http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/value-over-replacement-justice.html
Take a background in statistics; dollop on a history of working for Baseball Prospectus and add in a heaping scoop of political junkie and, presto, you have the World's perfect political commentator.
Make what you will with this admission, but I love Nate Silver.
There. I've said it.