predictions

    Looks like West Virginia and South Dakota are unlikely holds for the Democrats. Beyond that, Republicans only need four gains from among Montana, Arkansas, Michigan, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Alaska, all of which are rated at least "toss-up" by one predictor.

    My guess is that Democrats squeak by with 51-49 or even with VP Biden as the 51-50 tiebreaker, but I'd still give Republicans better than 1-in-10 chances of finding a way to reclaim the majority.

    Either way, I'll look forward to the 2016 Senate elections when Republicans have to defend their gains from back in 2010.
  4. 23 Jan '14 13:13
    Originally posted by bill718
    2014 is here, and the mid term elections are just around the corner. As both sides gear up for another round of attack ad's, dirty tricks, lies, half truths, character assissination, and other little nuggets of wisdom in an attempt to win our votes, I'll open things by giving my prediction on the final outcome: Very little will change! I predict the House wi ...[text shortened]... t shutdown (which most blame the tea party for). So, meet the new boss...same as the old boss!
    To look at the future all you have to do is look at your past.

    Traditionally Congress has a turn over rate less than that of the former USSR regime.

    What we see before us is a government that never stops expanding. Why would anyone think that they would slam on the breaks and change course? Sure, you have a few groups to challenge the powers that be, but they are more or less just an irritant to be derided.

    Even if the GOP took over the entire world, nothing would change in the Federal government.
  5. 23 Jan '14 13:14
    Originally posted by JS357
    The relative popularity and smoothness of the ACA roll out in Kentucky will contribute to Mitch McConnell's defeat. In fact, the ACA will be a non-issue generally.
    I hope you are right. Everyone hates this guy.....except for the few Republicans left in the world.
  6. 23 Jan '14 16:52 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by JS357
    The relative popularity and smoothness of the ACA roll out in Kentucky will contribute to Mitch McConnell's defeat. In fact, the ACA will be a non-issue generally.
    Yeah, Kentucky is pretty poor state, so as long as the poor folks living on social security benefits get even more stuff from the government (expand Medicaid) they will vote to keep it coming.
  7. 23 Jan '14 23:44
    Originally posted by Eladar
    Yeah, Kentucky is pretty poor state, so as long as the poor folks living on social security benefits get even more stuff from the government (expand Medicaid) they will vote to keep it coming.
    Yes on Ky being a net taker of $$ from the fed govt.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/is-your-state-a-net-giver-or-taker-of-federal-taxes/

    Its GOP senators McC and Rand, and 5 out of 6 GOP Representatives, do a good job of milking while criticizing milk. Contrast with Minnesota which has 2 Dem senators and a majority of Dem representatives.

    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/KY
    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/MN