Originally posted by Teinosuke to Kmax87
If Trump is really seeking an alliance with Putin's Russia, there won't be war with Iran, a key Russian ally.
This is not meant as a criticism of Teinosuke (whom I regard as one of the most educated
and generally thoughtful writers at RHP), but the superficial (at best) level of geopolitical
analysis here shows a lack of experience in studying history or international relations.
"Iran, a key Russian ally."
It seems premature to be certain of that conclusion. It could play out that way but perhaps not.
While it's true that Russia and Iran are both allies of Assad in Syria's civil war, it remains
to be seen how far their convergence of perceived interests will extend elsewhere.
First of all, please don't exaggerate the closeness between Russia and Iran.
Given that both Russia and Iran face economic sanctions from the West, they naturally
have turned to each other as trading partners. But I know of no evidence that Russia
has yet been supplying Iran with advanced weapons. In fact, in 2010 Russia cancelled
an Iranian order for arms (including the S-300 SAMs, which Iran wanted to deter air strikes
by the USA or Israel). Iran then went to a Swiss court about Russia's 'breach of contract'.
It was not until 2016 that Russia agreed to deliver (eventually) the S-300 SAMs to Iran.
Iran's arsenal remains largely based upon American arms inherited from the Shah's regime.
Although the overwhelming majority of Russians (according to a survey) have a favourable
view of Iran, Russia's leaders have been divided about whether to develop a real alliance
with Iran (which inevitably would worsen Russia's relations with the USA) or just to use
Russia's relationship with Iran as a bargaining chip to get concessions from the USA.
Putin might well be ready to sell out Iran if US President Trump can offer Russia the right deal.
If I were advising the Islamic Republic of Iran's leaders, then I would say that they would
be foolhardy to assume that Russia must be a completely reliable ally.
Teinosuke may be right in assuming that nothing that US President Trump could offer
Putin would be enough to convince him that Russia would benefit from the USA invading
Iran and attempting to install a US puppet regime in Iran.
'Every day is Ashura and every place is Karbala!'