05 Mar 09
Just out of curiosity, who out there is still in the game? Does anyone have any hope of things turning around in the near future.....if at all? I remember a while back people were saying what a great buying oppurtunity it was when the DOW reached 8500. I tried trying to instill some caution into them but to no avail. I just hope they didn't lose their shirts. Well, its now almost 6500. How low will it go?
Speculations?
05 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeyI have been looking into this for a short time as of late, although I have very little tied up in stocks, I believe it should level off around 3500 which in my opinion is not far off from where it should be. I think way to many people have gotten tied up with it.
Just out of curiosity, who out there is still in the game? Does anyone have any hope of things turning around in the near future.....if at all? I remember a while back people were saying what a great buying oppurtunity it was when the DOW reached 8500. I tried trying to instill some caution into them but to no avail. I just hope they didn't lose their shirts. Well, its now almost 6500. How low will it go?
Speculations?
Also I am not a brilliant person of course, but it has been very intresting to me how it has all went down(no pun intended).
If you look, the stock market in its max configuration on say msn, there was a slow but steady climb from 1950 till around 1987 which it all seems to be fine then from 1990- 2590pts it grow in amazing leaps and bounds, in 10 short years it grew to 10,729 in December of 1999. Thats over 8000pts in a short 10 years. Since then, in the next 7 or so years it rose another few thousand, but in my opinion it should in all reality be around 4000.
That makes me ask what happened in America to make the stock market skyrocket from 2500pts to almost 14000 in such a very short time.
If anyone knows or has an opinion on the matter I am all ears.
05 Mar 09
Originally posted by torch71Look at what happened in the Japanese stock market, it's even more mind boggling.
I have been looking into this for a short time as of late, although I have very little tied up in stocks, I believe it should level off around 3500 which in my opinion is not far off from where it should be. I think way to many people have gotten tied up with it.
Also I am not a brilliant person of course, but it has been very intresting to me how it has ...[text shortened]... 000 in such a very short time.
If anyone knows or has an opinion on the matter I am all ears.
05 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeyThe Baltic Dry Index appears to be turning around. This leading indicator may be a sign things are changing.
Just out of curiosity, who out there is still in the game? Does anyone have any hope of things turning around in the near future.....if at all? I remember a while back people were saying what a great buying oppurtunity it was when the DOW reached 8500. I tried trying to instill some caution into them but to no avail. I just hope they didn't lose their shirts. Well, its now almost 6500. How low will it go?
Speculations?
You can't time the market. When it does turn around, you better be invested or else you will miss the big gains. My advice is to spread your investment cash evenly over several months once indications are that we're approaching bottom.
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090305.wrshipping05/BNStory/Business/home
05 Mar 09
2 edits
right now, everyone is worried about the banks
once the banks are able to get rid of all their toxic assets, they will be able to resume lending - once that happens, I think the stock market will see a major rebound.
but -- getting rid of all those toxic assets -- that could take quite awhile -- and the longer it takes, the more stocks will fall.
it seems very likely that 5-10 years from now, stocks will be at a much higher level than they are today - even if they drop another 1000-2000 pts in the short term. But I wouldn't want a lot of money in the stock market right now if I'd need to withdraw within the next few years.
05 Mar 09
Originally posted by MelanerpesThat's what people were saying in the early 90s about the Nikkei. More than fifteen years later, the stock market hasn't returned to that level.
right now, everyone is worried about the banks
once the banks are able to get rid of all their toxic assets, they will be able to resume lending - once that happens, I think the stock market will see a major rebound.
but -- getting rid of all those toxic assets -- that could take quite awhile -- and the longer it takes, the more stocks will fall.
...[text shortened]... lot of money in the stock market right now if I'd need to withdraw within the next few years.
06 Mar 09
1 edit
I get the sense that people "in the know" saw what was coming and knew pretty much where things are headed, however, they did not care to share this information with the average Joe. So if I'm right are they justified in not warning the general public? After all, you are either faced with people losing a large portion of their retirement etc, or the market crashing altogether if someone screams fire in the theatre. Of course, there is and was a fire in the theatre, but perhaps they avoided a stamped that would have caused more damage than good.
Having said that, if what I say is true, were the "powers that be" justified for not warning the public adequately, in fact, perhaps they know it will get far worse than we can fathom right now. If so, are they justified in keeping us in the dark?
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeyThose that were "in the know" could have taken action sooner to head off the crisis. They took their time until the bailout bill needed to be passed, then all the sudden it was important to act fast and pass the bill before anybody could read it. Then the market crashed anyway.
I get the sense that people "in the know" saw what was coming and knew pretty much where things are headed, however, they did not care to share this information with the average Joe. So if I'm right are they justified in not warning the general public? After all, you are either faced with people losing a large portion of their retirement etc, or the market ...[text shortened]... r worse than we can fathom right now. If so, are they justified in keeping us in the dark?
They had to tell us about it sometime. Sooner would have been better.
Everything about this stinks.
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeyHow low will it go? In my non professional opinion about 4,700. This should clear out the panic sellers, then the market can begin to stabilize, and move ahead. Fasten your seat belts...the corporate bloodletting is not over yet.😏
Just out of curiosity, who out there is still in the game? Does anyone have any hope of things turning around in the near future.....if at all? I remember a while back people were saying what a great buying oppurtunity it was when the DOW reached 8500. I tried trying to instill some caution into them but to no avail. I just hope they didn't lose their shirts. Well, its now almost 6500. How low will it go?
Speculations?
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by bill718you have to look at it in terms of timelines. No one knows how low it will go but it for sure will go back up. The level it's at today will seem cheap in 10 years so if you're investment horizon is off in the distance, start buying small amounts soon. It won't go below fair value.
How low will it go? In my non professional opinion about 4,700. This should clear out the panic sellers, then the market can begin to stabilize, and move ahead. Fasten your seat belts...the corporate bloodletting is not over yet.😏
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by Metal BrainYou assume that the "powers that be" did not have some sort of divested interest in letting it all happen.
Those that were "in the know" could have taken action sooner to head off the crisis. They took their time until the bailout bill needed to be passed, then all the sudden it was important to act fast and pass the bill before anybody could read it. Then the market crashed anyway.
They had to tell us about it sometime. Sooner would have been better.
Everything about this stinks.
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by uzlessOptimism!!! I knew I would find some out there somewhere. Thanks for that. 😀
you have to look at it in terms of timelines. No one knows how low it will go but it for sure will go back up. The level it's at today will seem cheap in 10 years so if you're investment horizon is off in the distance, start buying small amounts soon. It won't go below fair value.
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeyNo, I do not assume that.
You assume that the "powers that be" did not have some sort of divested interest in letting it all happen.
I have been saying all along that this economic crisis was manufactured. That is why I am in favor of banning short selling. the SEC is letting naked shorting take place. Corruption is rampant.
http://www.themoneymasters.com/faqs.htm
I even warned people this would happen ever since I learned about the repeal of Glass-Steagall. Most ignored me and now regret it. All they had to do was read the link below.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html
06 Mar 09
Originally posted by whodeygotta tell ya, no one has been "in the know" as you call it. some folks, more pessimistic than others, pulled out earlier. some, more optimistic than others, got back in too early. there are always folks who try to time the market. there are also some who test the long held theory that you hold on no matter what.
I get the sense that people "in the know" saw what was coming and knew pretty much where things are headed, however, they did not care to share this information with the average Joe. So if I'm right are they justified in not warning the general public? After all, you are either faced with people losing a large portion of their retirement etc, or the market ...[text shortened]... r worse than we can fathom right now. If so, are they justified in keeping us in the dark?
I have tried a mixture. kept some positions, and have not realized the 40 % loss or more reflected in current value -- but if anything comes back, I think what I'm into will.
I also pulled a lot out of equities and went into triple tax free bonds and CDs.
Thus, while I don't see a lot of income now from these, the cash is guaranteed. I even moved out of money markets and into guaranteed bank deposits.
Still, I'm guessing I won't want to retire when I originally planned as I wouldn't have enough income to have fun with and wind up working even harder just to make ends meet. Plus, I have an 88-yr old mother who seems to insist on sticking around despite her shrinking resources. So I've got to keep income going to make sure she is ok.
So each person has different circumstances and no one set of moves no one kind of advice will probably prove out for everyone.
It is a lot like how to survive in quicksand under shallow water --you lay low, spread yourself out, and try to get that shallow water to float you over the stuff that otherwise will suck you right down.