The great environment poll

I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.
1. I believe it to be true
2. I believe the opposite to be true
3. I believe neither this nor the opposite is true
4. I have no opinion about it.

Example:
The number of apples in the world (tNoAitW) is rising.
Answer:
1. If you think tNoAitW is rising
2. If you think tNoAitW is falling
3. If you think tNoAitW is relatively trendless
4. If you have no opinion on tNoAitW.

Right. So let's get this started.

A. Global temperatures have a positive trend.
B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.
C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.
D. C02 concentration has a positive trend
E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.
F. The sea level has an upward trend.
G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

My answers

A. Global temperatures have a positive trend.
1

B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.
1

C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.
1

D. C02 concentration has a positive trend
1

E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.
1

F. The sea level has an upward trend.
1

G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures.
1

H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.
2

Originally posted by Palynka
I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.
1. I believe it to be true
2. I believe the opposite to be true
3. I believe neither this nor the opposite is true
4. I have no opinion about it.

Example:
The number of apples in the world (tNoAitW) is rising.
Answer:
1. If you think tNoAitW is rising
2. If you think tNoAitW is lar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

==A. Global temperatures have a positive trend.==

1

==B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.==

1

==C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.==

1

==D. C02 concentration has a positive trend==

1

==E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.==

1

==F. The sea level has an upward trend.==

1 (though slighter than many models projected)

==G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures.==

1

==H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.==

4 (don't know)


The amazing thing is that none of my answers indicate whether I think MMGW exists or is or is not a problem for mankind. All the "1"s notwithstanding, it could be that manmade CO2 emissions are not substantial enough to have a significant effect on global temps. It could be that man made CO2 emissions have a positive relationship with global temps and CO2 concentration, but not a significant one and that any significant increase in global temps is a product of other factors.

This is a good example of how polling questions can be phrased in a manner that supports one political agenda. I'm not at all accusing you of doing this intentionally or anything to that effect. I'm just pointing it out.

Edit: You should add one last question:

Man made greenhouse gas emissions are primarily or at least largely responsible for the increase in global temps in the past century and a half.

my answer: 4

Originally posted by sh76
polling

This thread is intended to be just about the poll. Obviously, if this is successful I intend to follow it up with a discussion thread.

In past discussions here on global warming (mainly involving MacSwain), the main focus was on the issue that CO2 cannot possibly be an important factor because the great majority of greenhouse gas in the earth's atmosphere is water vapor - with CO2 making up only a very small % of the total. As such, even if you increased CO2 at an extremely rapid rate, it still wouldn't increase the total amount greenhouse gas by anything more than a trivial amount.

The argument has been that the global warming alarmists ignore water vapor, and thus make CO2 seem like a much bigger factor than it really is -- therefore, any warming that is occurring is likely due to normal cycles and other natural effects.

But I came across this article when doing a Google search on "global warming water vapor"

http://www.slate.com/id/2182564/

the article makes the following points:

1. global-warming skeptics argue that water vapor makes up 98% of the atmosphere - which seems to be based on a 1991 article by Richard Lindzen that cited a 1990 IPCC report - but the 1990 report doesn't appear to contain that number. According to both the IPCC and many global climate models, the real number is 60-70%.

2. the amount of water vapor that a given volume of air can hold rises when temperature is higher. So anything that is causing the atmosphere to get warmer, will allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. It may well be the case that it's not the CO2 itself that's the main problem - but it's role in allowing the atmosphere to hold a lot more water vapor.

3. a common skeptical argument is that the clouds caused by water vapor actually help to block solar radiation - and this compensates for the greenhouse effect, but a study in the Alps showed that this wasn't the case - despite the increasing clouds over a 7 year period, temperatures still rose steadily.

Please keep this thread about the responses to the poll.

Originally posted by Palynka
I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.
1. I believe it to be true
2. I believe the opposite to be true
3. I believe neither this nor the opposite is true
4. I have no opinion about it.

Example:
The number of apples in the world (tNoAitW) is rising.
Answer:
1. If you think tNoAitW is rising
2. If you think tNoAitW is lar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

A. Global temperatures have a positive trend -- 1 (recent time frame)
The issue is whether or not it's just part of a normal climate cycle.

B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures -- 4
That's the CORE issue in the global warming debate. I'm still undecided. Much hinges on the water vapor question which I just posted about.

C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures -- 1
greenhouse gases are always present. I assume you mean the increase in greenhouse gases.

D. C02 concentration has a positive trend -- 1

E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration -- 1 (probably)
This is another CORE issue. It is very important to nail this one down firmly.

F. The sea level has an upward trend. -- 1
although this isn't the main thing I'm concerned about regarding rapid global warming, insofar that this warming is occurring.

G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures -- 4
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years -- 4
I know that we're currently at the lowest part of the sunspot cycle. but I'm not sure how much solar activity explains the climate data


Overall: there are two groups of people. Those who want to have a legitimate discussion about this very important issue - and are willing to go wherever the facts and logic take them. And there are those (on both sides) who have already made up their minds and are going to play political games. I am looking forward to whatever input you are planning to offer.

A - 3 (1 if by positive you mean a numerical value and not whether there is a 'good' or 'bad' effect).

B - 1

C - 1

D - 3 (1 if by positive you mean a numerical value and not whether there is a 'good' or 'bad' effect).

E - 1

F - 1 (Meaning that sea levels are rising)

G, H - I do not know enough about how solely solar activity affects the temperature of the planet or recent solar activity.

Originally posted by Palynka
I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.

Interesting. I wonder where you're going with this one.

A. Global temperatures have a positive trend.
B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.
C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.
D. C02 concentration has a positive trend
E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.
F. The sea level has an upward trend.
G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years

A = 4
B = 1
C = 4
D = 1
E = 1
F = What the hell do you actually mean with an upward trend here? Do I think sea levels are rising? Yes. Islands are disappearing.
G = 1
H = 4 (if they are higher, they're not high enough. Bring on the bloody heatwave!)

Originally posted by Palynka
I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.
1. I believe it to be true
2. I believe the opposite to be true
3. I believe neither this nor the opposite is true
4. I have no opinion about it.

Example:
The number of apples in the world (tNoAitW) is rising.
Answer:
1. If you think tNoAitW is rising
2. If you think tNoAitW is ...[text shortened]... lar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

A. 1
B. 1
C. 1
D. 1
E. 1 (compared to recent years)
F. 1
G. 4
H. 4

A. Global temperatures have a positive trend.
B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.
C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.
D. C02 concentration has a positive trend
E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.
F. The sea level has an upward trend.
G. Higher solar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

A. 1 - over short and medium terms certainly... not over millions of years 😛
B. 1 - yes... rises in CO2 slightly precede global temperature rises
C. 1 - I'd word it as higher concentrations, but that's just me being picky
D. 1
E. 1 I'd also note that our agricultural activity has changed the landscape affecting the albedo effect, though I'm not sure to what end.
F. 1 Though not as severely as a lot of media has led many people to think
G. 1 And the extent to which this is true is dependent on many other factors
H. 3 We're in the trough of one 11 year cycle right now, but relative to 400 years ago there appears to be a lot of activity. Over thousands of years we're just below average.

B. Higher concentration of C02 increases world temperatures.
C. The presence of greenhouse gases increases world temperatures.
D. C02 concentration has a positive trend
E. Human activity has lead to an increase in C02 concentration.

If one was worried about the restriction of the questions to CO2 only, one could simply substitute "greenhouse gases" in each case. Human activity is leading to increased emissions of methane and water vapour too.

Originally posted by Palynka
I'll state a few things. Please indicate with numbers your responses.
1. I believe it to be true
2. I believe the opposite to be true
3. I believe neither this nor the opposite is true
4. I have no opinion about it.

Example:
The number of apples in the world (tNoAitW) is rising.
Answer:
1. If you think tNoAitW is rising
2. If you think tNoAitW is ...[text shortened]... lar activity increases world temperatures.
H. Solar activity has been high in the last years.

4,4,1,4,1,4,1,4

Bump for anyone who has yet to cast their opinion.