Scientific evidence about overconfidence in war

Here is a link to a study of war games that shows a correlation between overconfidence at the beginning to poorer performance at the end of the game. The link:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9374-overconfidence-is-a-disadvantage-in-war-finds-study.html

“One wishes that members of the Bush administration had known about this research before they initiated invasion of Iraq three years ago,” he adds. “I think it would be fair to say that the general opinion of political scientists is that the Bush administration was overconfident of victory, and that the Iraq war is a debacle.”

Originally posted by Sambo69
“One wishes that members of the Bush administration had known about this research before they initiated invasion of Iraq three years ago,” he adds. “I think it would be fair to say that the general opinion of political scientists is that the Bush administration was overconfident of victory, and that the Iraq war is a debacle.”

apparently "most political scientists" cannot remember as far back as WWII, the Vietnam War, or the Korean War, when looking for comparisons. i hope they are not drawing their paychecks from public funds.

Originally posted by Draxus
It is that same quote that makes this study completely worthless.

Science is not political and once it becomes political it is obviously tainted from there on out. Their last statement about president bush makes me doubt that their findings are anything but staged.

Originally posted by zeeblebot
the quote is from (Prof.?) Turchin, whose opinion was solicited by the new scientist but is apparently not associated with the study's authors (so far as we can tell from the new scientist article).

Originally posted by Sambo69
“One wishes that members of the Bush administration had known about this research before they initiated invasion of Iraq three years ago,” he adds. “I think it would be fair to say that the general opinion of political scientists is that the Bush administration was overconfident of victory, and that the Iraq war is a debacle.”

Originally posted by Sambo69
I'm sure that most people agree.

Originally posted by Draxus
Which is why it must be true, right?

Originally posted by Sambo69
Which is why George Bush is liability to America.

Originally posted by AThousandYoung
STANG LEADS TO SAMBO69!

Originally posted by Delmer
LOL! But today we must have sympathy for both since all of Australia must be in mourning after getting up at 1 a.m. to watch soccer.

Originally posted by Draxus
It is that same quote that makes this study completely worthless.

Science is not political and once it becomes political it is obviously tainted from there on out. Their last statement about president bush makes me doubt that their findings are anything but staged.

Originally posted by jmarks
"Science is not political"

What on earth does that mean?