I seriously doubt we'll see a nuke launched in any of our lifetimes. Still, if I had to pick the nation most likely to launch the next nuke, my pics in order of most to least likely:
1) I think it would be the U.S. against a non-nuclear country.
2) I don't see Russia launching nukes because it only has animosity with Europe. For now, NATO still stands. If NATO ever gets dissolved, I think it stands a good chance of being the next to launch. Russia goals of expansion will continue to live as long as Putin reigns (he compared himself to Peter the Great, who significantly expanded Russia's borders).
3) Israel against an Arab nation. I don't see this happening soon, and even Saudi Arabia has softened its outlook on on Israel, probably because of the war against their greatest rival, Iran. Israel would have to be attacked first before they would likely use such measures, but Gaza shows how far they're willing to go to retaliate.
4) Pakistan/India. They're neighbors with bad blood and nukes. When your biggest rival shares the same border and is nuclear, it's a powder keg. Realistically, they're at a tense stalemate. However: India has tense relations with China as well. If either were to launch a nuke first, they may have a slight edge. Highly unlikely though, China is like a sleeping monster.
5) North Korea. They're not a warmongering nation but really want to show strength to the world. Now that they're military allies with Russia, I think they're less afraid of retaliation.
6) China. Also not a warmongering nation but there are tensions with the U.S. that have gotten uncomfortable, especially over Taiwan.
7) France/UK. Outside of conflict direct conflict with Russia, I can't see them ever going to war, let alone using nukes. As long as NATO can remain strong, these nations using nukes is near zero
@vivify said2) The Russian also have beef with a lot of Asian countries. In particular, China and Japan.
I seriously doubt we'll see a nuke launched in any of our lifetimes. Still, if I had to pick the nation most likely to launch the next nuke, my pics in order of most to least likely:
1) I think it would be the U.S. against a non-nuclear country.
2) I don't see Russia launching nukes because it only has animosity with Europe. For now, NATO still stands. If NATO ever ...[text shortened]... r, let alone using nukes. As long as NATO can remain strong, these nations using nukes is near zero
3) Israel hates the Aryan Iranians far more than their Semitic cousins. In fact they have scriptures saying "Persia must be destroyed".
@AThousandYoung saidAs fellow BRICS members with a common enemy in the U.S., do they really have animosity?
2) The Russian also have beef with a lot of Asian countries. In particular, China and Japan.
Japan? What issues do they have decades after the Russo-Japanese war?
@vivify
What if Iran already has nukes and is just reluctant to use one against another nuclear armed nation? And doesn't want to admit they are in violation of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons they signed?
Israel does not admit to having nukes. Why would Iran?
The most likely next country to use a nuke would use it in defense against a nation that does not know they are attacking a nuclear armed nation.
@vivify
Trump tells United Nations General Assembly that North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un "is on a suicide mission" and stressed the world is in a time of peril.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-un-north-korean-leader-suicide-mission-n802596
Kim Jong Un is not on a suicide mission. Funny how everyone is suicidal but Trump. Why do people believe his crap? He is the one who wants to wipe countries off the map. He wanted to nuke North Korea and blame another country for it according to Michael Schmidt. If true, that would make the US under Trump the most likely threat for a nuclear first strike.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-discussed-using-nuclear-weapon-north-korea-2017-blaming-someone-rcna65120
@vivify saidWell, are we talking a relatively small tactical nuke, smuggled into somewhere, or a full on, MIRV-loaded ICBM? (Sub-launched seems more likely here. But I don't think anyone knows if any country's military would allow it. Military brass are the most learned on exactly what a nuclear war would mean. Ever see Crimson Tide?)
I seriously doubt we'll see a nuke launched in any of our lifetimes. Still, if I had to pick the nation most likely to launch the next nuke, my pics in order of most to least likely:
1) I think it would be the U.S. against a non-nuclear country.
2) I don't see Russia launching nukes because it only has animosity with Europe. For now, NATO still stands. If NATO ever ...[text shortened]... r, let alone using nukes. As long as NATO can remain strong, these nations using nukes is near zero
Also, you seem focused on some independent nation crossing the MAD line, i.e. state-sponsored. Any thought on a terrorist group (left or right) (granted, maybe still state-sponsored) smuggling one into another country?
@vivify saidThe USA has already nuked another country.
I seriously doubt we'll see a nuke launched in any of our lifetimes. Still, if I had to pick the nation most likely to launch the next nuke, my pics in order of most to least likely:
1) I think it would be the U.S. against a non-nuclear country.
2) I don't see Russia launching nukes because it only has animosity with Europe. For now, NATO still stands. If NATO ever ...[text shortened]... r, let alone using nukes. As long as NATO can remain strong, these nations using nukes is near zero
@vivify saidConflicts over territory. Both Japan and Russia claim sovereignty over the Kuril Islands.
As fellow BRICS members with a common enemy in the U.S., do they really have animosity?
Japan? What issues do they have decades after the Russo-Japanese war?
Sarah Paine short about China/Russia land conflicts:
@Suzianne saidHonestly, I didn't think of that.
Well, are we talking a relatively small tactical nuke, smuggled into somewhere, or a full on, MIRV-loaded ICBM? (Sub-launched seems more likely here. But I don't think anyone knows if any country's military would allow it. Military brass are the most learned on exactly what a nuclear war would mean. Ever see Crimson Tide?)
Also, you seem focused on some independe ...[text shortened]... ist group (left or right) (granted, maybe still state-sponsored) smuggling one into another country?
Russia had a mercenary group working for him in Ukraine; using another mercenary to group to deploy nuclear warheads would be less costly politically; same for any nation aligned with terrorist groups.
Scary thought.
@AThousandYoung saidThank you. Interesting take.
Conflicts over territory. Both Japan and Russia claim sovereignty over the Kuril Islands.
Sarah Paine short about China/Russia land conflicts:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/elJtRqY4k-0
@KingDavid403 saidI asked which country will use the next nuke; not which country used the first.
The USA has already nuked another country.
@vivify saidYeah, I see these other options as more likely than an actual launch of a ballistic missile. Once you launch, you can't hide what you did. Here's another thought: what about a group, or another country, hacking into the launch system and basically forcing a silo to launch out its missile without the okay from the country owning it? This might involve something like a human-written virus overwriting the launch coding system. Or to add to the nightmare scenario, how about an AI writing the code and inserting it into another country's launch sequence? How long will actual thinking humans still be in control of all these nukes?
Honestly, I didn't think of that.
Russia had a mercenary group working for him in Ukraine; using another mercenary to group to deploy nuclear warheads would be less costly politically; same for any nation aligned with terrorist groups.
Scary thought.
Answers always prompt even more questions.
@vivify saidI would expect a rogue player, not necessarily a state, to detonate one--not necessarily by delivering it on target. I could imagine a terrorist organization such as Boko Haram, al Quaida, ISIS, Hezbollah, or Hamas somehow getting its hands on a finished and functional nuclear weapon and attempting to blackmail the West or Israel into making concessions by threatening to detonate it, and then actually inadvertently detonating it.
I seriously doubt we'll see a nuke launched in any of our lifetimes. Still, if I had to pick the nation most likely to launch the next nuke, my pics in order of most to least likely:
1) I think it would be the U.S. against a non-nuclear country.
2) I don't see Russia launching nukes because it only has animosity with Europe. For now, NATO still stands. If NATO ever ...[text shortened]... r, let alone using nukes. As long as NATO can remain strong, these nations using nukes is near zero
@moonbus saidYou've just made a good point as to why nations like Iran should never get a nuke.
I would expect a rogue player, not necessarily a state, to detonate one--not necessarily by delivering it on target. I could imagine a terrorist organization such as Boko Haram, al Quaida, ISIS, Hezbollah, or Hamas somehow getting its hands on a finished and functional nuclear weapon and attempting to blackmail the West or Israel into making concessions by threatening to detonate it, and then actually inadvertently detonating it.