Debates
02 Nov 22
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
I’ll assume average estimate results as listed above:
House +28R
Senate +4R
@athousandyoung saidExcellent, let's hope you are right.https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
I’ll assume average estimate results as listed above:
House +28R
Senate +4R
https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/insights/midterm-elections-preview-potential-outcomes-and-market-implications
The latest polling and most projections suggest that Republicans will regain control of the House, while Democrats hold on to the Senate. Hence, a divided government...
Post-World War II, the incumbent party has, on average, lost 12 seats in the House and one or two in the Senate in the first midterm after a new president’s election
I revise my prediction to +2R in Senate